and before you ask, if it was at 10 I think most people would just leave it alone because it would be too tough to call.
Two things. First, I know Vegas wants money on both sides as evenly as possible. My argument is that people who try to argue the semantics that Vegas doesn't think that LSU will go 9-3 is only a technicality. Vegas may not be making an actual prediction, but they wouldn't say 9.0 for LSU unless they were SURE that's the way the gambling public thinks LSU will finish. Second, I have a question. I understand that they wouldn't want too many people placing bets on one side of a line, but I don't understand where Vegas makes their money. If they put a line that has $10,000 bet on one side, $10,000 on the other, where do they make their money? If one side wins, they pay out $10,000 to the winning side, collect $10,000 from the losing side. Do they not pay out at 2:1? I admit to be a bit naive to the business side of Vegas.
My understanding is this: Vegas comes up with their numbers using a lot of criteria. The basic line is based on how the odds makers think the team will do, then it is adjusted based on expectations of where the public will put their money (usually no more than a win or 2 difference) & the line is announced. Once people start putting money down the line is adjusted to accurately reflect a balanced line. Certain teams, like ND, have a lot of money put on them regardless of the line so it is inflated to balance out the money. Also, odds-makers do occassionally try make money off of lines by making their own gambles by making the money un-even in favor (for them) of the outcome they expect but the public doesn't.
thats just it, the key is to try and get it split as even as possible, it rarely ends up that way. Many of these tout services that want to charge you for the winning side of a bet operate by having someone on the inside that will tell them where most of the money is on a certian game. They in turn release the opposite side because the betting public is notorious for being wrong. That is how they make their money. Its sort of an ebb and flow and of course releasing bad lines that sucker people in. They may break even on a 10 games, take a bath on 2, and make a killing on whats left. You have to understand how many things there are to bet on. Parlays, futures, props, all SUCKER bets but the payouts are so good that people continue to bet them and continue to lose. They aren't building those giant hotel/casions because they are shelling out mad cash every tuesday.
Thanks for that explanation. That helps explain how they get to the even betting, but where do they make money if they get an even split of bets? I'm working on the assumption that if I bet $10 on LSU to go over 9.0 wins and they do, I'll get my $10 back, plus $10 in winnings. Is that how it works, or am I missing something?
Exactly, and after I look at the schedules I'm sure I'll find a few of them. They are known as a "trap". Often the cappos in vegas will have information that the betting public or even clair won't know. They use this to come up with a number that the bp will look at and go "geez, taking candy from a baby" and then lose their house.
That depends on the odds. If its 3:1 and you bet 10 bucks and hit it, you will get 40 back. Your 10 plust the 30 for 3:1. They make money from the people that lose, or from a lopsided line where everyone is on the wrong side.
Gotcha. As a follow up, are all the odds on the lines from the top of the thread paid 1:1? Would seem strange to me for them to pay out any differently than 1:1 this early. I'd always assumed that all odds on betting on the score line for a game was always paid 1:1. I thought uneven odds were for event type bets, like a team winning the national championship or the Super Bowl.
no, they won't be 1:1. That is another way for them to make money. They have to make the wager seem attractive so depending on the strength of the line, that is how they will determine the odds of you winning the bet. For instance, this past super bowl the giants were basically 4:1 on the money line. That is a stright bet with no points either way. Bet 100 on the giants to win and you get 400 back. On the other hand with the Pats being so heavily favored you would have had to bet 400 on them to win 100. Understand? and I'm going to assume that A LOT of people bet on NE, therefore the money they had to pay to whoever bet NY was made up in spades by the people who bet the losing side.
Understood, but we're talking about two different things. I'm talking strictly about the point spread. Since the spread itself is shifted for balance, do they ever offer something different from 1:1 odds for betting on one side or the other of the point spread? The wins for the season prediction is similar to a point spread in that it can be shifted up or down to balance the bets, so would there be a situation where I would be given better than 1:1 odds to bet either over or under 9.0 for LSU?
