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Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Discussion in 'Free Speech Alley' started by Tiger in NC, Mar 18, 2016.

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islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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islstl said: ↑

Oh Quinnipiac in Pennsylvania, dead heat

Quinnipiac in Ohio, Trump up 4 over Hillary

If Trump takes Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania (and I'm betting on it) along with North Carolina, then Trump gets to 273, with room to spare as other states are in the balance as well
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Good bet

islstl, Nov 9, 2016

#1241
islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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islstl said: ↑

So it's well known that Trump's unfavorable with women are really high.

The latest poll shows it at 64 %. What everyone must remember is that Hillary isn't a whole lot better, coming in at 45 %.

I expect that 19 % gap to be reduced to single digits by the time of the election.
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She actually had a worse unfavorable rating than he did by election time, but again good call

islstl, Nov 9, 2016

#1242
islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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Bengal B said: ↑

Lots of Cubans in Florida and they tend to be on the conservative side. Could give The Donald the Sunshine State
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Great call and the split was something like 60/40 for trump vs Clinton

I think it all has to do with still being offended with how one of their precious cigars was used back in 1997

islstl, Nov 9, 2016

#1243

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islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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islstl said: ↑

Tiger in NC is ignoring the "we're going to put a lot of coal miners out of work" comment. The entire rust belt came into play on that statement alone. Coal mining isn't a big deal in every one of those states, but those are the same hard working blue collar people that were moved by that statement.

She is a terrible campaigner. She will lose.
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Here is one of my favorite posts in this thread.

The coal miners debacle by that stupid fucking wretched cunt.

islstl, Nov 9, 2016

#1244
shane0911 Helping lost idiots find their village

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I'm pretty sure we have seen the last of @Tiger in NC and @red55 I'm thinking a double shower hanging. Damnit I'll never get my whiskey now

shane0911, Nov 9, 2016

#1245

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LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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shane0911 said: ↑

I'm pretty sure we have seen the last of @Tiger in NC and @red55 I'm thinking a double shower hanging. Damnit I'll never get my whiskey now
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They need it more than you do at this point

LaSalleAve, Nov 9, 2016

#1246

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HalloweenRun Founding Member

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Actually, that was my first thought, that Red would come back to pay up. My very first thought.

HalloweenRun, Nov 9, 2016

#1247
shane0911 Helping lost idiots find their village

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LaSalleAve said: ↑

They need it more than you do at this point
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Yep, the residual from last night is strong

shane0911, Nov 9, 2016

#1248
islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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islstl said: ↑

Time to school this flaming liberal:

Here are the facts from the 2012 Presidential election by 5 key voting blocks:

Educated White
77 % voted, 56 % Republican

Non-Educated White
57 % voted, 62 % Republican

Black
66 % voted, 93 % Democrat

Latino
48 % voted, 71 % Democrat

Asian/Other
49 % voted, 67 % Democrat

Using the swing state calculator from fivethirtyeight.com website which recalulates each state based on the turnout and voting outcome from each of the 5 groups above, we see how very easy it will be to turn blue states red.

Using some common sense about what we've learned so far in these primaries, it's safe to say the Latino voter turnout will be higher. How much higher is unknown as Latino's typically turn out the least in general elections. So we'll be a bit conservative with the kind of bump the Dems could get from the Latino vote in 2016. Also, we know that the passion of the Black vote won't be as intense as it was for Barack Obama in 2012. So we'll temper the drastic results which will give a bump to Trump.

Asian/Other category is largely unknown so that group will be left in tact.

In the same vein, Trump has not moved the educated white towards his side in nearly the same fashion as he has the non-educated. So we'll leave the white educated exactly the same. The non-educated white is the key to the election for Trump. How many more can he get to turnout than did in 2012 and can he get a slightly higher percentage to vote Republican?

Educated White
77 % voted, 56 % Republican

Non-Educated White
61 % voted, 68 % Republican

Black
62 % voted, 90 % Democrat

Latino
58 % voted, 77 % Democrat

Asian/Other
49 % voted, 67 % Democrat

So simply upping the voter turnout of non-educated white from 57 to 61 percent and the Republican weighted vote from 62 % to 68 %, Trump wins the election 273-265 but lose the popular vote 49.4 to 48.9. I gave the Dems an even bigger bump with the Latino vote, going from 48 % to 58 % turnout and Dem weighted vote from 71 % to 77 %. And I very slightly tempered the black vote, giving Dems a whopping 90 % and 62 % turnout (down from 66 % for Obama).

But yeah I lack clarity, focus, facts, etc.
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I even gave a very specific roadmap to how he would win and even declared he would lose the popular vote in doing so.

islstl, Nov 9, 2016

#1249
islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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sunnyjim said: ↑

Yeah? Take a look at Real Clear Politics. Only the famously conservative Rasmussen poll picks Trump. Not even FoxNews.

FOX news = Clinton +5
Rasmussen = Trump +4
PPP = Clinton +4
Quinnipiac = Clinton +2
ABC News = Clinton +12
NBC news = Clinton +5
Reuters = Clinton +10
Economist = Clinton +4
CNN = Clinton +5

Wait until Bernie's supporters get on board.
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Them Bernie supporters gave a big fuck you to Hillary and stayed home in enough numbers to get trump elected.

islstl, Nov 9, 2016

#1250

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