The Official LSU Vs TCU Thread

CajunKid and I are flying out in the morning. Can't wait for the game. GEAUX TIGERS

 

pic taken on the streets in Fort Worth:

 

Texas Football magazine on the game:

Find a better storyline for Casey Pachall's return to the field than what awaits him and TCU on Saturday. Beating SEC power LSU on the opening weekend of the season in the grandeur of Cowboys Stadium (err… AT&T Stadium that is) would certainly qualify as a triumphant reentry into college football.

Except Gary Patterson could probably think of a few other ways to ease his once-suspended quarterback into the game. Perhaps play that other Louisiana team on his schedule -- those Lions of Southeastern Louisiana -- in Week 1 and move LSU back to Week 2.

But that's not happening, and so Patterson and his Frogs find themselves in one of the marquee games in the nation. And while it's undoubtedly the top game in state, you'll find my breakdown at the bottom of this preview. That's because each week, I'll preview all the games involving Texas FBS teams, ranking the previews in order of my confidence in my prediction.
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My confidence level (in my prediction): Low

>No. 12 LSU vs No. 20 TCU (in Dallas), 8 p.m. Saturday, ESPN
>Why my confidence is low: The Big 12 really wants to be heard. SEC has laid claim as the best conference in America (something you'll hear every hour of every day on ESPN), and with its run of success in the BCS title game, it's hard to argue. But top to bottom, is the Big 12 on par with the SEC? That's what Big 12 backers will say, and TCU will be the voice of that argument in one of the biggest games of the opening weekend. Some publications have picked TCU to win the Big 12; LSU is always a contender in the SEC, even if Alabama and Texas A&M are the safer picks right now. But both programs, if you were to find a consensus, are picked to finish in the 2-4 range in their respective conferences. This game could be a pretty good measurement of the depth argument between the conferences. What I'm looking for most -- how will TCU move the ball against a reloaded LSU defense, and if, conversely, LSU will be able to run the ball against a TCU defense that's always one of the best at stopping it. If either team wins both of these matchups, this game might not be close. If these two matchups get split, this game might not be decided until the final minute. That's what I'm expecting. I think LSU holds on for a win, but even with a victory, the depth debate between these two conferences might be strengthened for one side or the other, but not settled. Not if the teams play as close a game as I'm expecting. It will take a very convincing win by either team to put that debate to bed.
Key stat: 9, the number of players LSU lost in the 2013 NFL draft, including six in the first two rounds. Another seven ex-Tigers eventually signed NFL free agent contracts. TCU only lost six total starters from its 2012 team, although two more players left during the offseason (MLB Joel Hasley and RT Tayo Fabuluje). TCU may also be without star DE Devonte Fields, who was originally suspended for the game, but rumors have surfaced that he might play.
>The mob says: LSU by 4
>So says I: LSU 19, TCU 17

 

a look at the TCU defense, which returns 9 starters from last year:

Total Defense
2012 -- #16 in NCAA
2011 -- #32 in NCAA
2010 -- #1 in NCAA
2009 -- #1 in NCAA
2008 -- #1 in NCAA
2007 -- #15 in NCAA

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Carry
2012 -- #12 in NCAA (3.25 YPC)
2011 -- #27 in NCAA (3.52 YPC)
2010 -- #10 in NCAA (3.31 YPC)
2009 -- #2 in NCAA (2.59 YPC)
2008 -- #1 in NCAA (1.72 YPC)
2007 -- #8 in NCAA (2.92 YPC)

Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game
2012 -- #10 in NCAA
2011 -- #25 in NCAA
2010 -- #5 in NCAA
2009 -- #3 in NCAA
2008 -- #1 in NCAA
2007 -- #11 in NCAA

Pass Efficiency D
2012 --#26 in NCAA
2011 -- #65 in NCAA
2010 -- #1 in NCAA
2009 -- #4 in NCAA
2008 -- #4 in NCAA
2007 -- #11 in NCAA

Opposing QB Completion Pct
2012 -- #9 in NCAA (53.2%)
2011 -- #36 in NCAA (57.2%)
2010 -- #1 in NCAA (48.6%)
2009 -- #2 in NCAA (47.4%)
2008 -- #1 in NCAA (50.3%)
2007 -- #16 in NCAA (53.9%)

First Downs Allowed Per Game
2012 -- #8 in NCAA (17.0)
2011 -- #28 in NCAA (17.8)
2010 -- #1 in NCAA (12.0)
2009 -- #1 in NCAA (12.4)
2008 -- #1 in NCAA (12.1)
2007 -- #14 in NCAA (17.5)

