Military So ISIS & the Middle East

But one must understand . . . the same thing happened after 9/11 with Al Qaeda. Dozens of local terror groups in the Middle East started identifying with Al Qaeda even though they had no control or logistical support form the core organization. A few of them, like ISIS, have broken ranks with Al Qaeda, just as Al Qaeda had earlier broken ranks with Islamic Jihad, that it had once been a part of. Now the local terror groups are identifying with ISIS, but they still are not a monolithic and have radically different agendas in many cases.

Libya has a hundred militias in operation right now with agendas ranging from "Arab Spring"-type democratic reform to bat shit crazy radical groups that don't get along. This Libyan faction is trying to get attention for recruiting locals with ISIS orange jumpsuits and beheadings. This stuff is like porn to radical islamists.

Yes, they all love each other, but they aren't allied. They can be dealt with individually. African nations seem to have had enough and realize that the old colonial powers will no longer be stepping in to solve their problems. Five countries are mobilizing against Procol Harum and we should support them with logistics and intelligence.

The two are not mutually exclusive. They may be nuttier than a squirrel turd, but their military adventures have been halted with airpower and they are desperate to change the game back in their favor. They are back to the guerrilla war they practiced in Iraq--IED's and ambushes. Only we aren't going to be suckered back into a knife fight on their turf on their terms. They made a lot of suicide attacks this week to get attention but it only deprived them of their bravest guys as usual. It's kind of desperate. They know their best hope is for the West to decide to pack up and go home and, as usual, they completely misread the western psyche with these brutal executions of prisoners. That may strike fear into the middle eastern heart, but it only hardens the hearts of European/Americans and fills them with a resolve to confront it.

These ISIS fools are blundering worse than Saddam. They might have sat out there in the desert and established autonomy from the Shia running eastern Iraq, just as the Kurds did in the North. If they have behaved themselves they might have gotten huge support from the Saudis and Gulf States to oppose Iranian-backed Shia in Iraq. But no, they allowed themselves to get caught up in the radical islamist agenda of the old AQ in Iraq which broke with bin Ladin over the beheadings almost a decade ago. So they went to war with Syria with backing from the Turks. Then they overreached by invading Iraq and lost their Turkish logistical support. They also lost support from nearby Arab countries that could foresee the same kind of meddling in their countries. It takes a special kind of incompetence to maneuver yourself into a shooting war with the United States of America, but they have managed that, too.

They are still landlocked with no allies, no major outside support, no economy to speak of, a restless population, and a army consisting of many foreigners working for money that is drying up. Now their military mobility has been taken away, their oil exports blocked, and 60 nations are working to deprive them of the rest of their support and weakening them. They have outraged not only the west, but also most of the middle east and even Russia and China are not getting involved with these characters.

Suicide bomber vests and prisoner executions are reprehensible, but they are not going to take down any countries. It won't hold any territory. It just makes more enemies. In the overall sense they are pinprick attacks and show the desperation of ISIS to reverse the slide that they are on.

Goddamn Egypt actually got mad enough to take military action, which probably surprised the shit out of them as much as it did us. When you give them 2 billion a year in military aid, you can say "Hey, we don't take that shit, why don't you take a few of those 225 shiny F-16's and show those guys who is boss . . . or maybe you really don't need so much modern airpower?"

Appearance can often be deceiving. Now the Taliban is blowing up mosques in Pakistan instead of American bases in Afghanistan and the Pak military is hitting them hard at last. Many lamented the Muslim Brotherhood taking over Egypt and I said not to worry because we own the Egyptian military who is not about to give up power. So now we have a proxy for fighting the Islamists in Libya. And we are lining them up to deal with ISIS. Jordan had doubled down. The UAE had gotten back into the fight. Guerrilla wars are never short and sweet like The Gulf War. It takes time and cooperation from locals and mostly to takes patience.

We win by being judicious as to where we apply military and economic power to hurt the bad guys and strengthen the good guys. The locals must have skin in the game, we have learned than we cannon impose our values on anybody, they have to earn their own freedoms. Until they do, we must stay out of their internal fights and pick and choose carefully who we support and oppose. We only take action when it is essential and when we can be decisive.

 

Well, that is a poor paraphase. But it is true that the recruiting base for islamist groups is unemployed young men in the middle east. They have to little to do and no prospects for jobs, money, marriage, so they go off to be a martyr. Many would be better lured by jobs and a future than by jihad, but it ain't there for them.