I've felt Bama was strongly in it for a long time now. There's a group that swears it's over. "Word has it" ... that kind of crowd feels Bama is leading. I don't see his recruitment ending any time soon.
Too much is being made of top ten/in state talent leaving. The class coming out of the state of Georgia is unusually highly ranked by volume. Yet, if you look at Georgia's top ten you'll find UGA, AU, Clemson, UT, Ohio State, AU, and Michigan.