Having ability and no brains still equates to a bust. If you don't produce on the field, it makes no difference. It's not like he worked hard, kept his nose clean and then had a career-ending injury. Was Cecil Collins not a bust? He produced for a few games, broke a leg and went crazy. Perriloux produced for a few games and stayed crazy. Hardly worth the investment in time and money. Especially considering the perpetual black eye he gave LSU, and the incredible setback we have suffered as a result of his dismissal. I would say Perriloux 'busted' us far worse than any other 5*.
You and Fish make good points. I still put more weight into on-field production but the fact that their off-field antics limited that production is relevant. I just get annoyed when people suggest that stars don't matter (not that you or Fish were suggesting that). There is a definite correlation between star avg. and production.
Well it seems like they matter more often than not, but it certainly is not a guarantee. Al Woods and Kieland Williams come to mind. Serviceable players but I would say that they fell a bit short of expectations. I think the recruitment sites give you a good snapshot of where a player might be on that particular day, but it is amazing to see how players develop, or don't thereafter. And too many fans put all their faith in these ratings. Suddenly those star rankings trump camp evaluations held by the men that are tasked with giving out scholarships. That has always puzzled me. And then once a 5* player has arrived, he must be plugged in immediately because he is such an "obvious upgrade". Even though 99.99% of us have no idea how that player is developing in practice. Then it is just another reason to blame coaches for not making them the best, and right away. It lends to treating these kids like they are part of a math equation, and we can just plug them in to upgrade. So often it does not work out that way. Humans are not math equations, so I tend to be a bit more hesitant in my star gazing.
You are right about the fact that people put too much faith into recruiting rankings. The fact the Spencer Ware got bumped to a 5 star at the very end last year doesn't automatically make him a better player. But some people fall on the other end of the spectrum. I get the feeling sometimes that they think, because Hester was a 2 star and Carter was a bust 5 star, that we should only go after 2/3 stars that bleed purple and gold.
Probably stems from a general lack of trust of Miles, either in development or evaluation. The recruitment sites have changed so much for players and fans. I know it helps the player that might not get media exposure, but I wonder how much it has corrupted recruiting for really coveted players. Perhaps it balances out, but it has gotten a bit out of hand, imo.
Stars absolutely matter overall. Look at the teams Hawkeye listed...and these are the teams that have done the best in the past decade or so. It is what it is. Every school in the top 5 nationally has won the MNC...at least once...in the last 8 years.
You counted 63 Rival 4/5 stars from the 2006-2009 recruiting classes for LSU. I counted 64 for LSU. How did you count Shomari Clemons (who was listed as a 4-star in 2006 and a 4-star in 2007) and Deangelo Benton (who was listed as a 4-star in 2007 and a 5-star in 2008)? I counted them each twice, just like they were listed on Rivals for each recruiting class...figuring that is what you did. Of the 64 I counted, only 35 are still left on LSU's team. So that would update your list to: Florida 69 Bama 62 Georgia 56 Aub 43 SC 41 Tenn 36 LSU 35 Miss 27 Arky 24 Miss St 17 Ky 8 Vandy 1 Of course, being that LSU lost 29 of the 63-64 four/five star guys you used for your list (45% to 46%), of course the other teams lost 4 and 5 stars as well. But without knowing how many the other teams lost, your list here isn't very accurate. Again, 45% to 46% of the guys you counted for LSU are no longer on the LSU team... that's a HUGE margin of error. A much more accurate evaluation was done by this guy who actually looked at the star rankings of the actual players on each SEC team's 2010 rosters based on both the Rivals and Scout recruiting rankings -- check it out. Maybe you could email the guy and ask him for the data he collected so you could update your data? Talent on SEC Rosters by Average Star Ranking - Team Speed Kills Overall 1. Florida 3.84 2/3t. Bama 3.66 2/3t. Georgia 3.66 4. LSU 3.63 Defense 1. Alabama 4.09 2. Florida 3.86 3/4t. South Carolina 3.77 3/4t. LSU 3.77 5. Georgia 3.73 Offense 1. Florida 4.36 2. LSU 3.86 3/4t. Auburn 3.73 3/4t. Georgia 3.73 5. Alabama 3.68 6. Arkansas 3.50
Not speaking to the "bust" or not issue but I'll never forget the 1997 game vs. Auburn @ LSU. We lost the game but Cecil Collins had over 200 yards rushing. It wasn't just the number it was how he looked running the ball. It was almost as if he was a man among boys. Speed, power and moves. IMHO, had he not had issues he would have ended up being the best RB @ LSU ever. What a waste. He rushed for 150 the week before and after. Broke his leg against Vanderbilt the next week. He never put on an LSU uniform again. Yep, a four game "career." If you can't watch the entire video below, at least fast forward to the play that begins at 9:21 (The volume is low on this one ) [media]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P6mpmox6gx8[/media]
