Don't look for Tiger to hit the same number of fairways he hit at Jack's place. The USGA sets up the course to make the fairways much more narrow than a Tour event. If he can reduce his misses to the first cut then everyone else is playing for 2nd place. Geoff Ogilvy is my dark horse. He's one guy that isn't afraid of Tiger. Furyk being another. Although DT's on a hell of a hot streak I think Bethpage is just too damn long for him.
Ogilvy is my pick too, second to Tiger. GO won this event a few years ago, granted Lefty and Colon handed it to him. But GO has really played some great golf the last couple years.
Rain eliminates roughly 85% of the field. Only the top guns will have the muscles enough to play this course when it's soft.