If Penn St. is the undefeated team and Texas has one loss (assuming it came in their next two games) then it is more than likely that we get left out due to our current position.
It seems to me that a victory over Florida in the SECCG would erase the earlier loss to the voters. If it would actually come down to an 11-1 LSU and an 11-1 Florida rematch (which I do not think will happen), I imagine that every national pundit would prep this game as "the winner will go to the NC game," provided either Texas or Penn State loses a game.
Past two national champs having to play each other twice in a season. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it would be the first time ever.
Lets take a look at the teams ahead of us and see if its possible we end up in the MNC game. 1. Texas - They have OSU, Texas Tech, Baylor, Kansas, and A&M left. Thats a rough schedule and they could drop 1 or 2 of those games. 2. Alabama - if we take care of business they are off of our map. 3. Penn State- must lose to Ohio State because i dont think they will lose to Iowa, Indiana, or Michigan State. 4. Oklahoma - K State, Nebraska, A&M, Texas Tech, and OSU. How come oklahoma gets 45 points dropped on a neutral field at 11 a.m. and they only drop to 4? We got 44 dropped on us at the swamp at night and we drop 11 spots. Texas has to lose 2 and OU has to win out to be in the Big 12 championship game. Just dont see it happening. 5. USC - they will win out, but it wont matter unless everyone else has 2 losses. 6. OSU - Oklahoma State has Texas, TTU, Oklahoma, Colorado and Iowa State left, its going to be really hard for these guys to remain undefeated. 7. Georgia - if we take care of business they wont matter, unless they beat florida and win out, and we win out, we will face them in the SECCG. 8. Texas Tech - biggest fraud in the top 10. They will end the season with at least 2 losses maybe 3 or 4, they have ZERO defense. 9. Ohio State - we need to be pulling for them next weekend against Penn St. at the horseshoe. if they win out no way they stay ahead of us if we win out because the human element will keep them out. 10. Florida - biggest surprise of the BCS standings. If they win out and we also win out, a win by us will probably nullify our one loss and put us in the MNCCG. 11. Utah - come on they are Utah. 12. Boise State - will not make the MNNCG. 13 LSU - if we take care of business we should be in, because of the SECCG, and we need it to be against Florida. Anyone think we can do it??? It will be one hell of a special season if we do, because there is no one in the media who has even mentioned it except for gary danielson this morning on the herd with colin cowherd.
Like it or not, USC will continue to get the benefit of the doubt. Embarrassing losses like their latest one are quickly forgotten. They just run up the score a few times and human voters pump them back up.The media will also not let you forget how great they are. It just can't happen. They will have to lose again, and even then, they may finish strong and continue to whine about how nobody wants to face them at the end of the year. If not Miami, then they will get another Rose bowl berth, which in the world of the BCS, is the biggest joke of all, destroy another middlin Big 10 team, proclaim themselves masters of the universe, finish in the top 3 in the polls, sign another ridiculous recruiting class, and then get a top 3 pre-season ranking next year. Rinse and repeat. LSU could make it to the NCG with a bit of help from a few other teams, but they would also have to play much better down the stretch.
I think our chances are better to make a BCS bowl by NOT going to the SECCG, rather than going and losing. History has shown that the loser of that game misses out on a BCS invite.
Here's the quagmire...If Penn State beats OSU, then Penn State will probably be in the championship game because they are playing at a MUCH higher level than the rest of the Big Ten. If OSU beats Penn State, they will be back in the title picture given their new look offense, the quality win, and the early loss against a good team. Also...if OSU wins...USC's SOS will look that much better and given their current standing now, THEY will be back in the hunt with one loss. ONE...if not two...of the above mentioned teams will be there. If only one, it will probably be against a one-loss Big XII champion since the entire world is drooling over the half-dozen NFL QB's in the league. A one-loss SEC Champion will probably be left out since the league as a whole hasn't met preseason expectations while the Big XII has deliverd and the Big Ten / Pac Ten teams are generally more respected right now. IMO, barring any major shakeups (that's not possible, right??) the SEC's last chance of three championships in a row is Alabama...and hopefully LSU screws that up for them.
If we beat Georgia and Bama, then beat Florida in the SECCG, I think we make it to Miami regardless of all of the one loss teams. If everyone has a lost. Its USC vs LSU, and you know why USC will be there, no need to explain that one. But thats alot of Ifs.
My personal opinion is that if Penn State loses, and the Big XII champion and SEC champion have 1 loss, the Big XII champion and SEC champion will be the title game matchup. When you look at the other possibilities, there's USC. I think the computers will keep them out. Then theirs Ohio State/Penn State. Penn State's later loss will be damning. Ohio State will have too much negative feelings to get in.
People dont want to see Ohio St back in it, which severly hurts Penn State because of the Big 10 psych. However, after the last 2 years, I think it boils down to money. They see that teams in the SEC travel well. I figure that willl influence this somehow. So you may be right about the Big XII and SEC. I like the thought.
