Why It Is Mathematically Impossible for Trump to win the White House

Wow, double digits even. Exceeded expectations

 

Says it all.

 

State of the Race Update: 23 days until election day
Significant Events Remaining: 3rd debate, Wednesday, 10-19

States where Hillary Clinton leads by 20 points or more:
District of Columbia - 3, Hawaii - 4, Maryland - 10, Vermont - 3, California - 55, Massachusets - 11, New York - 29, Rhode Island - 4
Total Electoral Votes = 119

States where Donald Trump leads by 20 points or more:
Wyoming - 3, West Virginia - 5
Total Electoral Votes = 8

States where Hillary Clinton leads by 15-19 points:
Illinois - 20, Connecticut - 7, Delaware - 3
Total Electoral Votes between 15-19 points = 30
Total Electoral Votes = 149

States where Donald Trump leads by 15-19 points:
Alabama - 9, Idaho - 4, Oklahoma - 7, Arkansas - 6, Nebraska - 5, North Dakota - 3
Total Electoral Votes between 15-19 points = 34
Total Electoral Votes = 42

States where Hillary Clinton leads by 10-14 points:
Washington - 12, New Jersey - 14, Oregon - 7, New Mexico - 5, Maine - 4
Total Electoral Votes between 10-14 points = 42
Total Electoral Votes = 191

States where Donald Trump leads by 10-14 points:
Kentucky - 8, Louisiana - 8, Tennessee - 11, Utah - 6, Mississippi - 6, Montana - 3
Total Electoral Votes between 10-14 points = 42
Total Electoral Votes = 84

In states where one candidate or the other leads by 10 or more points, Clinton leads 191-84

States where Hillary Clinton leads by 7-9 points:
Michigan - 16, Virginia - 13, Minnesota - 10, Wisconsin - 10, New Hampshire - 4, Pennsylvania - 20, Colorado - 9
Total Electoral Votes between 7-9 points = 82
Total Electoral Votes = 273 *This would give Clinton the Presidency without any other states

States where Donald Trump leads by 7-9 points:
South Dakota - 3, Kansas - 6
Total Electoral Votes between 7-9 points = 9
Total Electoral Votes = 93

Here is where we get into the true "battleground" states for this election

States where Hillary Clinton leads by 4-6 points:
Nevada - 6, Florida - 29
Total Electoral Votes between 4-6 points = 35
Total Electoral Votes = 308

States where Donald Trump leads by 4-6 points:
Texas - 38, Indiana - 11, South Carolina - 9, Alaska - 3, Missouri - 10
Total Electoral Votes between 4-6 points = 71
Total Electoral Votes = 164

States where Hillary Clinton leads between 0-3 points:
North Carolina - 15, Ohio - 18, Iowa - 6, Arizona -11
Total Electoral Votes between 0-3 points = 50
Total Electoral Votes = 358

States where Donald Trump leads between 0-3 points:
Georgia - 16
Total Electoral Votes between 0-3 points = 16
Total Electoral Votes = 180

 

I don't question your numbers but here's my question NC. You postulated there was no way a Republican could win the presidency. Trump has been self destructive and is likely the best possible opponent for HRC. Yet it has taken (according to Wikileaks) unprecedented collusion between many of the mainstream media and the DNC and Trump's self destructive acts to have put the race away (and it may not yet be final).
Correct me if I'm wrong but I think you've said more than once if she faced Kasich or just about any other Republican she would likely lose. Doesn't that give lie to your original proposition?

 

I had no idea Texas was that close. Crazy.

 

Not at all. I didn't make the prediction about any other candidate than Trump. If it had been Kasich I would have never titled the thread as such. But since we are on the subject and you seem genuinely interested let me tell you what I did take into account when I started the thread: 1) Changing Demographics. This cannot be overstated and is a large reason why Arizona is leaning blue, New Mexico is no longer a "battleground" state, Texas will be a "battleground" state by 2024 or 2028 if not sooner, Georgia has become a genuine "battleground" and states like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida are moving from the purple to the blue column on a more regular basis. 2) Donald Trump is the most erratic and controversial candidate than we've had in 50 years or so and to a great degree his turkey was already cooked when the general started because of said demographic changes and his ability to piss off the very groups that a presidential candidate has to do well with these days. 3) There are far fewer true independents than ever before. Even among those who call themselves independents when mined for more detail about their political leanings, land firmly on one side or the other. Right now that number is about 45% Republican, 45% Democrat and 10% Undecided/Independent. With a candidate like Trump, who is likely to underperform that number by 5-7 points depending upon what level of unhinged Trump is on election day, it really isn't a stretch to say that it is mathematical impossible. 4) You will notice on my figures above that Clinton gets to 273 electoral votes with states in which she leads by 7 points or more on average. This has become known as the "blue wall." 5) I didn't know this when I made the prediction but there is someone else who shares my belief and this person is far more credible than me: David Plouffe, the mastermind behind both of Obama's victories and responsible for the data mining machine finds their voters and turn them out to the polls.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blog...inish-the-job-tonight/?utm_term=.bf8f1cf92ea8

 

I know and it has been trending toward her for some time. I doubt she wins it this go around but I think by 2024 or 2028 it will be considered a "battleground" state.

 

Trump STILL has a shot. Hard to believe but it's still within reach.

 

Lots of taco eaters in Texas

 

Lots of gun owners too.

Austin has a net influx of 100 people per day. That could be helping Hillary too.