LSU vs. USC for #2 in the BCS.....The definitive answer....Look No Further

This post will be updated often....so check back from time to time.

First of all, I will start out by saying that even though I applaud you people emailing the AP writers, contacting coaches, etc., you are merely wasting your time. The AP and ESPN Coaches polls are staying put if USC and LSU win this week. Just to give you an idea, only 4 Coaches changed their mind (out of 63), and only 3 Writers (out of 65). I said this over and over again in my postings. That dog won't hunt.

Now let's turn our attention to the Computer Polls, SOS and QW where LSU still has more than a legitimate chance to make up the ground necessary to overtake USC for 2nd in the BCS.

Note: There are 7 computer polls and you get to drop your worst ranking and you average the remaining 6.

Let's take this one computer poll at a time (commentary follows each ranking):

************ Kenneth Massey *************
1) OU..................5.047
2) LSU.................4.568
3) Ohio State........4.463
4) USC.................4.428
5) Michigan...........4.405

This is the most interesting poll of all. USC drops to 4th (from 3rd) this past week behind Ohio State without either team playing. Here is one reason why there is still a great hope. USC can finish 4th here, and they will be forced to drop this poll. I am attemting to get verification that stats actually effect your rating in this poll. If so, then how badly USC beats up on Oregon State may dictate if USC can overtake 3rd place again, or a poorly played game may result in them ending up 5th. LSU is solid #2 with a win over Georgia in this poll.




************** Jeff Sagarin ***************
1) OU................97.60
2) LSU...............89.05
3) USC...............88.91
4) MiamiOH..........88.16
5) Michigan..........88.14

LSU definitely retains 2nd place. USC more than likely 3rd in this poll. Miami OH win over Bowling Green will put them close to overtaking USC, but I think they will fall short.




*********** Anderson & Hester ************
1) OU................ .820
2) LSU............... .765
3) USC............... .757
4) Miami OH........ .745
5) Texas............ .743

LSU definitely retains 2nd place. Miami OH win over Bowling Green will boost their score, but I still see USC finishing 3rd.




**************** Billingsley ****************
1) OU..................341.420
2) USC.................296.665
3) LSU................ 293.329
4) Michigan.......... 287.786
5) Miami FL...........286.204

LSU is projected to finish 2nd in this poll and USC #3. This poll is solidly set. LSU will gain about 8 points with Georgia win and USC will only get about 3 points with Oregon State win. This projects to 301.3 to 299.7.




************* Colley Matrix ****************
1) OU................... .96392
2) USC................. .86699
3) Ohio State........ .86010
4) LSU................. .85247
5) Florida State..... .84988

This is the critical poll that may decide it all. Going into this past week's play, LSU had been projected to #2 ahead of USC. Because of Alabama loss hurting LSU and helping USC in their SOS, this is now projected to have LSU #3 behind USC. A Syracuse win over Notre Dame vaults LSU into 2nd in this poll, no matter what happens in the Hawaii/Boise State game. A Notre Dame win and we finish 3rd no matter what.




************* New York Times **************
1) OU................. 1.000
2) Michigan......... 0.945
2) USC............... 0.945
4) Texas............ 0.933
5) LSU............... 0.925

This is the 2nd of 3 ciritical polls. I know for a fact that SOS and recent results are weighed heavier in this poll than others. An LSU win over Georgia is huge. I therefore project LSU to 2nd in this poll after beating Georgia. As far as USC, I just do not know the effect of a game against a 6-4 Oregon State has. They could end up 3rd or 4th. Finishing 4th is bad for USC if they finish 4th in Massey poll as well (they can only drop one of these scores).




*************** Peter Wolfe ***************
1) OU.................8.120
2) USC...............6.848
3) LSU................6.763
4) Michigan.........6.712
5) Georgia...........6.678

This is the third in the list of critical polls, since it will be real close rankings. LSU and USC is fighting for 2nd in this poll. LSU should finish 2nd since Georgia is 5th in this same poll.




SCENARIO #1 (Syracuse beats Notre Dame, LSU needs only win 6 of 7 polls...LSU projected to win all 7 polls):

Projected
Winners.......................Comp....Media....SOS.....QW...Loss....Total

BGreen/...........LSU.......2.00.....3.0......1.20.......-.10......1........7.10
BoiseSt............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.44...... .00......1........7.27

MiaOH/.............LSU.......2.00.....3.0.......1.24.....-.10......1........7.14
BoiseSt............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.44..... .00......1........7.27

MiaOH/.............LSU.......2.00.....3.0.......1.24.....-.10......1........7.14
Hawaii..............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.32...... .00.....1........7.15

BGreen/...........LSU.......2.00.....3.0......1.20.......-.10......1........7.10
Hawaii.............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.28...... .00.......1.......7.11



