I have no issue with Turkey's action. The president seems to have done well so far and said the right thing. What happens next after Russia's response is as critical. Its hard to predict what Putin will do and what his measure of Obama is. So far in all previous potential confrontations Obama has not stood tall. He backed off his red line when Assad used and continues to us chemical weapons (mustard gas is a chemical weapon). He has been very passive on other belligerent acts done by the Russians including recent bombing of the moderate Syrian Rebels. If he thinks Obama will back down he may go too far and force worse actions. The president by his weakness has invited a bully into the war. There is a price that may be paid for that.
My understanding is something along these lines: U.S. wants Assad out in Syria. Russia blocks initial US operations against Assad. U.S. instigates Ukrainian political turmoil on Russian border in retaliation for Russian opposition in Syria. Russian attention concentrated more on Ukraine gives US free hand in Syria. ISIS is the U.S. proxy/agent of change in Syria. ISIS gains strength in Syria but Putin, with Ukraine problems increasingly behind him undertakes a tremendous policy change and begins active Russian military involvement in the Middle East. That was a big step. Previously, U.S. Military has been the big dog in the region. U.S., behind cover of Turkish military raises the stakes by giving the go ahead for a shoot down of Russian military aircraft. I doubt Turkey would do this without previous U.S. consent. (I assume airspace incursions happen fairly often all over.) What does Russia do now? Shoot down Turkish aircraft? Stir up Kurdish rebels in Iraq/Turkey? Russian and Iranian interests could begin to converge in a big way. How about nuclear technology? Russian cyber attacks on U.S. interests? I don't have any idea, but I think things could get worse in a hurry.
President Obama has a lot to do with this, going forward. He is fundamentally the head of NATO, which includes, of course, Turkey. Depending on Russian reaction, this could trigger NATO treaty obligations. That becomes lose - lose instantaneously, either we, as a NATO member (leader) become embroiled in conflict, or we walk away from our primary military alliance. Talk about Hobson's Choice. Here is what is worrisome. We have a glut of sensors focused on this region. I would have thought, if we had "good news" we would have been out by now, laying the whole thing out, showing events occurred per the Turkish reporting. The fact that we have been mute, so far, in regard to track, intercept, and where metal met metal, raises the possibility that our sensor data does not support the events as reported by the Turks. Maybe such data will be forthcoming I just thought we would have validated the deal by now. If we could.
The Russians have repeatedly operated over claimed Turkish airspace since they arrived in country. The news has been made countless times with lots of bluster from our supposed ally, Turkey. So Putin has, for months, been griping at the west about how ISIS was being funded. Apparently once he got forces in theater he decided to do something about it...you know, prosecute a war at its source. Trucks loaded with oil have been using several well known roads through Turkman controlled areas to be sold on the black market...all with the tacit approval of our " ally" Turkey. The Russians started targeting these trucks 3 weeks ago and we actually tried to enforce a no-fly zone to effectively protect these trucks as not only do they fund the guys we're fighting but the guys we're supporting. So if you're the Russians and you're backing Assad and these guys are taking yours guy's resources, selling it ( to your supposed partners against terrorism) to fund the guys your fighting ...things get complicated. Then your SU-24 is ready to lay the wood on a convey and it's on the border. Two F-16's bounce your ass on the border, I mean even the US is saying IF it was in Turkey it was for seconds...then you lose a helo that is out looking for your airmen. Turkey is a weird country, takes in a couple of million Russian tourists, one of Russia's largest trading partners since they are not in the EU, even buys Russian military hardware as a NATO member. Maybe Putin declares his own air-zone and brings in 3-4 air regiments and S-500's. He says basically if you're in my zone, you're dead meat. We all know Obama would fold like a cheap tent and hide behind the French. The Chinese are going to laugh and the UK is defanged. This likely the only strategy to insure HRC never wins and Russia takes the lead in that mess...we're not equipped to handle it.
I agree he has not been strong on any of this, I have always argued that, but people lay too much at his feet. What are we going to do, start a war with Russia? Turkey? Look at the geopolitics of all of this, unless we are ready to engage these countries, then you hit them with sanctions and you isolate them as much as possible. I cant stand the tough guy talk around here because, most republican Presidents who are prudent would do the same.
