Trying to understand the Las Vegas odds.

It looks like it opened up with us getting 6 points; then went down to 4 points, now back up to 5.0 or 5.5 points.

Are these fluctations caused by people's betting or are these odds manually being shifted by the experts based on real life factors that take place during the week; (like injuries reports, etc...).



http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/odds/las-vegas/

 

money. initial so-called smart money on LSU then public bet UF.

 

I'm still kind of confused. What causes a shift from 6 point favorite down to 5 point favorite in the middle of the week. To many people betting on LSU maybe???

 

essentially the spread moves based on the betting. Vegas doesn't care who wins, they just want to get the betting even on both sides so they can make money. So the line moves to get people to bet on both sides of it.

 

Nice, I kind of thought that was it, but didn't know. So apparently everyone is picking LSU right now.

 

ANSWER: Money, money, money.

 

look at it like a stock price. initially they had UF -6 but since lots of money came in on LSU, Florida's price went down to -4. supply/demand.

then it went back up -5 and -6 meaning money later came in on UF. so the price for Florida went up and LSU became a discount.

 

I agree with Tirk's description on the money flows. But you cannot read into it that people believe LSU will win. Clearly we are not the favorite in Vegas' eyes. And if 'everyone' thought the Tigers would win, the spread would keep going down.

 

correct. LSU in the swamp with a green QB where UF hasnt allowed more than 7 points in so many games. or whatever it said on the espn crawler.

if LSU wins it will be an upset.


and dont forget tebow's tearful monologue vowing to the world how hard they are going to play.