LSU's Balance

I keep hearing these bafoons on ESPN, and elsewhere talking about how LSU has this awsome Defense, but our offense is so-so.

This is a complete crock of B.S.

The problem is in how they approach it. They approach everything with raw numbers. Thus, they compare total points allowed and total points for between teams, total yards rushing, total yards passing, etc. This is a false comparison. The real comparison should be, How many points does a team score compared to what the opponent normally allows, and how many points does a team allow compared to what a team normally would score. How many yards rushing do they allow compared to what a team normall rushes, etc.

This is the basis for how I've come dang close to predicting every game since Kentucky. Even the Bama Game, the approach predicted a tie, with a .04 advantage to LSU. [although, I did have to go deeper than one level of opponents on that one, which makes it even more concise]. It was tied in regulation, we won in OT.

LSU is balanced as it gets.

- LSU only allows 60% of what a team would normally score. [40% less]
- LSU scores 140-150% of what teams normally would allow. [40% more]

Let's see.. Bama ... [6.8+[6.8*.4]] = 9.52 points. Look familiar?? Granted our Defense and Special teams had a spectacular outing that night, and held Bama to just 15% of what they normally would score.

Thus, teams on average score 40% less points on us, but we score 40% more points on them. That's pretty dang balanced in my book.

AR doesn't stand a chance. They allow 100% of what a team normally scores, but only score 160% of what a team allows.

160% of 11 is 17 points.
100% of 36 is 36 points. ... AR loses.

:geaux:

 

Not that I agree but lsu is ranked # 79 in total offense, # 99 in passing offense, # 30 in rushing offense, BUT # 18 in scoring offense. How you ask.....because our defense and special teams is so good that they give us short fields to work with......that's what makes lsu's offense look so bad stats wise!!

 

That's why I don't use ESPN's diatribe.

Our offense is much better than the "stats" would indicate. If it was just all defense, we'd be winning games by aTD or so. The thing is, LSU's O scores points off the defenses work. If they couldn't capitalize on the good FP, then I'd consider them a so-so offense. If all we were doing was kicking FGs off the good FPs, then I'd agree our offense is so-so. BUT .. they do capitalize .. and the majoirty of the time, it's with TDs.

Like I said, their "Ranking" system is bogus. They shouldn't be ranking according to points scored .. .but points scored compared to what is expected.

IF we only put up 24 points on Ol Miss the Weekend, it'd be a testimony that something has changed in our offense. Based on this years performances against other teams, we should score about 37 points on Ol Miss. :geaux:

 

This is the oceanlsufan I like to see!!

 

Did I recreate one of ur previous post or somethin'? Sorry.

But hey, its worthy saying again.

 

I think one of the most telling stats for the difference in the offense this year is in the red zone.

LSU is ranked 2nd (behind Stanford) in red zone offense:

46 Drives
45 Scores
35 TD (23 rushing 12 passing)
10 FG

I couldn't find last year's but I know there were definitely more FGs than TDs.

 

Yeah my calculations on that adjusted bama up to 9.8 points allowed vs LSU at 11.2.