The Tigers play two scrimmages this weekend. Tulane today, and Southern Miss tomorrow. I'll be very interested in seeing how the kids look after two scrimmages against someone other than themselves. For the Aaron Dotson fans out there, Aaron Dotson is a new man for LSU's basketball team | NOLA.com I hope this kid shows us what he is really capable of. We often underestimate how difficult it is to return after a major surgery like knee or back surgery. Likewise I hope Garrett Green shows us something too this season. Remember there are so many side effects of player development and improvement. It speaks volumes about the coaching that a program gives, and thus, recruiting is impacted. Folks can point to kids like Garrett Green, Dennis Harris and Storm Warren--Brady recruits, but Trent Johnson et al coached.
Agreed. Player development is a huge part of college basketall. To sustain success a program needs to have players develop their bodies(get faster, stronger, jump higher), as well as to learn offensive systems and plays. When a freshman comes in, most of the time they aren't nearly as strong as the players they are going against. It simply takes time. Look at Kevin Durant as the perfect example. He is extremely talented(one of the most talented college players I've seen), but in the NBA he needed time to get his body developed for play there. Now that he's on equal footing with his body, he's ready to be the MVP. There were reports he couldn't bench press 180 before the NBA draft. Now that he obviously had the training, he's going to be a force, moreso than he already is. As for LSU, for now player development is what we will have to pray happens. We gotta home that Trent can develop these players and work them into his system. To have high level success, we are going to need a few recruiting classes with highly rated talent. Coaching and development can lead to sustained success over time, but it's the ultra-talented players that lead to truly great seasons. The mix of ultra-talent and well developed players that fit the system is the desired goal. If everything falls in place, that's when a special season will result.
I am not disagreeing with you. Been saying this all along, establish a base, see what kind of kids Trent can recruit, b/c at some basic level, he is a good coach and will instill a good foundation with the program. If CTJ can recruit on top of what is a good coaching base, the sky is the limit. What I had always had in my mind as questions about Trent's hire were: can Trent adjust to recruiting in the SEC/South? Answer seems to be at this point, yes, pending 2012. And, frankly, the other thing I haven't yet completely come to grips with is, is Trent truly a "top-tier" (that is, Coach K level) kind of in-game coach? I think that's a little bit of an unfair question, b/c frankly at schools like Nevada, Stanford, he didn't have the ideal "ultra-talented" teams, and also because, quite frankly, most schools don't have Coach K. (Of course, LSU is used to the likes of Daddy Dale and CJB ) But, to your point, how many "ultra-talented" recruits did Butler have last year? I guess given your statement, Gordon Hayward, was that "ultra-talented" recruit... that's probably stretching it a little bit, but I generally agree with the point. To win the NC, my theory is you need one or more NBA potential prospects, on a balanced, well coached team (you also need the tourney draw to fall in your favor). That could be LSU in a few years, if the players continue to get better. :geauxtige
Disclaimer: My next point is semi-correct. I can't remember the exact numbers but it was from an article I read in the past and it was a good article and I remember it. If I recall correctly, in the last 25(can't remember exact number) years(slightly outdated now), every NCAA championship team has had at least 3 NBA drafted players, or NBA players that ended up on a roster, except for Syracuse(Carmelo Anthony and Hakim Warrick were the only 2). Other than that, every team has had 3 NBA players. Just the last 10 years, here is what I found: Michigan St 2000- Cleaves, Peterson, Bell(not drafted) Duke 2001- Boozer, Battier, Williams Maryland 2002- Dixon, Blake, Baxter Syracuse 2003- Anthony, Warrick, *no 3rd* UConn 2004- Okafor, Gordon, Boone UNC 2005- May, Felton, McCants UF 2006/7- Noah, Brewer, Horford Kansas 2008- Rush, Chalmers, Arthur UNC 2009- Lawson, Hansbrough, Ellington Duke 2010- Too soon, but might not have 3 Basically the conclusion is that you need 3 NBA players to win the title, although there are times when you won't have 3 but it's not close to the norm. Most of the above teams have more than 3 NBA players or drafted players.
Love the hoops talk. I would generally agree with this statement (i.e., need some "NBA level talent" to win it all). You can debate what is "that level" but bottomline, you need good players to win. That's not terribly controversial. But, how "good" is good? In hoops you need a combination of various elements, scoring, defense, rebounding, etc. if you have those elements, you can be successful as a team. Certain teams and schemes can get by on more or less of each element. You think about Bobby Knight and his teams built around Steve Alford or Keith Smart--not necessarily "ultra-talented" teams but teams with good team concepts, very stingy defenses and the ability to score when needed. During the last decades, the all out recruiting runs of UNC and Florida during their runs would suggest the Williams-Calipari-Donovan type of philosophy (i.e., stockpile McD-AAs and put them in a simple system) will work, provided that these teams stay together for a few years. Where does that leave Trent and LSU? If you look at Brady's 2006 team, he had Tyrus (lottery), Big Baby (2nd round), Tas', G.Temple (free agent). Three of those guys are in the league now. They were a final four team that ran into UCLA (which frankly also had it's NBA players--Arafalo, Farmar, et al). Two years ago, Trent fielded Marcus Thornton, G. Temple and Tas' and some journeymen (don't forget, Chris Johnson actually got some looks from NBA teams). In my opinion, Trent has done more with less. BUT, who is going to get him to that level of talent again? Storm? Malcolm White? Ralston Turner? That's the interesting question. Moreover, are these players draftable because of the success of the team? Arguably yes. Was Mateen Cleeves really that exciting of a guard, like John Wall was? No, but he was showcased when MSU won the title. I see Trent much more in the mold of Bobby Knight or Tom Izzo, than Calipari or Roy Williams. So, I think this. Watch a guy like Dennis Harris, Malcolm White, Aaron Dotson, Ralston Turner, Justin Hamilton, and next year certainly, Johnny O'Bryant. Are these "NBA Level" talents? Yes, they could be. With the right year, right development and team success, LSU and these players might find the right formula for success.
