Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Hey @Tiger in NC read this for an education. Your comment about it being 'mathematically impossible' for Trump to win is shown for the crap it is. Election Update: Democrats Should Panic … If The Polls Still Look Like This In A Week | FiveThirtyEight
This is what a rigorous analysis is, not your partisan clap trap. Now don't deflect. I'm not predicting a Trump win....hell I'm not even voting for him. Your offense is you are superficial and haven't a clue to what's really happening. BTW I make no claims to divine knowledge. I have no idea other than your certainty is either ignorance or 'whistling while walk past a Cemetary at midnight'...so the ghosts don't get you.

 

im starting to believe the silent majority of real working americans who keep getting shit on and pissed off about all this racial, millennial safe space, woe is me bullshit is going to make a bigger difference than anyone is accounting for in this election. something no polls will show.

because they cant speak up and be honest about whats happening, their vote is the only way to be heard.

 

Winston, I bet you guys have missed me terribly bad. A week away from cell phones, laptops, ipads and the like are quite nice but after about five days I started craving some news. Nevertheless, Turks and Caicos ain't a bad spot to get stuck if you are ever looking for a place to get stuck.

Now to your point. I never get too excited or too down about any one article or poll. Instead I watch trends, I follow demographic shifts in states and particularly battleground states, I watch the state polls and the fluctuations of those polls. I also take into account historical precedents like the fact that the country seems to prefer the opposition party after a two term president, or how the current presidents approval rating affects the race positively or negatively for his party and of course things like the economy. That said, in spite of Donald Trump doing a good job of keeping his message more disciplined and Hillary Clinton being completely off the trail for a week, not being transparent about her pneumonia and for her supposed gaffe about "deplorables," if the election were held today she would still win and most likely win handily. Further, we've now had a week with her back on the trail and Trump again slipping off script and you see the polls bouncing back in the battleground states to where they were before. This trend will continue I predict, especially after the first debate.

From recent polling, the current averages in battlegrounds look like this:

New Mexico, Clinton +12
Mississippi, Trump +2
Arizona, Tied
Texas, Trump +4
Michigan, Clinton +5
Pennsylvania, Clinton +6
Ohio, Trump +2
New Hampshire, Clinton +6
Nevada, Trump +1
Wisconsin, Clinton +5
Virginia, Clinton +8
North Carolina, Trump +1
Iowa, Trump +3
Georgia, Trump +4
Florida, Clinton +2
Colorado, Clinton +4

So all of this polling is from the past 10 days or so. After what has no doubt been Trump's best 10 days of the election, I just don't see where, mathematically, he has a chance in hell.

Funny things is, if you put John Kasich against Clinton he wins in a landslide. Alternatively, if you put Sanders against Trump, Sanders wins in a landslide.

 

Well, good thing you are not a math teacher.