I agree with too much time from now until then but you are totally wrong about Obama winning in a mirror of 2008. A lot of people didn't know what Obama was about but voted for him because he wasn't a Republican or because he was black or he was their party. Charlie Rose was talking with, I can't remember the other journalists name? Neither knew what Obama was about but people voted him in anyway. Obama got away with not having much of a track record the first time around. He won't get away with that the second time around, especially if the economy doesn't rebound. The News Media won't get away with propping him up and blaming Bush in 2011, Obama will be his own man.
My point is that Palin will motivate the Dem base like nobody's business. The mania that ensues will neutralize any possible enthusiasm there is on the right for Palin/against Obama. So, mirror of 2008. No huge mandate. But not all that close, either.
I get it in that respect. I don't know, I think the Obama's base could become discouraged if Obama does things that they don't want him to do such as more troops to Afghanistan. We shall see.
That 5% will not be voting Republican and it's doubtful they will go independent. He will keep his base. What he will and is now losing is the moderates, especially independents. Obama winning another term depends 100% on whether or not the Republican leadership gets their heads out of their a$$ or not. So far their arrogant a$$es have shown no sign of loosening the grip on their deeply plunged heads.
I think its very early to be thinking in those terms. Like Red pointed out, starting with Carter, the only "Washington insider" we've elected President in the last 35 years is Bush 41. Reagan was a known commodity, but never held an office higher than governor. Clinton, Bush 43 and Obama were essentially neophytes to the national political scene. So a viable GOP candidate could easily emerge in the next 18 months. I think a great many Americans consistently vote their wallet in the Presidential election, and that may be the case more than ever in '12. Rebounding economy guarantees 4 more years. Stagnancy + a decent contender who brings a consistent conservative message = one term. Obama will get a boost from a national media that most likely will continue to fawn over him, at least through the election. Then, unless the country is booming, all bets are off; they'll go looking for the next Savior.
considering how hard a time theyve had finding decent candidates since 88, i think its harder to believe one will emerge.
I tend to agree. If the economy rebounds markedly and quickly, Obama wins again no matter who runs against him. If the economy drops in any fashion, Obama is done no matter who runs against him. But the economists are predicting a long, slow but steady rise in the economy. I ain't sure exactly how that scenario plays out but I can see that it will matter very much who the GOP runs against him.
