What if china and Iran were together on this. An alliance between the two. With a NATO like agreement between the two Iran would have protection from the west. No western country would risk a war with china to bomb Iran
Iran is the number one supplier of oil to china. I could see china wanting to secure this supply when the oil starts to run out. There will be a time when easy oil will be all gone and prices will explode. All the industrilized nations will be scrambling for replacement supplies. This could be the trigger for a world war. China has no domestic oil so securing their supply would be needed.
Why on earth would China destroy its prosperity on an alliance with Iran? And even if they were that dumb what could they do if a western nation bombed Iran? China has everything to lose and nothing to gain in your scenario. China will continue to posture for more prestige and sell cheap crap to America.
US military warns oil output may dip causing massive shortages by ... Apr 11, 2010*… My solution is for China, which has both the economic and industrial .... If you think there is plenty of oil out there,*… Are they warning the world about the next war based on oil? .... things to come because the markets runs on expectations.*… Latest financial, market & economic news and analysis | Business | guardian.co.uk... - Options When will the Oil Run Out? Feb 15, 2008*… China's petroleum demand will eclipse the U.S.' as early as 2015. .... When the oil runs out, the world will both blame the US,*… The fact of the matter is that yes a war will come that will*… When will the Oil Run Out?... - Options This is what i'm getting at. When the oil runs out will there be war to control the last of the supply. My thoughts are that china will mobilize because of the civil unrest.
I had seen a show either on discovery or the military channel about how the pentagon is drawing up scenarios about what could happen when the oil starts to run out. I then googled it. There are several articles about this topic. Sure it's speculation. What many have said is that there could be a push by china to the middle east. Another is an allience between Iran and china where china is the sole importer of Iranian oil. The articles say that countries will be desprate to provide it's restless population the fuel it needs and this will lead to war. The tv show caught my attention when I first watched it a few months ago. Several articles can be found about this subject. I was repeating things I had read to see what others thought about it.
I wouldn't bet the farm on it. Israel has few qualms and the Russians are unlikely to allow the 'stans to be taken. Without a pipeline through Central Asia or unfettered sea lanes, China cannot move oil from Iran.
had to wade through all that stuff to get to your answer. so if they did take the stans the west would not take iran but would help. interesting option. the whole premise was that oil becomes scarce. countries that can do something will do something. this wont happen overnight but countries will take the low hanging fruit, and for china that seems to be the stans. the us is sitting pretty with iraq and SArabia. but i think it would be interesting to see what would the west's reaction be to chinas action.
Let China take the 'stans and threaten Iran and see how quickly China becomes the Great Satan and all grudges with the US are forgotten. The West is unlikely to invade and occupy Iran for its oil, we're more likely to cut a deal to help protect them from big enemies that are closer in return for trade. Don't forget Russia, they are the 900 pound gorilla of the Steppes. They don't want China too close to their own oil fields and they are still possessive of the former soviet republics, most of whose pipelines pass thorough Russia.
