I don't know where that avatar came from; I didn't load it. Was it automatically generated since the changeover? I'll try to find one that is worth a crap. Obviously, I haven't spent much time on TF lately. Relatively new position and intensive training have taken much of my time. I have to admit this is the most challenging position I've held. With regards to Pakistan, they are an ally as of today. They are struggling to keep radicalism under wraps. Air/UAS strikes in Pak achieve little, while at the same time advancing the radicals' cause. The strikes do provide some breathing room momentarily, but in the end it's still Pakistanis that are being killed, either directly or indirectly through collateral damage. Without going into specifics, there are areas of Pakistan that are not federally administered; people don't recognize a line on a map and families/tribes don't make a distinction between those lines. Is there a correlation between the strikes and the areas from which radicalism has spread? The Taliban and AQ provide much of the muscle, but there is another that has proven to be more powerful. Here's the ugly truth about Pakistan: we need them more than they need us. And they know it. Threats to withhold aid is laughable to them. In a general sense, our national level leadership, both civilian and military, has failed the US over the last 14 years, and especially the last 6 years or so. Information is spread much more rapidly as the internet has taken hold, and subsequently, social media. The leadership has failed to recognize "shut up and color" is no longer a sufficient means to guide the military. Joe (meaning GI Joe, the average army guy) isn't stupid; may be lazy compared to generations past, but not stupid. There is a price to pay at the strategic level for having an all-volunteer force, and that price is an explanation of their sacrifice. Drug abuse (both prescription and non-prescription), indiscipline and suicides are appalling; I see it nearly every day. We'll beat a kid up in the media and berate his actions at the highest levels of our government for urinating on the body of a dead guy who tried to kill him (not condoning the action), but never explain to that kid why he's there in the first place.
True, but only in the short run. Once we are out of Afghanistan our need for Pakistani roads and airspace shrinks dramatically. Our improving relations with India give us less reason to cultivate Pakistan as our regional ally. Indeed once Pakistan realizes how much their intransigence is driving us into alliance with India, they will greatly rethink how much they need US support. There is going to be a third war between Pakistan and India in time and both will need US support or at least for the US to sit it out. It's going to be a long, long time before the US public forgets that Pakistan harbored bin Ladin and still harbors the remaining Al Qaeda leadership. Pakistan can no longer count on unquestioned US support. If the US were so foolish as to get into a shooting war with Iran, we would require Pakistani bases and airspace and they would have us over a barrel again. But that scenario is unlikely. There is already an Islamic nuclear arsenal and it is in Pakistan. We are going to have to be ready to deal with Pakistan if they get aggressive . . . and to ignore them under lesser circumstances.
Unfortunately, that nuclear piece is a major concern as the radicalism spreads. It is only a matter of time. India has always been Pakistan's nemesis, but the Pak army, and by default the govt, knows the most immediate threat is internal. Their combat power inside Pak has shifted significantly since 2009. They also know they can rapidly destabilize Afghanistan; they've done it before. In my opinion, the US strategy in Afg is a bust. We use fancy buzzwords like "whole of government approach", yet it is the military that's shouldering the burden. Corruption is the biggest obstacle in Afg, followed by rule of law; the military cannot provide a solution for either. But the military is used because we have the budget; the state department does not, nor are there enough in the state dept willing to do the kind of hard work necessary to actually build those kinds of institutions. And those that are willing, don't understand or refuse to accept the military's role in security, and in some cases outward animosity toward the military since the "surge". The friction that exists between some PRTs and military folks is ridiculous. And I haven't even touched on the travesty of insider threat.
Afghanistan is a tribal region. It is not and has never been a country as we know it. Afghans have killed each other for millenia over some of the worst land on the planet. The only time they stop is when some Superpower like Alexander, The British, The Soviets, or The Americans try to take charge of the place and then they band together to fight the outsiders. Karzai and his corrupt, lying government with its ineffective and untrustworthy military are totally unworthy allies. It's South Vietnam all over again. We picked the wrong gooks and died fighting for them while they shit all over us. We win this war by leaving the whole clusterfuck to the Afghans and let them get back to what they do best . . . killing each other. The Taliban may take over for a while, but when we are gone, they will break down into tribal factions again. Sooner or later the Taliban, who are mostly Pakistani, are going to piss off enough of them to get taken down themselves. But the Taliban is smarter now. They now know that American airpower is crippling and they don't want it to come back. They now know that we can take the whole place down and stay as long as we want to. They don't want anymore of that either. Al Qaeda foreigners from Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and Egypt brought all of this death and destruction down upon the Taliban and they know it. They are unlikely to allow Al Qaeda the kind of bases and open support that they did before 9/11. If Al Qaeda crops up there again, we know how to handle it. The drones will be active, Special Ops will be active, CIA will be active, and if needed the big bombers can return. Occupation of the country buys us nothing we need.
Well said Red especially your first point. Afganistan is not a state it is a collection of tribes as are most of the Islamic world. That was our biggest mistake in Iraq thinking it was a western secular society. Only Al Quaida's foolish suicidal bloodbath against any and all Iraqis provided the opening Petreaus was able to take advantage of. You are right about the Taliban the just want foreigners out so they can kill each other. I say let them.
We tend to apply Western thought and processes to these areas. Petraeus' strategy in Iraq worked to a certain extent, but the terrain in Afg does not lend itself to that strategy. Plus, Iraq did not have a safe haven on its border like Pakistan. Again, AQ, though weakened, and the Taliban provide he muscle; another group provides support.
