I look at the schedule and see 10-2...Auburn will go 9-3 but win the west because the home team wins LSU / Auburn by half of a point without fail and Auburn will lose a close one with WVU so that won't count against them in the SEC race. I'm predicting Auburn will lose to Georgia in the SEC Championship game and GA will go on to Miami, leaving a spot in the Sugar for good ole LSU to beat either WVU or Va Tech. My .02
Nope. They will change the prediction and often do if that's what it takes to generate more betting. They make money on the vigorish, the amount charged by the book for his services. It doesn't matter to them who wins the game as long as the betting is balanced. The more bets that are placed, the more vigorish they earn.
You're correct. But it is in their best interest to get it right the first time if possible, right? If that's the case, then they are trying to be as accurate with their initial posting as possible so they don't have to have large payouts for early bettors. This explains the part that I was missing. So if I wanted to place a $100 bet, I'd have to put up not only my $100, but also a fee for the "transaction", which is the vigorish. Do I have that right now?
After winning their NC in 2006, Florida was on the losing end of their entire "trifecta" during 2007 -- losing home games to Auburn and Georgia, and losing on the road at LSU. It's well with the realm of possibility that Auburn (away), Georgia (home), and Florida (away) will all be favored to beat LSU next season... and that to beat any one of them would be an upset. Since 1998, we've never beat Auburn at Auburn. As for Georgia and Florida, a lot of people think that the squads they have this year are just straight-up better than the squad LSU has this year. It's well within the realm of possibility that LSU losses to Auburn, Georgia, and Florida next year It's also well within the realm of possibility that LSU manages to pull of the upset in one of those three game but loses another game to someone else. We play Appy State (who upset Michigan last year), Miss State (who upset Auburn last year), South Carolina (who upset Georgia last year), Alabama (who upset Tennessee last year), Arkansas (who has either beaten LSU or only lost by less than 5 points to LSU during 6 of the last 8 times we played them), and Ole Miss (who thinks we are their bitter archrival and usually plays us pretty close). The goal of the LSU coaches and players is go 12-0 next season. That's the goal every season. I think LSU going to put up a hell of a fight next year to achieve that goal, but when the dust settles, I think 9-3 is realistic.
Look at those win totals by Vegas for all those football teams. Which of those do you think is not a realistic expectation? Which would you recommend betting the over on? Which would you recommend betting the under on? Parso and Berge like the over on Syracuse at 2.5 wins. Syracuse finished 2-10 last year, 4-8 the year before that, and 1-10 the year before that. Syracuse's OOC schedule in 2008 includes Penn State, Notre Dame, and Northwestern. Parso like the under on Florida State at 8.5 wins. That is an interesting one. FSU finished the regular season 7-5 last year, 6-6 the year before that, and 8-4 the year before that. And they had that whole thing will the players getting getting in trouble at the end of last season. But, FSU has stayed strong in recruiting. Regardless, the 8.5 wins for FSU is an interesting one to consider betting the under on. Parso like the over on Ole Miss at 5.5 wins. Ole Miss finished 3-9 last year, 4-8 before that, 3-8 the year before that, and 4-7 before that. Ole Miss' OOC schedule in 2008 includes an away game at the ACC's Wake Forest (who was 9-4 last year and 11-3 the year before that). Parso likes the under on Michigan at 8 wins. Michigan finished the regular season 8-4 last year, 11-1 the year before, 7-4 the year before, 9-2 the year before, 10-2 the year before, 9-3 the year before, 8-3 the year before, 8-3 the year before, 10-1 the year before, 9-3 the year before, 11-0 the year before, 8-3 the year before, and 9-3 the year before. Parso likes the under on ND at 7 wins. ND finished the regular season 3-9 last year, 10-2 the year before, 9-2 the year before. They've done outstanding in recruiting. It's a tough call. As Nootch pointed out, he can see ND going 8-4 based on their schedule next year. Shane and Berge like the under on Texas at 9 wins. Texas finished the regular season 9-3 last year, 9-3 the year before that, 12-0 before that, 10-1 before that, 10-1 before that, 10-2 before that, and 10-2 before that. Charlie likes the under with ND at 9 wins. But Vegas doesn't have ND at 9 wins, they have them at 7. Berge likes the over on Cincy at 7 wins. Cincy finished the regular season at 9-3 last year, and 7-5 the year before that. A lot of people think the Cincy coach, Brian Kelly, is one of the greatest in college football. Berge might be onto something here, except that Cincy's OOC schedule for 2008 includes Oklahoma and Hawaii. Berge likes the under on Missouri at 9.5 wins. Missouri finished the regular season 11-2 last year and 8-4 the year before. Missouri is returning pretty much everybody from the same team they