regardless of sample size, the following are true: Jason Bay has produced RUNS (scored 3, knocked in 5) this postseason. Vladdy, not so much (as usual) (scored 2, knocked in 0) Jason Bay's team won the series Vladdy's team did not (as usual when your best guy doesn't produce any runs) It has taken Jason Bay 4 games to do what it has taken Vladdy 20 games to accomplish. I am not a big fan of Jason Bay The best players step it up when the season is on the line. There is a reason why Manny Ramirez had 1 fewer rbi LAST POSTSEASON ALONE than A-Rod has for a CAREER. Anfd it ain't just because of the guys hitting in front of Manny. It's because WHEN people are on in front of him, he brings them home, A-Rod doesn't. Are you serious?!!? Then why is it that every team in the Majors puts their best run producers in the 3-5 slots? Oh, that's right, because they get RBIs. P.S. 10 of his 15 at bats (not counting walks) this series came with runners on base, so his teammates ain't much of an excuse.
Take a great hitter on a good offense, and send him to a bad offensive team (like the Angels). His RBI may go down by 30 despite putting up similar numbers at the plate (the part that he controls). Did he have a worse year offensively? Of course, a list of the league leaders in RBI will include the very best hitters in baseball. But, just taking a look at two similar players and saying that the one with more RBI is better is not good analysis. I disagree with the notion that some players are capable of "stepping it up" in crunch time. If a player really could step it up at will, why wouldn't he play at such a high level all of the time? Right now Robert Horry is at home thinking, "Why couldn't I be lights-out all the time? I would have made way more money."
he had about the same regular season that he normally has. And managed not to produce in October, like he normally does. Are you serious? Some people thrive under pressure and perform better than they do under normal circumstances. Some people melt and under achieve. Is it just a coincidence that Robert Horry becomes the best shooter in basketball ONLY late in close playoff games? Do you really believe that? Is it just a coincidence that Jarett Lee turned in the performance of his life when he suddenly had no choice but to do so? Why is it that Mike Vanderjagkketet is the most accurate kicker (statistically) in NFL history, but never seemed to make that last second FG with the game on the line, but Vinatieri (less accurate statistically) never seems to miss those? Is it just dumb luck? It probably happens in your workplace as well. There's probably some guy that during normal day to day activity is good at what he does. But when the chips are on the line, somebody else just seems to do the job better.
so who is more valuable? it easier to convince yourself that bonds, arod and vlad will come around and lemke is a fluke.
Which guy is still playing? Convince your self that Dan Marino (8 seasons of 3900+ yards, 13 season 20+ TDs) will eventually come around better than Joe Montana (2 seasons 3900+ yards, 6 seasons 20+ TDs).
not quite a fair comparison. two of the best ever. i dont know the answer, but i do give tons of value to the players that mash all season even if they dont perform in the playoffs. players that come out of nowhere ever year to play lights out in the playoffs are considered to "come out of nowhere" because they didnt play like that during the season. without arod, bonds and vlad their teams wouldnt have made the playoffs.
Re Horry: Everything about this guy's career is coincidence and good fortune. A career bench player with 7.0 PPG plays in 7 NBA Finals and wins all of them. He has called the following men teammates: Hakeem, Clyde Drexler, Kobe, Shaq, Tim Duncan, David Robinson. I give the guy the utmost credit for making the most of his chances. I reject the notion that he has something in his makeup that allows him to be awesome only during pressure situations and mediocre the rest of the time. Re Jarrett Lee: I believe he is a good QB who followed up a horrific 1st half with a really good one. Again, I believe he played well because he is good, not because he thrives on the pressure or whatever. Many people point to John Elway's abundance of 4th Q comebacks as evidence of his mental toughness. I always want to ask: Why was his team losing so often? Did he have the most chances to bring his team back? Re Kickers: You may have me there. I think your brain can mess with you out there all alone. Michael Lewis wrote a really good article about this: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/28/sports/playmagazine/28lewis.html Finally, Derek Jeter. Mr. Clutch, cool-as-ice pressure performer. He has played 123 postseason games, nearly an entire seasons worth. Career averages: .316/.387/.458 Postseason: .309/.377/.469 He hasn't raised his level of play. He's done about what you would expect him to - play well.
Luckily he got Lucky and hit all them shots (not his teamates) at the end of games too. Luckily, all them teamates had a guy Lucky enough to hit a big shot on multiple occasions for them or else they might have fewer rings. Probably not a good example since he only has 1 1/2 games under his belt. We don't know what "normal" is for him just yet. Guess he was just unlucky during the 1st 3.5 quarters of those games. Luckily, he managed to win them, or else he wouldn't be in the hall of fame. He'd be Aaron Brooks. It's just like driving down a wet highway. Suddenly your car starts to hydroplane. Some people manage calmly regain control and avoid catastrophe. Some people panic, over correct, and hit the wall. Same thing happens in sports. Some people rush that last second jumper and it falls short, while some calmly just bank it in as if it were practice. Vladdy career avg's: .323/.389/.575 Better than Jeter across the board. Vladdy postseson avg's: .240/.329/.293 CONSIDERABLY lower than Jeter's across the board. Guess Jeter has been lucky to maintain his level of play an extra month every year. You are apparently a firmer believer in Luck than I am.
I'm not talking about guys that "come out of nowhere". I'm talking about good ball players who remain good/elevate a little when it counts the most. Compared to great ballplayers that for whatever reason don't perform greatly under the pressure of postseason play.
