I think we made the correct choice, just didn’t execute. There’s an old adage though, about go for the win at home, OT on the road.
All emotions aside, you don't go for 2 on the last play of the game to win unless you are a pathetically desperate team. You are giving your team only a 1 play chance to win. Anything can happen and as it was said before, it is at best a 50% chance to convert and win. Maybe there are extenuating circumstances like your kicker is hurt or he has missed the last 3 extra points. In normal play, you odds are better to tie and play for overtime in that situation. Now, when you would think about going for two in the 4th quarter and you are down by 14. When you get that first TD you go for two knowing if you miss and score again you will have the second change to make it and tie the game if you fail. If you make the first one, you also can set your team up to win the game with only an extra point on the second TD. This was pulled off perfectly in the1969 Game of the Century, Texas vs. Arkansas. Going for two is a high risk high reward bet. Increase your opportunities to convert and opportunities of outcome by going for two on the first touchdown, not the last play of the game.
Not one person has adequately explained why going for two is more "pathetic, desperate, risky" or whatever than going into OT. What isn't risky about CFB OT? It is the same roughly 50% odds of winning. You may end up playing 3, 5, 7 OT periods. You may get someone injured. You have to give the other team at least one possession. You have to go and do a coin toss. You give the team that just coughed up a 14-point lead a chance to rest and regroup. YOU MAY STILL LOSE THE GAME. At least, with a 2 pointer, I hold the ball. I can call the play. I can catch a defense tired as hell and on its heels. I can attack and take the game from my opponent, like a man.
Special teams last year, kick, special teams and circumstances of this game and specifically this drive, rush a 2 point team out there. IMHO. YMMV.
something about a blind hog and an acorn…. from twatter: Wilson Alexander @whalexander_ Brian Kelly, asked about not going for two at the end, said he thought LSU would win in overtime. He cited a 96% success rate kicking the extra point and 47% rate going for two from analytics used by the staff. 8:20 PM · Sep 8, 2022
Oh man. I was ready to let this issue drop. I hate Kelly even more now. With this statement, there are only two conclusions. He is a fucking idiot, or he thinks the press and fans are. I don't know which is worse. The calculus in that moment is not whether converting the PAT is more likely than the 2PT. Of course it is! A chimpanzee understands this, and the chimp would not need to consult his analytics staff. No, coach, this is the question you bounce off of your analytics staff: "What are the odds of converting this 2PT, and what are the odds of winning a game that has gone into OT?" And the answer would come back, "About 50% for either. Do you really not know this?"
Nor was the defense The road to hell is covered with flat squirrels that couldn't make an on the spot decision I wasn't a fan of the hire when it happened, then I let the talking heads convince me that things were going to be fine...yeah I'm not so sure of that now.
