LSU vs. USC for #2 in the BCS.....The definitive answer....Look No Further

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 30, 2003.

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  1. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

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    That's about right, since Tellshow's projected strength of schedule is based on automatically assuming the higher-rated team will win every remaining game.

    Naturally, the closer to the end of the season you get, the more accurate his projections become (e.g., many projected wins by a 1-0 team over a 0-1 team will not happen, whereas nearly all if not all 8-2 teams will beat 2-8 teams).

    This week, Boise State is projected to beat Hawaii, ND over Syracuse, Miami (O) over Bowling Green, LSU over Georgia, USC over Oregon St., etc., all based on who is rated higher at the start of the game.

    I also think saying that a 7-win Oregon State would beat USC 1 out of every 10 matchups is fair, too.

    Personally, I'm not hanging my hat on Syracuse but looking for Bowling Green to defend their home turf (where they are 10-0 this year) on Thursday, ND, USC,LSU win and a very nervous Tiger Nation stay up past midnight pulling for those Boise State Broncs to bring us on home.
     
    TejasTiger, Dec 3, 2003
    #41
  2. ramah

    ramah Founding Member

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    OK, THEN--------->THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO (Favorites win) REQUIRES LSU TO MAKE UP -0.2 QW points per Tellshow. Georgia must remain at #9 or better BCS. How many BCS spots will GA drop from its' current #7 with a loss?

    Probably depends upon the severity of the loss and AP/ESPN Poll drop ... most likely a #10/#9 ranking in the polls.

    This is truly a shit sandwich for LSU as Georgia looks to drop right ON TOP OF Miami (FL) @ 20.89 Points in the Final BCS Poll for the #9 SPOT.

    LSU could very well be destroyed by its' own hand ... and lose by a hair with a real ass stomping of Georgia ...when a close game can put them in New Orleans. Unbelievable that LSU will make up this much in the Computer Polls & SOS with a win over Georgia.

    comes down to that damned Notre Dame and GA's final BCS rank
     
    ramah, Dec 3, 2003
    #42
  3. aztiger03

    aztiger03 Founding Member

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    I think ND will not win. they are on the road again back to back weeks. I dont see them doing much to the Orange. Oregon State I feel in my gut will beat USC. It will be fun to watch the games
     
    aztiger03, Dec 3, 2003
    #43
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    There are 2 possibilities for LSU in "THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO", where all the favorites win.

    1) USC falls to #4 in 2 polls.
    2) Georgia finishes 9th in the final BCS standings

    USC falling to 4th in 2 polls stands a better chance at happening than does Georgia finishing 9th in the BCS. In the most likely scenario, Miami OH wins their game against a good Bowling Green team. Miami OH is pushing USC in 2 polls for the #3 spot. Also, USC is currently 4th in the Massey poll and is tied with Michigan in the NYTimes poll (if LSU moves to #2 IN NYT, then they are tied for 3rd). There would be 4 polls total in which USC would have at least some chance at finishing 4th. Interestingly enough, if USC ties for 3rd in the NYTimes and is 4th in one other poll, then USC's computer avg. is 2.92 instead of 2.83. This would give LSU #2 in the BCS. Crazy huh?

    As far as Georgia ending up 9th in the BCS, the problem with that is the AP and Coaches will not put a 3 loss Georgia team ahead of either Texas, Tennessee, Ohio State, Florida State or Miami, all of whom have 2 losses. I know they lost twice to the 2003 National Champion LSU Tigers (you like the sound of that, don't ya?), but these people don't care. I will try to make some projections for Georgia with the computer polls, so we can see exactly what the chances are.

