LSU sits atop Preseason ESPNs FPI- football power index 1.0

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by tirk, Feb 9, 2016.

  1. tirk

    tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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    I dont recall 18 of 22 starters returning on an sec team. let the pressure build.

    Introducing ESPN's Preseason FPI 1.0

    Leonard Fournette and company have a lot to look forward to in 2016.

    11:57 AM ET
    • Sharon Katz, ESPN Stats & Information

    Preseason college football polls certainly have their flaws; generally the same programs end up on top, with the most recent bowl results holding a disproportionate amount of weight in the eyes of voters.

    ESPN Stats & Information created preseason FPI to take the subjectivity out of the process. It uses data that has been found to be predictive of future performance to project how strong each FBS team will be in the coming season.

    In 2014, the first season of FPI’s preseason ratings, the top three teams in preseason FPI –- Florida State, Oregon and Alabama -– made the College Football Playoff. Last season was harder to predict, but every playoff team ranked in the top 20 in the preseason. For more on FPI’s performance last year,read here.

    Heading to the 2016 season, LSU sits atop the first iteration of preseason FPI(there will be multiple updates throughout the offseason), but to understand the Tigers’ projection it is important to make sense of what goes into the ratings.

    What goes into preseason FPI and why?

    Preseason FPI comprises four major components, which, based on statistical modeling, interact with one another to produce a team’s rating.

    The first and most important is prior years’ performance on offense, defense and special teams, with the most recent year counting most. Opponent-adjustedexpected points added (EPA), the backbone of all of ESPN’s college football metrics, is utilized to measure performance in prior seasons.

    Florida, Arkansas and Auburn, so when the full season projections are released this spring, LSU might not even be favored to win the SEC.

    Nevertheless, preseason FPI provides a vehicle to produce unbiased ratings that account for many of the same factors that voters tend to value when producing their preseason rankings –- past performance, returners, talent, etc.

    Preseason FPI also is important from a practical perspective to allow the correct opponent adjustment in the early games of the season and helps with overall prediction accuracy going forward. Stay tuned for the next iteration this spring, preseason FPI 2.0, which will include full season projections and up-to-date starter information.
     
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  2. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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    Said it right when the season ended that if we get the juniors to return this team is gonna fucking loaded like no other, and Bama was losing a lot as is Florida and Ole Miss. Ole Miss had a damn good class though, they didn't have the depth LSU had in the 2016 recruiting class, but they landed some monsters. 2016 will be the year though, Les hasn't a veteran talented team like this since 07. If he can't get it done this year, it's time for him to hang his clipboard up.
     
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  3. lsu-i-like

    lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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    Let the pressure build. The only excuse if Miles fs this one up is money (has that been used before?).
     
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  4. islstl

    islstl Playoff committee is a group of great football men Staff Member

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    that ranking needs to take into account the competence level of the head coach, that drops us out of the top 4 already
     
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  5. LaSalleAve

    LaSalleAve when in doubt, mumble

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    And that's what you will see when the AP and Coaches poll come out next year.

    Herbstreit and the douchebags at ESPN will have LSU in their top 5 because they want him to stay at LSU.
     

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