Obama “turns out I’m really good at killing people”

Indeed. Not just their free market economies but their national security, which can involve us. The other former Soviet republics will all feel threatened, 10 of whom are now members of NATO.

Moreover, the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances is an international treaty signed in 1994 in Budapest by Ukraine, the United States of America, Russia, and the United Kingdom concerning the nuclear disarmament of Ukraine and its security relationship with the signatory countries. Among other things, it requires all parties to . . .

1. Respect Ukrainian independence and sovereignty within its existing borders.
2. Refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine.
3. Refrain from using economic pressure on Ukraine in order to influence its politics.

A Russian invasion or military coercion will be in direct violation of this treaty and Obama is quite rightly telling Russians our position.

I suspect that the Russians are just paranoid about their Crimean bases and do not intend to take military action against the Ukrainian government at this time. They have a right to be worried about Ukrainian nationalists causing trouble and terror at their bases and the Russian civilians nearby. If they maintain that the mystery troops are just Russian marines guarding and increasing security at their bases, then Putin will have backed away from further incursions, likely.

 

17% of the Ukrainian population are ethnic Russians, former Soviets mostly. Ukraine doesn't want to give the most valuable territory they have to dissident ethnic Russians, any more than we would want to give California, Nevada, Utah, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas to dissident ethnic Mexicans.

 

Local Russians are not taking up arms in Ukraine either. The point is that you can't solve minority ethnic differences by simply dividing the country.

 

We are not telling the Ukrainians what to do. We are telling the Russians to leave Ukraine alone.

We are not interfering with Ukraine, the Russians are! Are you really keeping up with this at all? Kluke and I have already listed reasons why it is important. Did you miss it?

 

No it ain't. This is a limited incursion around Russian bases in Crimea at this point, it can go many ways including the invasion and occupation of the rest of the country. They can leave quickly or they can stay a long time.

You aren't thinking in terms of international geopolitics. This is a very big deal and the Superpower cannot shirk its role here. NATO is involved, international treaties are involved, European economies are involved, this has the opportunity to trigger another war if steps are NOT taken to counter this. This has been explained before, I won't bother to answer if you refuse to read it.

It is obvious to everyone from the last 100 years of experience that wars cannot solve geopolitical problems in Europe. This is not the middle east, this is Europe. Poland and the Baltic States are freaked by this and they are NATO allies. Ukraine is a NATO affiliate that we are not obliged to defend. But if Russia occupies it militarily, it changes the balance in eastern Europe and NATO will have to redeploy to defend member states on the borders with Russia and Ukraine.

Clearly most nations are going to stand against this, probably even China who has a thing about sovereignty. America must lead and will stand against this, too. It doesn't always mean war, stop thinking like a Neocon. Putin is taking a very big risk of being isolated over this, just when the Russian economy is finally learning how to conduct international commerce. He pushing the envelop in a big way. Ukraine is filled with A well-armed anti-Russian population that would make occupation very costly. He's fighting separatists in Chechnya, Dagestan, Moldova, and with the Tatars in central Asia. He has already intervened in Georgia, carving out a Russian minority area as a separate state that nobody recognizes except Russia. He has a politically restless population of his own that is already protesting this Ukrainian incursion and does not want to be isolated or a return to Soviet policies. The international community doesn't want to accept another Georgia/Ossetia situation, not in Europe with a country as large and strategically important as Ukraine. Certainly NATO cannot accept it.

I expect we start ramping up diplomatic pressure quickly followed by economic pressure and trailed by unstated but obvious military activity among NATO allies. Russia can be kicked out of the G-8 which would be very bad for them. We could suspend NATO cooperation with Russia. The G-20 could start applying economic sanctions. We could accelerate missile defense systems in Europe. Turkey could close the straits. Russia will veto any UN Security council actions, but the General Assembly will not support Russia on this.

Putin is taking a chance here. He can crush Ukraine but he cannot rekindle the Cold War because Russia is a shell of the old Soviet Union and cannot hope to beat NATO in a general war. If international opposition is clear and strong, he might back down like Khrushchev did in 1962. Obama needs to speak clearly, but take his time and get a coalition of support while ramping up the pressure.