Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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  1. Bayou Tiger

    Bayou Tiger Founding Member

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    You forgetting Trump has set records in turnout?
     
  2. HalloweenRun

    HalloweenRun Founding Member

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    Trump is a terrible human; the only one worse is Hillary. Imagine, and they are both running for president.
    "There's a hard rain a gonna fall."
     
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  3. shane0911

    shane0911 Helping lost idiots find their village

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    When given the choice of 2 evils, pick the one you haven't tried
     
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  4. TwistedTiger

    TwistedTiger Founding Member

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    10 years ago who thought an America hating muslim would ever be president? It just wasn't plausible, not even close.
     
  5. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    I'm not sure who you are referring to.....I'm guessing, based upon your track record it must be President Obama. If he is a Muslim, he is the worst one ever....let's see....he enjoys beer, pork, doesn't make his wife wear a head scarf, and worst of all.....says that he is not a muslim. I am also not sure why you think he hates America....it's baffling to me. I get it that you don't agree with his policies and that is certainly your right to do so, but demonizing the man....accusing him of lying about his faith, asserting that he hates America......those are the kind of things that make people like me not take you seriously. to your larger point about the plausibility of a Trump, @Jmg has correctly point out that my use of the phrase "mathematically impossible" was likely too strong so I'll give you this....he at least has a chance in hell because you never know what might happen between now and then but I would place those odds as extremely long.
     
  6. Jmg

    Jmg Veteran Member

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    For the record i would also like to accuse Obama of lying about his faith, along with trump and Hillary.
     
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  7. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Obama comes across more like an agnostic and/or humanist than a Christian, Muslim or any other organized religion. He may not be a Christian but he certainly isn't a Muslim either. If he is, then he violates everything near and dear to the Muslim religion.
     
  8. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    Update on our pending election:

    The first statistic that jumps out at me are Obama's approval ratings which have gone up significantly in the past several months to an all-time high for him, excluding the post-election fuzzies. This does not bode well for the Republicans as outgoing Presidential approval ratings have historically been a good indicator for how an election will steer. Over the past week here are a list of the polls and their positive or negative ratings.
    CNN +5
    Bloomberg +6
    Quinnipac +1
    Gallup +7
    Rasmussen +1
    Reuters -5
    Fox +2
    CBS +4
    Monmouth +3
    Obama's ratings have lingered in the -5 to -8 range for most of his Presidency.

    Next, Trump loves to cite a poll that has him leading. I've yet to see him make a speech when he doesn't refer to a poll. Well, I've got some polling numbers that I bet he will not be citing. Here are every GE poll taken over the month of March

    3/24 Monmouth Clinton +10
    3/23 Fox Clinton +11
    3/23 Quinnipac Clinton +6
    3/23 Bloomberg Clinton +18
    3/21 CNN Clinton +12 (a 3/1 poll by CNN showed Clinton +8)
    3/21 CBS Clinton +10
    3/9 NBC/WSJ Clinton +13
    3/2 Rasmussen Clinton +5

    Lastly, state polling. Trump has made a lot of claims that he is going to put NY in play because NY's love him, he is going to put the rust belt back in play for the Republicans and Florida too.....well, let's take a look at the polls to see if his logic is holding up.

    3/23 Wisconsin (Emerson) Clinton +9
    3/23 North Carolina (PPP) Clinton +2 (Romney won here in 2012)
    3/20 Utah (Deseret) Clinton +2
    3/18 New York (Emerson) Clinton +19
    3/16 Arizona (Merrill) Tied (Romney won here in 2012 also....comfortably)
    3/13 Florida (NBC/WSJ) Clinton +8
    3/13 Ohio (NBC/WSJ) Clinton +6
    3/13 Illinios (NBC/WSJ) Clinton +25
    3/10 Ohio (NBC/WSJ) Clinton +5
    3/9 Ohio (CNN) Clinton +7
    3/8 Florida (News 13) Trump +1
    3/7 New York (Siena) Clinton +23
    3/6 Michigan (NBC/WSJ) Clinton +16

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/pres_general/

    Here is the link supporting all of these numbers. I will be interested to see how Donald tries to spin polling when the General rolls around.
     
  9. Tiger in NC

    Tiger in NC There's a sucker born everyday...

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    see my post with all current polling.....Trump is recording turnout in Republican primaries but getting more white people will not be nearly enough to win an election. Not any more. This is going to be a historic landslide, along the lines of 1964 and Goldwater.
     
  10. MLUTiger

    MLUTiger Secular Humanist

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    This is true, but there is a tremendous amount of data that shows that primary turnout is unrelated to general election outcomes. While turnout for Democrats in the primaries is not breaking records, it's still very high. Come fall, the turnout will be driven by a polarizing Trump/Cruz. In swing states, this does not bode well for either. The win will overwhelmingly belong to a Democrat.

    This will be the case until the GOP has a message that resonates with the denser, higher electoral vote states.

    ...or until the GOP figures out a way to gerrymander the electoral college.
     
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