LSU offense vs. Alabama Offense: A statistical comparison that matters

Averaging a shorter field also affects your average yards per play. As the field gets shorter, the average drops. A more telling comparison is what each team averages per play, depending on where they are in the field.

Code:

Alabama Offense by Field Position
	        Passing Att – Pass Yards, Avg	Rushing Att – Rush Yards, Avg	Total Plays – Yards per Play, Avg
Own 1 – 20	         12 – 158, 13.17 	         31 – 207, 6.68 	         43 – 365, 8.48
Own 21 – 39 	         72 – 545, 7.57	                 79 – 655, 8.29 	        151 – 1200, 7.95
40 – 40 	         61 – 471, 7.72	                 73 – 455, 6.23	                134 – 926, 6.91
Opp 39 – 21 	         47 – 488, 10.38	         56 – 307, 5.48 	        103 – 795, 7.72
Opp 20 – 1 (RZ)	         36 – 165, 4.58 	         75 – 210, 2.80	                111 – 375, 3.37


LSU Offense by Field Position
	        Passing Att – Pass Yards, Avg	Rushing Att – Rush Yards, Avg	Total Plays – Yards per Play, Avg
Own 1 – 20	          8 – 105, 13.13	         32 – 157, 4.90	                 40 – 262, 6.55
Own 21 – 39 	         48 – 267, 5.56	                 77 – 289, 3.75	                125 – 556, 4.48
40 – 40 	         76 – 733, 9.64	                 89 – 460, 5.17	                165 – 1193, 7.23
Opp 39 – 21 	         20 – 200, 10.00	         68 – 344, 5.05	                 88 – 544, 6.18
Opp 20 – 1 (RZ)	         24 – 160, 6.67	                 86 – 262, 3.04	                110 – 422, 3.83

What we see is that LSU has run 339 of its 528 offensive plays (64.2%), and gained 2159 of its 2977 yards (72.5%) between their own 40 yard line and the opponents end zone. That’s an average of 6.37 yards per play.

Conversely, Alabama has run 348 of their 542 offensive plays (64.2%), and gained 2096 of its 3661 yards (57.3%) between their own 40 yard line and the opponents end zone. That’s an average of 6.02 yards per play.

LSU has rushed 243 times for 1066 yards from 40 to end zone, an average of 4.38. Alabama has rushed 204 times for 972 yards from 40 to end zone, an average of 4.76. And you can see that LSU is better rushing the ball in the red zone, averaging 3.04 ypc to Alabama’s 2.80 ypc.

What does this tell us? Pretty simple really. Each team has run the same percentage of plays from their own 40 to their opponents goal line (this was a surprise, I did not expect it), but the difference in yardage is glaring. Alabama has inflated their averages by racking up a ton of yards that don’t matter inside their own 40. From their 40 yard line on, they average fewer yards per play than LSU. It’s easy to see why LSU is the 2nd ranked team in the nation in red zone efficiency, and Alabama is 38th. LSU has run fewer plays than Alabama in the red zone, yet has more yardage (422 to 375) and more touchdowns (31 to 24).

 

You must spread some reputation around before giving it to MobileBengal again.

Wow. Impressive work, MB! The devil is in the details.

 

THAT was really interesting! Thanks for sharing!

Let's play smash-mouth football in the Red Zone all day!

 

Well done! That does tell a story that nobody in the media is talking about.

:thumb::thumb::thumb:

 

ty, ty! :grin:

When I decided to do this, I really didn't know how it would turn out. A Bama fan in my office sent me an email this morning touting Bama RBs gaudy ypc average. I had a feeling that they were inflated somehow, and if I compared more meaningful statistics, our guys would come out much more favorable. I was surprised by the results, though. It came out even better than I thought, especially when comparing total offense and not just rushing offense.

 

Excellent work. Reminds me of how the Football Outsiders analyze things.....

 

You can play contrarian on almost any stat. For example, how many of the aforementioned yards took place with the starters in, or with the game still in doubt for either team. I am also sure 95% of the Bama fans didnt even watch the WVU game in its entirety and they're just looking at the boxscore.

Both teams are pretty similar which is what makes this game exciting, and over-analyzed.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that the majority of the starters are in for red zone offense.....