LSU vs. USC for #2 in the BCS.....The definitive answer....Look No Further

No that isn't quite right. Remember you get to drop the worst computer rating. So if USC drops to 4th in only 1 poll (I am assuming it's Massey you are referring to), which is also one of the 5 polls that LSU would be #2 in, then USC would have 2 #2s in the 2 polls that LSU would be #3 in. In which case USC would end up with a 2.67. Otherwise, the rest of your logic was dead on.

If you meant in your post that USC was to be #4 in 2 polls, then you would be correct.

The situation about the tie may not be correct either, unless the BCS will round to only 2 decimals. They show 2 decimals in their polls, but that does not necessarily mean that they do not go out further to get more accuracy in the case of a close call. In this case let's expand to only 3 decimals, LSU would have a 2.166 and USC a 2.833. LSU would get it in his case. The difference is .666 instead of just .66. The final result would be LSU 7.266 and USC 7.273. Incredible, but this may be the case. It actually would not matter in this case since LSU holds the tie-breaker over USC with a win over Georgia (higher ranked than USC victim Washington State).

The only situation where this precision anomaly comes into play is 2.17 and 2.83 or 2.33 and 2.67. Otherwise, 2.17 and 2.67 plus 2.33 and 2.83 (along with the obvious 2.00/2.50/3.00) work out just fine to 2 decimals (they negate each other).

 

Regardless, we win the tie if they do only go to 2 decimals. It's a wash....just an interesting scenario I thought I would throw out there.

 

The percentages are there for those who like to know relative percentages in a given scenario. They are by no means scientific, but I do believe they are about right.

What thread are you referring to?

 

The numbers for the computer polls are fact. The SOS is fact per Rich Tellshow's website. The combinations of wins/losses by the three teams involves projections of the SOS for LSU and USC. Again, it is fact per Rich Tellshow. He actually projects these wins/losses and runs it through the BCS formula for SOS of all teams. There is no guessing here either. The Colley poll is definite. If Syracuse wins, LSU is #2 and if Syracuse loses, LSU is #3 in that poll. LSU is #2 in 3 polls, and will without a doubt hold on to those #2 rankings by playing Georgia. This leaves Billingsley, Wolfe and NYTimes. Billingsley is the easiest of all 7 polls to project by using prior scoring history. I GUARANTEE LSU as #2 in that poll. The NYTimes and Wolfe polls are the only 2 in doubt. LSU has better than 50/50 chance in both polls to come out #2 (my projection). NYTimes rewards recent results and SOS big time, and the run that LSU is on (Ole Miss, Arkansas and Georgia) should land them in 2nd place in that one as well. Wolfe is the one I am worried about most. I still think it's a 70-30 chance in LSU's favor. What helps LSU in this poll is that Georgia is a very strong 5th place (very close to 4th). LSU will get max points for playing Georgia.

So I would say that it's 80 percent fact, and 20 percent "educated" projecting. It is NOT wishful thinking. LSU getting to 2nd in either of the human polls is wishful thinking.

 

I believe our overall chance is a little more than 70 percent. This is more than just a simple guess. You may have to refer to my original post in this thread.

Here is how I arrive at it:

1) Syracuse winning = 45 percent chance (2 point underdog)
2) Chance LSU is #2 if Syracuse wins = 100 percent (all 4 scenarios I listed are in our favor)
3) Syracuse losing = 55 percent chance
4) Chance LSU is #2 if Syracuse loses = 30 percent (1 out of 4 scenarios = 25 percent plus 5 percent for the MiamiOH/BoiseSt. scenario)

Using statistics:

(.45 * 1.00) + (.55 * .30) = .45 + .165 = .615

61.5 percent chance LSU is going to the Sugar Bowl, should they beat Gerogia and USC beat Oregon State.

One more note, assuming LSU wins, if you factor in that Oregon State has about a 10 percent chance of beating USC, then you add that to the equation.

71.5 percent chance that LSU is going to the Sugar Bowl if LSU beats Georgia.