Where has all the peak oil doomsayers gone? According to Hubbert we should have peaked in 1970 and we should all be living in a Mad Max type post apocalyptic landscape. But here we are in 2015 and the world is awash in oil, maybe not cheap, but not too shabby. Aside from the massive discoveries made around the world in the last decade, like the huge 'Lower Tertiary' play in the Gulf of Mexico', the tar sands of Alberta can supply the world for the next 100 years. Want to venture a guess at the next giant discoveries? Or forecast a new peak oil day?
Don't imagine that oil will last forever, because it won't. And cheap oil will play out much sooner. Don't confuse Peak Oil with depletion. Peak Oil is the theoretical point at which oil production peaks and after which there will be a steady decline. Depletion is about falling reserves and supply. Hubbard was actually pretty accurate with what we knew about oil technology when he made it and he was clear that he was talking about oil that is “producible by methods now in use.” The spike we see now is due to fracking and other new technology allowing us to get at product that was unrecoverable before the technology was developed. And it is a spike, not a long-lasting trend. The oil is actually being depleted faster. Moreover the oil is not cheap. Production is hurt by low prices from cheap Saudi crude that they are pumping like mad to try to hurt our expensive fracking production. We can get at more oil, but it will be much more expensive to get it. And the oil companies know it. "All the easy oil and gas in the world has pretty much been found. Now comes the harder work in finding and producing oil from more challenging environments and work areas. ” — William J. Cummings, Exxon-Mobil company spokesman “ It is pretty clear that there is not much chance of finding any significant quantity of new cheap oil. Any new or unconventional oil is going to be expensive. ” — Lord Ron Oxburgh, former CEO of Shell Oil "[World] reserves are confused and in fact inflated. Many of the so-called reserves are in fact resources. They're not delineated, they're not accessible, they’re not available for production. ” — Sadad I. Al-Husseini, former VP of ARAMCO The peak of world oilfield discoveries occurred in 1965 and the rate of discovery has been falling steadily since. Most oil and natural gas reserve growth comes not from discoveries of new fields, but from extensions and additional gas found within existing fields. Unconventional resources like tar sands and oil shale are not counted as reserves because so much of it is economically unrecoverable. Unconventional sources are more labor and resource intensive to produce, require extra energy to refine, have higher production costs and up to three times more greenhouse gas emissions per barrel. There may be 100 years of oil there, but it will be increasingly expensive to get. It surely wouldn't last 100 years if it were cheap and easy to obtain. We are stretching the limited oil reserves the best we can and will continue to do so, but the oil will not last indefinitely.
Speaking from a completely selfish self preservation, better for my job standpoint I'd like to see it jump to about $90-$100 a barrel. Just sayin