had last year, and they are a legit contender for at least the Big 12 Championship, if not that National Title. Berge likes the over on Texas A&M at 7 wins. A&M finished the reg season 7-5 last year, 9-3 the year before that, 5-6 the year before that, 7-5 the year before that, 4-7 before that, and 6-6 before that. Still, Berge might be onto something here--even if A&M losses to Miami, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas Tech next year, they still might be able to get 8 wins against Ark State, New Mexico, Army, Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Iowa State, Colorado, and Baylor. I do think A&M's new coach Mike Sherman was a nice pick up by the Aggies. Berge likes the over on Tennessee at 8.5 wins. Tennessee finished the reg season 10-3 last year, and 9-3 the year before. Tenn should be able to get 6 wins against UAB, N. Ill, Miss State, Wyoming, Vandy, Kentucky. To get the over on 8.5, Tenn would have to win three of the following six games: at UCLA, at Auburn, at Georgia, at South Carolina, home games against Florida and Alabama. It's very possible. Berge likes the over on Baylor at 3 wins. Baylor finish the reg season 3-9 last year, 4-8 before that, 5-6 before that, 3-8 before that, 3-9 before that, 3-9 before that, 3-8 before that, 2-9 before that, 1-10 before that, 2-9 before that, and 2-9 before that. Baylor's OOC schedule for 2008 includes the ACC's Wake Forest, the Pac 10's Washington State, and the Big East's Connecticut.
not true. if they think Notre Dame is going to win 1 game, they will not set the total at 1. they know the money will be so lopsided on the over they will set it higher by say 2 more games. its risk aversion, nothing more and a fundamental difference. the syracuse 2.5 stands out as one of these. its so low you can assume they think its going under. the LSU/Ohio State game certainly smelled with the line opening at 10. clearly the betting public would favor taking the points with OSU. LSU rolls and vegas smiles. the sharpies who bet before vegas released it to the public likely bet it a good bit above 10 but it was plenty high enough to generate action from john q public. money lines arent interchangeable for favorites and underdogs. there is a huge vig difference. if the money line was Patriots -400 you lay 400 to win 100. if you take the giants, you'd lay 100 and win around 320 or something. an 80 pt difference. often times more. its 11/10 odds but no. the pointspread is there for a reason. so each side can wager at the same price. although moneylines let you get better than even money if you choose the underdog to win outright. Like say, if you chose the giants to upset the patriots as shane mentioned above. that would have netted a nice return. But there are no spreads involved. in such a case with total wins, it takes a lot to move the line unlike spreads. But what they will do is make the cost of whatever the popular bet is much higher. if they get thousands on LSU over 9 they will release: LSU over 9 -140 then if that doesnt work maybe move to 9' if still getting pounded. LSU under 9 +110 or something similar. notice the 30 pt juice. yes you pay the vig upfront. say we both lay 110 to win 100. the house books 220 (you and the losing bet) but pays you only 210. You could almost say vegas really makes money by screwing the winner with bad payouts. Or by charging you a tax on your winnings. the house edge on 11/10 wagers, which are standard, is 4.55% (10 dollars kept of 220). sports books are likely about 1% of a casino's revenues and most struggle to stay profitable. those slot machines pay for just about everything nowadays and have for quite some time. the books bring in tourists with wives who feed the slots so they can justify it. for the record, 9 is the number I think the LSU total lands. right on 9.
Wow, Interesting responses in this thread. I voted 9-3 for various reasons. Inexperience at key positions and everyone we play will be playing us like we are #1, it will be like last years games without some of those key players that helped us over the top. We have targets on our backs, everyone will bring their A game. I guess the key will be how the first year players respond under pressure, everything IMO revolves around the QB position. I'm not saying we can't be better than 9-3 but I'll be surprised and take that anyday. Some say they won't except being 9-3 as being successful anymore, what a difference in the last 5 years at LSU versus the last 20 years. I don't see how 9-3 isn't being successful in the SEC or any conference. The difference in 9-3 and going 12-0, I don't think is that great. There are one or two plays a game or the ball bounces the wrong way, that can be the only difference.
I went 11-1, for one reason, DEFENSE. I realize you lost Dorsey, RJF, etc., but agressive playcalling on defense and players who can get to the quarterback keep you in every game. Crowton is a brilliant offensive mind who will figure out ways to get the ball into the hands of your playmakers. I'm not sold on Georgia mentally, and Florida's secondary is still entirely too big of a question mark for me to rank them ahead of LSU. I don't think another SEC title is out of the question at all.
