Obama The Iran Deal We Should Have Done

Ain't it great? All of our enemies in Syria have been killing each other for two years and we have been allowing it to happen for obvious reasons. We simply don't have a side in this 100-way Syrian Civil War. Now our old adversaries the Russians have thrown themselves into a bitter civil war learning nothing from our experience in Vietnam or their own in Afghanistan. Russia is the one entering an untenable situation. We have handled this one very sweetly. We are arming anybody who is fighting ISIS. It's all pretty common infantry weapons, no AAA, and it is no big deal if ISIS captures some.

Our only obligations are to Iraq and the Kurds. We will stand by them until they get their territory back from ISIS, then ISIS, Syrian government, the Russians, Al Nustra, and all 100 factions of the Syrian rebellion can get back to merrily killing each other in Syria. May the quagmire be with them.

Not a surprise. Russia and Iran share one national interest. Their only foreign ally is Assad and they are both now desperate that he survive a while longer. It is clear to everyone that Assad's days are numbered and they are desperately trying to be able to influence who the next strongman will be. Since all of the factions are anti-American, we don't really care as long as it ain't ISIS, and it won't be. ISIS is a far bigger threat to Iran and Russian than to us.

Let Russia and Iran bleed money and lives in Syria. They will be mired there for a decade or more like we are in Afghanistan and Iraq and take on the role of ISIS enemy number one. And they will still be fighting a guerrilla war against the Syrian rebels. This may be great fun to watch. The Iranians are amazingly inept soldiers. They lost a million men fighting Iraq. Citizens in Iran and Russia will not like casualties coming home any better than we did. And neither of these countries have very deep pockets, they don't have the staying power that we have.

Do not mistake arrangements to prevent conflicts in crowded airspace for some kind of coalition that the Russians are creating. Israel has already fired on Syrian aircraft overflying Israel and Turkey is promising to shoot down any further Russian planes or drones that overfly them. All parties are just trying to avoid a shootdown.

Turkey is a long-time NATO ally and a member of the anti-ISIS coalition. Israel is independent as usual, but also a very close US ally. They are long-standing allies of the US and that will not change.

Russias geopolitical situation is fairly simple. If Assad falls, they lose the only base they have outside the former Soviet Union, as tiny and miserable as it is. They have the local Syrian Shiites to fight on the ground. Our situation is more complex, but it is clear that we gain or lose nothing whatever happens in Syria. We have no allies there. We only care that ISIS no longer threatens the Kurds or Iraqis, where we have local troops on the ground.

 

Breaking News . . . Turkey shot down a Russian drone over Turkey today. Russia denies it but Turkey has the wreckage and it is already on TV. This is not only a violation of Turkish airspace but NATO airspace.



Pentagon experts are saying that the Coalition aircraft and drones are under control from a AWACS plane that is seeing everything on its radar and coordinating efforts. The Russians are apparently just winging it and flying all over not always knowing exactly where they are or anybody else is.

The US is not agreeing to cooperate with Russia in any way with their Syrian misadventures. But we are trying to get them into a technical agreement concerning flight parameters.

There are a lot of warplanes flying in a limited area and Israel and Turkey have hair triggers on their SAMs. Sooner or later there is going to be an incident. Probably sooner.

 

You mean the ones that are dismantling their nuclear weapons program.

 

Is that like the secret playbook? The imaginary program?

 

How are they going to move all of the radioactive isotopes that will be left behind in any facility where such work is going on? We find them and they are busted.