There has been a lot of talk on this board and others projecting a number of recruits that will be upgraded from 3 to 4 stars. My question is, what percentage of the time does this actually happen, 10%, 20%, etc. Please keep in mind that we are in late July when you answer. I can't help but think that people are a bit overzealous in predicting so many of our 3 star recruits will turn into 4 star recruits by signing day. Please feel free to name names, including our current verbals. It may be interesting to see how the predictions pan out.
I'd venture that... maybe 25% of 3 star recruits jump up to 4 star and vice-versa. I've paid attention & Miles has a very, very good track record with early commits changing from 3 to 4 stars and not vice versa. Hagans, P.J., Parsons, Peterson, St. Julien, and Theriot all have a good chance at jumping to 4 star recruits. Hagans should be much improved as last year was only his first in football. P.J. & Parsons are both very good linemen, just a bit unknown right now. Rivals needs more film on them. Peterson may be the most likely to jump to 4 star, just because he managed to get some publicity by impressing at Florida's camp & waivering on his commitment. St. Julien is supposed to just be a hell of a DB. Theriot's film is quite impressive, but his competition is weak which may hold him back from moving to 4 stars.
It happens pretty frequently. More frequently than you'd probably think. You have to realize that Rivals and Scout put out their rankings without really knowing all that much about these kids. It's really imperfect, at least early. As senior films come out, and as recruiting heats up and they see who's recruiting these guys, the rankings will be revised several times. Last year, Demetrius Byrd and Josh Dworaczyk jumped to 4 stars that I can remember. One of the kickers jumped from 2 stars to 3 stars. That kid Florida recruited as a QB jumped from 3 stars all the way to FIVE STARS. As for this year's crop, expect Peterson to jump. This Prater kid will jump. Lonergan will jump from his 5.5 rating, but I'm not sure it'll be all the way to the 5.8 needed to make 4-star, but he'll jump at least a little.
It is absolutely always imperfect, but it is much more imperfect early on. 3 stars is kind of just the default. If it looks like a kid will be recruited by some good schools, they will get 3 stars. 4 star recruits are guys that made a name for themselves early in their career. And 5 stars are guys that just have a lot of hype. As the process goes on, the stars are more likely to represent how the recruits perform in camps and how much attention they get from top colleges. Early commits are penalized to some degree by this. Tis very rare, and had he commited to another school he probably would've only been a 4 star.
I appreciate the answers. I had heard the same thing about early commits not getting there due from the services and I believe it. If a kid stops taking trips or going to camps, he doesn't create as much attention and it makes sense that the services may overlook them. It is always a good idea to follow the money, and the hype generated for uncommitted players is the bread and butter of the services.
Rivals has already identified 2 of our commits as having their stock rise, Baker & Peterson. http://rivals100.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=695803 These 2 guys will probably jump to 4 stars in the next ranking.
Scout had Demetrius Byrd as a 5*, and Rivals had him as a 3*...then I THINK they moved him to 4* after he committed to :lsup: .
