Surprising Statistical Comparison of Jefferson and Flynn

Saw a discussion elsewhere about their similar numbers, and decided to dig deeper into the numbers. Found the stats at cfbstats.com (a great site), only looked at 2007 for Flynn and 2009 for JJ.

Much to my shock, it was hard to find areas that Matt Flynn did better than JJ, despite MF having a far superior offensive line and running game. Even looked at how often the QB ran (instead of passing) on passing third down situations, as my perception is that JJ ate the ball (killing a drive) far too often. Numbers might suprise you.

First, the passing stats:

1st down completion percentage/TD/INT/avg yards per attempt:
MF 58.0/7/4/7.01
JJ 64.1/8/4/7.25

2nd down completion percentage/TD/INT/avg yards per attempt:
MF/53.4/6/5/6.39
JJ/61.8/5/1/7.15

3rd down completion percentage/TD/INT/avg yards per attempt:
MF/55.9/5/2/6.47
JJ/56.5/4/2/7.17

3rd down, 10+ to go completions percentage/TD/INT/avg yards per attempt:
MF/45.5/0/1/5.00
JJ/48.4/2/0/8.29

Now I'm going to try to quantify how the QBs hurt or helped their team when dropping back to pass and instead either getting sacked or taking off running. This is hard to do because I'm just looking at stats, so maybe some of these were called run plays; you be the judge but I think the numbers make sense:

Rushes by QB on 3rd and 10+ (clearly a passing down, taking a sack or running the ball and not making a first down is a bad thing):
QB/Number of rush attempts/number of 1st downs
MF/14/2
JJ/12/0

Rushes by QB on 3rd and 7-9 to go (usually a passing down, running without making a first a bad thing)
MF/7/2
JJ/10/2

Rushes by QB on 3rd and 4-6 to go (could have been a called run play, or pass)
MF/4/1
JJ/7/3

I have to say, the numbers don't jump out at you saying JJ tucked the ball down and hurt his team a lot more than Flynn did. The only caveat to that is that the 2007 offense had a lot more snaps, and so more third down opportunities; so JJ's similar numbers of failed third down rush attempts at 10+ yards reflect a higher percentage of the third downs we faced. Still, there's no smoking gun here that MF was a lot better about getting the ball out than JJ was. I'm shocked at these numbers more than any others in this post.

Now here's some eye opening differences for the run game from 2007 to 2009:

1st down avg rush:
2007: 5.11 (11 first down rushes for over 20 yards)
2009 3.61 (2 first down rushes for over 20 yards)

2nd down avg rush:
2007: 4.43
2009: 5.13 (Shep's long run vs Auburn helps this number)

3rd down avg rush:
2007: 5.52
2009: 2.41 (that's ugly)

3rd down and 1-3 to go:
2007: 7.89
2009: 3.65

Let's get a run game going in 2010 and I feel pretty good about our chances.

 

Not that this is concrete evidence that JJ isn't really all that bad, but you just answered a question I posed in another thread, except it was to compare JJ and JR. Either way the stats do support more and more that the O line play and the run game ineffectiveness in 09 was every bit a contributor to our pathetic offense. Which really points to the O line play.

 

Interesting, possibly revealing analysis. At the very least it gives me a little more optimism re: Jefferson going into the year.

As you say, it all comes down to the running game and defense this year. If those things are good, Jefferson merely has to be adequate.

 

Great post.

 

Prime time Football

run the ball

stop the run


LSU had the worst rushing attack in 09 for any Tiger team I can remember

 

Just shows how wins and losses can influence one's opinion on one individual.

 

Call me crazy, but I feel more comfortable with Jefferson as the QB now than I did when Russell was the QB then. I held my breath every time he threw the ball.

 

Conversely, last year I held my breath everytime LSU was third and long (which was A LOT)...

Personally, I won't be comfy until Jefferson connects with Randle and Tolliver for a couple of 30 yard strikes in the first few games. If he can do that (and I have my doubts) this team is going to explode offensively. If he can't, then I don't think the running game is going to do what we all hope it will. It's really hard to establish a solid running attack without at least some respect to play action long pass threats. It can be done, but the OL has to be really, really dominant.

 

No argument here.

I think one reason why Russell's numbers were always inflated [bracing for sh*tstorm] is that he had arguably the best group of receivers LSU has ever had at one time in Bowe, Davis and Doucet. In addition, I have never seen a QB throw as many screens and dump off passes as much as Russell threw, which is why his completion percentage was so high. Doucet, Bowe and Davis were always taking screen passes in the slot, over the middle, near the sideline, and even Hester and Williams were catching dump off passes. That, accompanied with a solid run game, caused the defense to play up, which allowed for Russell to take chances down field.

I guess that was more of a Jimbo Fisher style of offense, though. It would be nice to see some well timed screens and dump off passes early to see JJ get his confidence up for when he goes long.

However, I never want to see Jarrett Lee throw a screen pass ever again. lol

 

The biggest thing I would like to see from JJ this year is anticipating the blitz, and getting the ball out to the hot route in the area vacated by the blitzing LB/S. Both Flynn and Jarrett Lee were quite good at this, but JJ almost never did it last year. Part of that is probably on the OC - I think our coaches were afraid to throw to the middle of the field after 2008, but that's where the hot read is almost always going to be on a LB/S blitz. That would go a long ways in making defenses play us more honestly on both run plays and pass plays, not knowing if we might dump the ball to the TE or WR when the send blitzers after us.

Would also love to see some more crossing routes, forcing the LBs to stay back from the LOS a little bit.

It's hard to believe JJ's stats were as good as they were, considering we basically conceded the middle of the field last year in the passing game.