    I do agree with you that LSU can be it's own worst enemy this weekend by pummeling Georgia. Then Georgia falls to at least 10th and probably 11th or 12th in the human polls.
     
    islstl, Dec 3, 2003
    #44
  5. TigerFan90

    TigerFan90 Too far away from home

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    Apparently, the scenario where LSU pummels Georgia only to lose ground in the BCS standings is now being referred to as the "LSU Rule." Crazy, huh? :cuss:
     
    TigerFan90, Dec 3, 2003
    #45
  6. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Here is the projection between Miami FL and Georgia in the fight for 9th spot in the BCS:

    ....................Comp.......Media......QW.....Loss.....SOS........Total
    Miami FL.........8.33.......9.00.......-.40........2........0.72.......19.65
    Georgia..........8.83.......10.0.......-.30........3.......0.60........22.13

    Georgia's current computer poll average is 7.33. A drop to 8.83 is more than likely the best you can expect. Miami FL is currently 8.67, I project them moving up in only 2 polls ahead of Georgia.

    In order for Georgia to finish 9th in the BCS, Georgia would have to finish 8th in one human poll, and 9th in the other. Miami FL would have to stay 10th in both, which is where they would be if Georgia can stay ahead of them.

    The only previous history I can use to project the human polls is when Ohio State loss to Michigan on the road. Ohio State was 4th in both polls before the loss. Ohio State dropped to 7th in the coaches and 8th in the AP after the loss. They loss about 250-280 points (if someone can come up with some exact numbers that would be great). This is the exact drop in the polls that we would be wanting for Georgia, 3 spots in one poll and 4 in the other.

    So is Georgia, playing at a supposed "nuetral" site, loses to #3 LSU, are we looking at a similar drop? Ohio State's loss was to a #9 ranked Michigan, but it was a road game. They were beaten pretty soundly, although they made a decent comeback and the game was in doubt to some degree with about 8 minutes left to go. Do the pollsters look at the SEC CG as a "home" game for Georgia? My only problem is when these coaches and press people are looking at these teams and they see that 3 spot in the Georgia loss column, I just think their reflex will be to place them behind all the other 2 loss teams that are currently in the 6-10 spots. If Georgia lost a heart breaker of a game in which LSU had to make some miracle last minute drive to win and Georgia dominated LSU statistically (like 400 yards to 250), then I could see the pollsters giving Georgia the benefit of the doubt and maybe only drop them 2-3 spots instead. Who the hell wants to root for that?

    In conclusion, I guess I would not totally rule out a possibility of a #9 spot for Georgia in the final BCS standings.
     
    islstl, Dec 3, 2003
    #46
  7. TejasTiger

    TejasTiger Founding Member

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    As for the "LSU Rule", I just cannot believe we wouldn't go to #2 in either the AP or ESPN/USA TODAY with a dominant win.

    Georgia hasn't lost by 20 or more points in something like 5 years. To do so in Atlanta under these circumstances would be irresistable to voters.

    At the very least, we'd get solid support from both the south and, I'd imagine, the midwest, with SC strong on both coasts.

    Gosh, sounds like a Presidential election, where instead of red and blue the country may be divided between purple and maroon!
     
    TejasTiger, Dec 3, 2003
    #47
  8. uscpuke

    uscpuke Founding Member

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    Sorry Tejas - I doubt if USC wins by 10 and we win by 30 that any change would happen. If both teams win, I am certain we have to look elsewhere for help, b/c neither poll is going to deliver for LSU.
     
    uscpuke, Dec 3, 2003
    #48
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Finally someone else has a sense of reality.

    To the pollsters, LSU is an ugly cousin of USCs. Nobody wants to date us. We're the ones who have to take our mom as our date to the prom.

    The pollsters can eat shit and die as far as I am concerned.
     
    islstl, Dec 3, 2003
    #49
  10. ramah

    ramah Founding Member

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    So, this is "MOST LIKELY" the end of the Georgia Road and the LSU RULE. LSU has to pray that USC ties for 3rd in the NYTimes and is 4th in one other poll, or 4th in two polls with a final computer average above 2.9, namely 2.92 or higher.

    USC beats a 2.9 Computer Poll average (2.83 or better) and they get Sugar with Georgia @ #10

    So, FINAL ANSWER ... OUR FATE WILL PROBABLY REST WITH THE NYT POLL ... LOL
     
    ramah, Dec 3, 2003
    #50
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