Of those 5 teams...IMO, we match up with tOSU the best and Missouri the worst. Missouri reminds me a lot of Kentucky but with more weapons.
Reesing is short. I would guess he is about as mobile as Matt Flynn. Definitely not a dual threat QB, however. Only Pat White is the dual threat QB from that list of teams. I think WVU gives us the most trouble for our defense. Then I would say Missouri. I do agree we match up best with Ohio State.
In essence, the games remaining to be played can be considered the playoff everyone is clamoring for. With the exception of the Luckeyes, a loss by any of these teams; including us, and the NC is gone. I know TECHNICALLY it's not a playoff, but it's still pretty exciting.
I think the point spread is a little high for WVU. I did adjust the odds from 60 to 75. When I originally posted, I thought maybe it was a little low, but went with my gut. I didn't realize the perception out there is WVU being 17 pts better than a pretty damn good UConn team. So I settled for 75 percent. Adjustments made in my original post.
LSU vs West Virginia - most likely LSU vs Kansas or Mizzou - most assured if either wins out, however I find that doubtful. LSU vs Ohio St - not very likely West Virgina vs Kansas/Mizzou - would happen if LSU loses & either UK or Mizzou wins out. Not very likely that both happen. West Virginia vs Ohio St - LSU, Kansas, and Mizzou all lose. Possible considering we each face tough opponents before the end of the year.
Calulating LSU at 45 percent chance at making it (Arkansas = 75, SEC CG = 60, averaged out UT at 65 and GA at 55, with UT/Kentucky = 50/50) Then you get these odds of finishing in the top 2 in the BCS as follows: 1. W. Virginia....... 55 % 2. LSU................ 45 % 3. Ohio State....... 38 % 4. Missouri........... 26 % 5. Kansas............ 24 % 6. Arizona State..... 9 % 7. Other................ 3 % Assumptions used: Missouri jumps WVU if they win out, ASU jumps tOSU if they win out, any of the top 6 teams lose and they have no shot at the top 2 (although I don't believe that to be true, but I used it for simplicity sake) Maybe SpeedyG can come up with some figures as well. I had a really hard time figuring Ohio State's odds.
An LSU-WVa matchup on that fast Superdome track, after both teams have a month to rest and prepare, should be a great one. Pat White may run for about 300 yards out of that spread, but a great game it'll be nonetheless.
I like all your neat statistical factoids, but I say...IF we win out...we play the winner of Mizzou/Kansas. Either one is capable of beating OU...and OU SHOULD be their opponent in the Big 12 CG. Kansas is already at #2...and Mizzou would easily jump WVU if they win out...which would put them at #2.
