LSU vs. USC for #2 in the BCS.....The definitive answer....Look No Further

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by islstl, Nov 30, 2003.

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  1. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    The original post is updated with the revised SOS for LSU. It looks much better now. We no longer necessarily need Syracuse to win. What a relief.
     
    islstl, Dec 1, 2003
    #21
  2. Jwho77

    Jwho77 Founding Member

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    islsti, your news about the BG/Notre Dame/Boise St. scenario is huge. BG seems to be in great shape to win on their home field, so it comes down to Boise State doing theur thing in Hawaii. Since BSU is much better than Hawaii, I like the Tigers' chances in that scenario.
     
    Jwho77, Dec 1, 2003
    #22
  3. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    I am wondering why is the MAC championship game played at Bowling Green? You guys have confirmation of that? If so, that would be great.

    Also, don't forget the payback factor. Miami of OH tore Bowling Green a new rectum the first time they met, 33-10.

    Bowling Green victory also ensures Georgia finish no lower than 10th in the BCS. So it's a pretty big game for us. It's not necessary for a win, but if we get it, it goes an awful long way. Just the fact that we only need Syracuse OR Boise State to win is just amazing.
     
    islstl, Dec 1, 2003
    #23
  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Well I checked out the MAC website and sure enough Bowling Green gets to play it at home. The first game played between Miami OH and Bowling Green was at Miami. The only other loss for Bowling Green was at Ohio State 24-17, a game in which they could have easily won.

    I am suddenly feeling a whole lot better about this game.
     
    islstl, Dec 2, 2003
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  5. rbear

    rbear Freshman

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    The scenarios you're proposing show a significant jump in LSU's strength of schedule after all is said and done into somewhere in the 30's. Now I'm somewhat BCS retarded but this doesn't seem likely. I'm wondering if this is possible and if so how?
     
    rbear, Dec 2, 2003
    #25
  6. LSUfan

    LSUfan Founding Member

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    islstl, thanks for all the updates and posts. This BCS stuff is impossible to understand sometimes, and the expert college shows can't agree on what will happen . . . but it is nice to get objective facts and numbers to work from, with no biased outlook. Thanks.
     
    LSUfan, Dec 2, 2003
    #26
  7. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    The main problem is these TALKIN HEADS do not have enough intelligence to understand the BCS and then to explain it in a logical manner to its audience. IT IS BEYOND THEM! They take the high road and simply say LSU needs to win one of the 2 media polls. Sad but true.

    As far as your SOS question, Georgia comes in with a 10-1 record for LSU's SOS. Why is this you ask? Because BCS rules states that if you play a team for a 2nd time in the same year, you do not count the W-L result from the first game as part of their record impacting your SOS. In other words, Georgia is 10-1 if you factor out the loss LSU put on them. LSU is not being penalized for beating them earlier this year. A 10-1 record applied to LSU while almost every other team is idle (I think there are only 7 total games this week) is a tremendous boost and LSU is jumping from 54th to possibly as high as 30th in just this one week, and no worse than 33rd. It's doesn't seem possible, you would have to do the math in order to see it. I will apply the math to illustrate.

    The SOS formula is 2/3 (W-L pct of Opps) + 1/3 (W-L pct of Opps' Opps)

    Current SOS for LSU 59-64 opponent's record 763-673 opponent's opponents record
    In this case, LSU's current SOS = 2/3(.4796747) + 1/3(.1771121) = .4968952 = .4969 (round at the 4th decimal)

    Now let's apply Georgia's 10-1 record to LSU's opps record and Georgia opps record to LSU's opps' opps record

    Projected SOS for LSU 69-65 opponent's record 866-748 opponent's opponents record
    In this case, LSU's projected SOS = 2/3(.5149253) + 1/3(.5365551) = .5221349 = .5221 (round to the 4th decimal)

    So you can see going from .4969 to .5221 while everyone above them basically sits idle allows LSU to jump anywhere from 21-24 spots.
     
    islstl, Dec 2, 2003
    #27
  8. SoLa in NoIll

    SoLa in NoIll Founding Member

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    I can just imagine the "BCS Shocker!" headlines if Syracuse would happen to lose, Boise St., LSU and USC each win and everybody would believe USC would edge out LSU -- until the final BCS total was revealed. Wouldn't it be interesting to listen to the talking heads should that happen?
     
    SoLa in NoIll, Dec 2, 2003
    #28
  9. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    Bowling Green would also need to win in that scenario....but yes it would be a shocker.....I am pretty sure everyone thinks that if Notre Dame wins, it's all over.

    God I hope Bowling Green wins Thursday. Then we only need Syracuse OR Boise State to win.
     
    islstl, Dec 2, 2003
    #29
  10. Domanick

    Domanick Founding Member

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    Can you tell me if I am correct on this? I thought of another scenario that I didn't see listed, but would be good for LSU. For discussion, let's say that Bowling Green, Syracuse and Boise State win their games. That would make LSU's SOS 1.20 and USC's SOS 1.44. There's 0.24 off the 1 point gap in the human polls.

    If LSU only got number 2 in 5 of 7 polls, that would make their computer average 2.17, correct? But, even if USC gets a second computer poll in their favor, if they fell to 4th in one of the others their computer average would remain 2.83, correct? That would be a gap of 0.66.

    And if you add 0.66 to the 0.24 (SOS) and 0.10 (QW)... that equals one and it would be an exact tie between LSU and USC. And as I understand it, a tie would go to LSU because they will have beaten the highest ranked team in the BCS (Georgia will be ranked higher than Washington State, USC's best win).

    So, if USC fell to 4 in just one of the other polls, LSU could still finish second even with only 5 computer polls, correct?

    P.S. I am assuming, in this scenario, that OSU would retain their lead over USC in the Massey. If Bowling Green won, that should help OSU in the computers since they played head to head.
     
    Domanick, Dec 2, 2003
    #30
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