Assuming the two teams would split, here are the tie breakers that probably decide it. Let's go with the easiest scenario. Saints lose to Seattle, Carolina wins out. Split the two games they play each other. Both teams finish 12-4. Saints win tie breaker based on conference record. Division record and common games W-L would be identical (5-1 division, Saints 2-2 AFC, Carolina 3-1 AFC, Saints 3-1 NFC West, Carolina 2-2 NFC West, both 2-0 against non-common opponents). It gets murky if Carolina loses to either Miami on the road this week or against the Jets at home late in the season. So let's say they lose to Miami this weekend (more likely than losing to the Jets at home). The Saints would have to lose to someone other than just Seattle. 1) If it's Atlanta or Tampa, Saints lose tie breaker due to worse division record 2) If it's St. Louis, common opponents record is equal Now it goes down to Strength of Victory: Saints opponents currently have 36 wins. Carolina's opponents have 27 wins. Saints would only get 4 more wins as it currently stands (Atlanta, Tampa), bumping us up to 40 wins. Carolina would get 9 more wins (Jets, Atlanta, Tampa), bumping up to 36 wins. Saints appear to be ok with this tie breaker, but if that gets tied somehow: Strength of Schedule: Saints and Panthers have 14 opponents in common, so we just look at the 2 non-common opponent's W-L record: Saints = Cowboys, Bears (11-9) Panthers = Giants, Vikings (6-14) Big advantage to the Saints. Cowboys beating the Giants this week essentially puts that in the Saints column. Bottom line, it appears the only way the Saints lose in a tie breaker situation with Carolina is to get swept twice by the Panthers or to lose another division game (Atlanta, Tampa).
