LSU vs. USC for #2 in the BCS.....The definitive answer....Look No Further

I sorta compare this USC/Oregon State game against the LSU/Arkansas game. Very similiar opposition (Arkansas maybe slightly better), and both teams playing at home, and both teams needing to make a statement. If USC beats Oregon State 55-24 like we did to Arkansas, you can safely say USC and LSU are pretty much equal. If they have a helluva time beating Oregon State, then we no who is the clear #2 team in the nation...LSU

 

Yes those are our best chances. The only other remote chance is the MiamiOH/BoiseSt. winners combo, but we need USC to finish 4th in one poll and a tie for 3rd or worse in another.

This is how big Syracuse winning is. If Syracuse wins, then LSU is guaranteed the Colley Matrix poll. I personally guarantee the Billingsley poll. This gives LSU 5 polls. They only need to win 1 of the other 2 computer polls. Syracuse losing guarantees LSU losing the Colley poll, thus forcing LSU to win the other 2 polls. I still think LSU will win the other 2 polls, due to the fact that our SOS will be better, not by much, but still better.

I personally like the Syracuse/Boise St. combo the best, if I could only choose 2 teams, it makes the biggest spread in SOS between LSU and USC.

 

I guarantee Billingsley because we have a 1.6 point spread to play with in my projection. 301.3 to 296.7. It would only be a bigger spread if Syracuse and Boise St. wins. I would be worried about this computer poll in the Notre Dame and Hawaii winning combos. but in that case, we are out of luck anyway.

Remember, from our current positions in the SOS, LSU is 54th and USC is 37th. LSU is making a tremendous jump in the SOS vs. what USC is potentially capable of. LSU finishing up to the 30 or 31 spot, and USC 33rd (using the 5 scenarios I project LSU to finish 2nd in the BCS). Even though some of these computer polls use their own SOS computations, there is no doubt that we are making similiar significant jumps in all of the computer polls in SOS. This is why I project NYTimes and Wolfe as well. Syracuse and Boise St. win, and the difference is even bigger between LSU and USC.

 

Read the last paragraph in my last post. LSU's big jump in the SOS will be a significant part of their scoring this week plus the fact that Georgia is a very strong 5th in the Wolfe and strong in NYTimes as well. NYTimes weighs late season victories more than early season victories (i.e., LSU victory now worth more than the first time we played Georgia).

 

Believe me that's a sigificant jump in just 1 week. I would not have posted all this stuff if I wasn't so sure.