Militants mortar Israel and Israeli jets bomb Gaza...

China has the largest population in the world, the fastest growing economy in the world, the 2nd largest economy in the world and holds more US dollars in reserve than any other country.

They have cash money to spend and are not in debt. They are an ideal business partner. They also couldn't give a damn about the type of government they are dealing with which makes them have more options for partnerships globally.

They have enough military clout to be a serious player in any regional Asian disputes. They can also use the N. Korean dictatorship to harass the US and its partners in Asia if they like and not be directly involved.

The Russians are the world's largest oil/natural gas producer and still a nuclear power and has a military they are not afraid to use whether the West approves or not. I don't remember Putin running his Georgian operations through the UN Security Council, do you?

Brazil, India, Indonesia, Pakistan and the entire continent of Africa are not represented on the UN Security Council. The P5 membership is a direct result of the Allies winning WWII over 60 years ago. No Muslim countries are represented.

The United Nations and the US dollar's reign as "our currency but your problem" were tolerable after WWII with the US's ability to impose its will on the global political structure. That day is rapidly coming to an end and it will show its face most likely in a repudiation of the dollar as the reserve currency. The current political structure does not represent the wealth and population of the current global reality and it has to change. Wars used to be the result of these periodic balance of power reassessments but now soft power and Cold Wars are the methods that nation states and coalitions use against either other because of the threat of nuclear war. Let's hope it stays that way.

 

Red:

Nobody is about to go blockading the Chinese. The economic pain inflicted on a wobbly American economy would be too easy. Talk about bringing about an end to the US dollar in a hurry....any talk of American blockades of China would do the trick.

Red:

You are missing the point. Russia is not a super power but it is a regional player in the Central Asian sphere and they do have negotiating leverage because of this. We can't run around piss down the Russian's back and telling them it's raining. What ever happened to those anti-ballistic missiles that were supposed to be installed in Poland and the Czech Republic? Oh, yeah...we decided not to put them because of....Russia, that's who. The Russian national interests are a factor on the global chessboard and to act as if they are not is naive.

If you are saying that the US is willing to enforce the US dollar's role as reserve currency at the end of a nuclear tipped gun then I disagree. Nuclear weapons are best used to deter aggression....they are a solution that fits very few scenarios.

The US is the lone superpower and will likely remain the "first among equals" so to speak but the role as global hegemon is coming to an end. With the appearance of balance of power politics the reserve currency will be one of the first items on the table that the US will be forced to part with.

And about the UN.....does it not seem odd to you that India, Brazil, Indonesia and the entire continent of Africa have practically no say in the UN? The US gains the most by the continued acceptance and increased importance of the UN but the UN will continue to lack legitimacy if it represents such a distorted view of the world.

 

I never suggested that the US would be supplanted by another nation-state as the sole superpower. The US will be forced into more power sharing arrangements than in the recent past is my point. Some of these newer arrangements will certainly address the issue of the international reserve currency and the failure of the current framework to reflect the current economic reality. The dollar as reserve currency is too advantageous to the US to allow it to continue.

I am not suggesting the US will disappear or something. Just that it will be reduced to the point where we are no longer in the position to project military power wherever we like without consequences. The consequences will certainly be economic in nature since no other country will be able to engage us in direct military conflict. It would be suicide.

But oil embargos, trade wars and currrency manipulation would be acts that are difficult to combat when you are a net oil importer, when your manufacturing base has been substantially eroded and when your country is the largest debtor nation the planet has ever seen.

The most likely coalition of nations able to use these weaknesses against the US are those that are oil producers, net exporters of manufactured goods and those that buy our debt.

Which sounds a helluva lot like a coalition of Iran, Russia and China to me. And the Indians, Brazilians and most countries in Africa do not look kindly to the US domination of the United Nations and its refusal to encourage the expansion of the Security Council to include some representatives of the most populous and economically vibrant nations of the world. Instead we cling to an outmoded structure so that Great Britain and France of all people can determine the direction of global politics.

We can't win every battle especially with Bernanke at the helm........so I figure the dollar is the weak link.

I could be wrong but if I had 50 grand lying around I would buy gold. I assume you would buy bonds or something. In ten years we could definitely see who is right.

 

-Again, no single country. More like the East versus West or North versus South.

-And the consequences will increasingly be negative for the US dollar.

-Your dismissal of the major growth engine in the global economy doesn't seem to be warranted by the facts of the situation.

-The entire United Nations framework is tilted to protect the interests of those who created it, the victorious powers after WWII. The World Bank and IMF or also no friend to the emerging markets of the world. The situation is unsustainable.

-Which begs the question....why not all in bonds? Why do you expect other nations of the world not to do exactly what you have done and diversify their investments?

 

When the dollar bites the dust everything will crumble.