As much as starts do matter, teams like Boise St and Utah prove that coaching is more important on any given game day.
Stars are somewhat of a self fulfilling proficiency. These services often base star rating off the caliber school that is interested in the athlete. Therefore signees of LSU, Texas, Florida, etc are going to have higher star ratings by default. Often you will see a player without any star rating suddenly get four stars just because a high profile school offered them.
Recruiting rankings are not "stats." They are opinions. And even actual stats don't tell the whole story. Yes, Utah and Boise State/Idaho do well with lower-ranked recruiting classes... but is that "proof" of "better coaching" at Utah and Boise State/Idaho or is that "proof" of crappy recruiting rankings when it comes to Utah and Boise State/Idaho recruits? I think it is more "proof" of crappy recruiting rankings when it comes to Utah and Boise State/Idaho recruits. Although I think the recruiting services do a good job overall, when I look at the bios of the guys doing the recruiting rankings, they aren't that impressive at all compared to the bios of guys on the coaching staffs of Div 1 football teams, including Utah or Boise State/Idaho. This is why most Div 1 football teams, including Utah and Boise State/Idaho, pay their coaching staffs a lot more money than the recruiting services pay their talent evaluators. If any of these talent evaluators for the recruiting services were truly worth their salt... then wouldn't one of them get hired to make the bigger bucks on the coaching staff of a Div 1 football team? I haven't seen it happen yet.
How many guys do Utah and Boise State put in the NFL compared to the schools that have 3.4 star or better averages per class? I bet it's a fraction. The recruiting rankings are reasonable at predicting potential. But they are useless at predicting team potential. USC, and LSU for the last two years, is proof of that. Coaching matters, the conference one plays in matters, the facilities at the school matter, the climate in the locker room matters, the compliance of the ahtletic department with NCAA rules matters. There are far more Patrick Petersons getting drafted in early rounds than there are Jacob Hesters. I think the services are fine for what they are intended for - entertainment for those of us who just can't get enough college football.
"Stats" are just abstract numbers that people manipulate and massage to support their "opinions." They are a way to measure qualitative skills with a quantitative system. That is exactly what the star system does.
The only thing they can't measure is HEART. Hester had HEART and became a hell of a good player and Carter didn't. He was just fast. That is what I like about Miles. He wasn't big enough to play on the O line at Michigan - he did. He had HEART. He attacks coaching with the same spirit - whether good or bad.