Opponent 3rd Down Conversions
2012 -- #7 in NCAA (29.95%)
2011 -- #44 in NCAA (37.50%)
2010 -- #1 in NCAA (24.10%)
2009 -- #2 in NCAA (26.80%)
2008 -- #5 in NCAA (28.74%)
2007 -- #10 in NCAA (32.09%)

Opponent Red Zone Conversions -- % of Touch Downs Allowed
2012 -- #12 in NCAA (47.37%)
2011 -- #15 in NCAA (48.39%)
2010 -- #74 in NCAA (63.16%)
2009 -- #28 in NCAA (50.00%)
2008 --#5 in NCAA (45.45%)
2007 --#1 in NCAA (39.47%)

Plays of Plus-Ten Yards Allowed
2012 -- #15 in NCAA
2011 -- #6 in NCAA
2010 -- #1 in NCAA
2009 -- n/a
2008 -- n/a
2007 -- n/a

Kickoff return D
2012 -- #16 in NCAA (18.66)
2011 -- #50 in NCAA (20.99)
2010 -- #28 in NCAA (20.33)
2009 -- #21 in NCAA (19.73)
2008 -- #25 in NCAA (19.11)
2007 -- #4 in NCAA (17.32)

 

ESPN: "Just because the Horned Frogs come from the defensively challenged Big 12 doesn't mean coach Gary Patterson's squad can't play ball. TCU has long been SEC-like on defense"

led by All-American CB Jason Verrett (who is projected by everybody as a 1st Round pick in upcoming draft and was recently rated the #1 player in the Big 12 by ESPN's David Ubben, and the #1 defensive player in the Big 12 by Pat Forde of Yahoo!)...

...the 2012 TCU D was:
--#4 in the NCAA in interceptions (21)
--#4 in the NCAA in interceptions per game (1.62)
--#3 in the NCAA in passes defended (84)
--#3 in the NCAA in passed defended per game (6.62)
--#6 in the NCAA in passes broken up (65)

in 2012, Verrett was:
--#1 in the NCAA in passes defended (22)
--#5 in the NCAA in INTs (6)
--#7 in the NCAA in passes broken up (16)

Fox Sports: "The (TCU) secondary might be the best in the Big 12 - or as good as the Big 12 is able to offer...everyone tries to pound on Gary Patterson's teams, but it doesn't work. If the Horned Frogs can somehow get up early with the midrange passing game, the pressure will be on Mettenberger to throw. Against Jason Verrett and this secondary, that should work in TCU's favor."



Verrett

 

Sports Illustrated:

"Regardless of the outcome, both TCU and LSU are being overlooked by far too many people. The Horned Frogs and Tigers have great coaches, offenses with upside and defenses with plenty of talent. If anything, it’s unfortunate this matchup is being played so early in the season, before both teams really get rolling. This game is a coin flip. I’m thinking it could come down to the kickers."

 

Sports Illustrated:

Scheming for one talented quarterback is challenging enough for an opposing coach. But scheming for that quarterback and a second one who will be used in a variety of packages? That seems downright unfair.
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TCU has named two QBs as co-captains against LSU. Casey Pachall was arrested for DWI in October 2012 and ended up in rehab. (He had publicly admitted to failing a drug test in February of the same year and to using marijuana, cocaine and ecstasy.) Trevone Boykin slid into the starting role, a position he wasn’t quite ready for, even if he handled the offense fairly well. ... all signs point to Pachall being the starter. Still, that doesn’t mean Boykin will simply be cast aside and left to waste a year of eligibility. The redshirt sophomore is a dangerous dual-threat player. Not only did he pass for 2,054 yards last fall, but also he was the Horned Frogs’ second-leading rusher, picking up 582 yards and averaging 5.7 per carry. College football isn’t like professional sports, where teams cans simply make a trade from positions of depth. Coaches have to get the most out of their best players in as many creative ways as possible.

“There will be a starter and there will be a ‘sixth man’ like you talk about it in basketball,” Patterson said. “The one thing about it, you know a lot of people’s sixth man — there’s a most valuable player award for the sixth man in the NBA — the guy who comes in and does the thing he needs to do, and I see that other guy being that guy. He’s really considered a starter, but you can only put five on the court. In this case, you can only put 11 on the football field.”


Casey Pachall #4 -- Trevone Boykin #2

 

In Fort Worth..........GEAUX TIGERS..........

 

Holly Rowe is reporting the LSU walk-through had the team sit in the stands and watch a highlight video on the giant-mega-screen with the final message: "dominate your man"

 

Touching the traveling WIN! Bar as the guys enter the stadium locker room.