SCENARIO #2 (Notre Dame beats Syracuse, LSU needs only win 6 of 7 polls...LSU projected to win in 6 polls)

Projected
Winners.......................Comp....Media....SOS.....QW...Loss....Total

BGreen/...........LSU.......2.00.....3.0.......1.24.......-.10......1.......7.14
BoiseSt............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.32...... .00.......1.......7.15

MiaOH/.............LSU.......2.00.....3.0.......1.28.......-.10......1.......7.18
BoiseSt............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.32...... .00.......1.......7.15

BGreen/...........LSU.......2.00.....3.0.......1.28......-.10......1........7.18
Hawaii.............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.16..... .00.......1........6.99

MiamiOH/.........LSU.......2.00.....3.0.......1.32......-.10......1........7.22
Hawaii.............USC.......2.83.....2.0.......1.16..... .00.......1........6.99

Note: if USC finishes 4th in 3 polls (almost improbable), then USC's computer polls average is 3.17 instead, the only scenario that LSU takes 2nd in the BCS in those last 2 combos. The MiaOH/BoiseSt combo requires USC to finish 4th in 2 polls (which is slightly possible), or 4th in 1 poll and tied for 3rd in the NYTimes poll.


Here is what we would call a perfect day for LSU fans on Saturday (shown in order of importance and assumes USC win):

1) LSU wins
2) Syracuse beats Notre Dame (guarantees LSU #2 in Colley poll and weakens USC's SOS)
3) Boise St. beats Hawaii (weakens USC's SOS)
4) Bowling Green beats Miami OH (guarantees Georgia no lower than 10th in BCS)

Here are my projections for our chances (assumes LSU and USC wins):
1) Boise St. loses and Syracuse loses - 5 percent
2) Miami OH and Boise St. wins and Syracuse loses - 20 percent (LSU #3 in Colley poll, USC would have to finish 4th in 2 computer polls)
3) Bowling Green and Boise St. wins and Syracuse loses - 65 percent (LSU #3 in Colley poll, LSU wins 6 of 7 computer polls)
4) Boise St. loses, Bowling Green loses and Syracuse wins - 80 percent (LSU #2 in Colley Poll, wins all 7 computer polls but needs only 6)
5) Boise St. wins, Bowling Green loses and Syracuse wins - 85 percent (LSU #2 in Colley poll, Georgia finishing 10th depends on LSU MOV)
6) Boise St. loses, Bowling Green wins and Syracuse wins - 90 percent (LSU #2 in Colley poll, Georgia guaranteed 10th in BCS)
7) Boise St. wins, Bowling Green wins and Syracuse wins - 100 percent (Go to Hell USC)


A further explanation on the Georgia issue. If Bowling Green beats Miami OH, then LSU can beat Georgia 91-0 and Georgia would still finish 10th in the BCS. Conversely, A Miami OH win and an LSU thumping of Georgia has a slight possibily of moving Miami OH to 10th and dropping Georgia to 11th. The reason for this is the media polls could drop Georgia low enough (to 12th or 13th) with a blowout loss instead of dropping them to about 10th place if LSU wins close. Miami OH losing allows Georgia to drop to 14 or 15 in the media polls instead (big difference) and still retain 10th in the BCS. So in other words, let's not count on the media, just have Bowling Green win and get it over with.


TV Lineup (Saturday December 6....A day that will live in infamy):

Notre Dame at Syracuse.......12:00 Noon (ABC)
Oregon State at USC.............3:30 PM (ABC)
Oklahoma/Kansas State.........7:00 PM (ABC)
LSU/Georgia........................7:00 PM (CBS)
Boise State at Hawaii...........10:30 PM (ESPN)

Thursday, December 4
Bowling Green/Miami OH........6:00 PM (ESPN2)


One last observation on the whole BCS thing. Georgia has an even 50-50 chance of leaping over idle Michigan into 2nd in the BCS should they beat LSU and USC lose. Georgia would finish ahead of Michigan in at least 5 computer polls, and their QW of both LSU and Tennessee would offset Michigan's QW of Ohio State. Also Georgia's projected SOS will be .60 vs. Michigan's .52. Georgia would need only the AP or Coaches poll to put them ahead of Michigan (one or the other). It's amazing, but the LSU/Georgia game could be for the Sugar Bowl if USC loses their early 3:30 game.

 

Bowling Green beating Miami OH seals the deal on Georgia finishing in the top 10 however. That would mean Iowa is the closest team to 10th at about a 28 point clip, impossible for Georgia to move that far down, even with a big win by LSU.

 

Thanks. Been working on it long enough.

 

You've.......you've earned it.

 

Thanks for the info, they originally scheduled this game for December 6. I guess ESPN picked it up and they agreed to move it to Thursday. I will update my post.