It seems like we agree with each other but are bringing up the opposite reason why on the opposite posts. I really can't predict the future for LSU, because I haven't really seen any of the players except for those that played last year. Even then my opinions wouldn't be good because of the team they played for. Once you lose so many games, I think after a certain point the level of play isn't as high as it would be if they were still fighting for an NIT berth. I'll try to make as many games as possible early in the year. I do think you can win with NBA talent even with median level coaching. I do think that if given the correct match ups, even Kentucky could have won last year. It just happened that they ran into a West Virginia team that had NBA talent that could match them with Kevin Jones, Devin Ebanks, and DeSean Butler. Cold shooting didn't help. In addition to that, defense is a huge part of NCAA winning teams. Duke was extremely effective last year, UNC the year before, Michigan St is, Syracuse's zone, UConn's centers that lead the nation in blocks almost every year, West Virginia's gimmick's even work with the 1-3-1 and running 5 forwards at once. It's all different types of defense, but if they play hard defense they win. Recruiting numbers and stars don't matter as much as you think. There are plenty of 3 stars that become NBA talent. However, 5 stars matter, and recruiting services usually don't miss 5 stars. There are obviously some that don't make it, but a vast majority do. Gotta land 5 stars to have a legit shot at a title. IMO if I'm trying to get recruits, I'm looking at northeast cities first. Baltimore, NYC, Philly, Detroit, and Canada(emerging talent) all have a lot of above average players. South Kent, Brewster, Oak Hill, and DeMatha all seem to have great talent. Even though LSU is far away, I think they could land talent from those areas.
So, I think we agree on many of the same things, but as you say there are different spins on things. Some of these things above, though, I would debate a little harder. I first off do agree that generally very talented teams make up for coaching. You can, frankly point at the Florida championships, UNC's Roy William's era, and to some extent the UConn NC teams, and say that they just had superior talent. Those teams also seemed to score effortlessly--I'd say that those UNC teams scored close to the 90s and folks just couldn't keep up. Sure, they played defense, but that wasn't the heart of their teams. The tourney draw is also huge. The fact that Duke and Butler got through is testament to that. I think with the advent of the "one and done" rule in the NBA, frankly, the game changed a little bit, because in recent years, the teams that "rely" on great recruiting haven't built consistency. UNC, Memphis, Kentucky, try to capitalize with coaches that appeal to one and done players, and simply have a track record of providing a flashy system. The NBA snatches that perceived talent, and those kinds of kids just don't see staying as an option. As Roy or Billy D can attest, it's hard to simply "reload" and capture that lightning in the bottle. I'll be real interested to see what Calipari can do this year. Alot still depends on the team make up of those recruits. I believe last year's Kentucky team was not only a stellar class, but a class that fit together. Is that better than a Michigan State system, where Izzo likes to play Juniors and Seniors and very rarely does he lose a guy "early"? That's then relying on those top 75 type (3 and 4*s) to stay in your system. Along these lines, if you look at Duke's team, frankly I don't get the 5*s argument. You seem to be saying the stars don't matter, but then they do. Look, I don't necessarily put a ton of weight in stars or grade, but I do believe you need good players. That can be a 2* that develops (like Tyrus Thomas), or a 5* that is just good (John Wall). But, frankly, there is a lot in between. I think on Duke's team, Singler was a "decorated" recruit, but Zoubeck, Scheyer, the Plumlee brothers, and others were simply top 50-100 guys. Scheyer developed and was a 4 year player, as was Zoubeck. Now, don't get me wrong, they were still "decorated' players. Look at Butler, there's a more interesting case. None of Hayward, Mack, Howard were 5* or 4* stars. They might have been top 100 to top 150 players. But, they had the right chemistry, right pieces to work together as a team. I think Trent has a few of those types of recruits. In this past class, Derenbecker and Turner could both be considered in that range. Stringer as well, but frankly at 5'5", 5'6", the odds are against him. Dotson, if he develops a more consistent shot, could be in that range. Then you've got some guys that frankly will rely on hard work and development, like Hamilton, Harris, White and Warren. So, I think this is a long way of saying I think the big thing for Trent's team will be chemistry, how hard do these guys play and how well they develop individually. Frankly, they've got better pieces than last year, but will the pieces fit? Lastly, I don't agree that you have to go the Northeast. Frankly, there's enough talent in TX, LA, Miss, AL and GA combined, to have LSU get to the Final Four and beyond. The issue has always been getting that talent all accumulated in one school when other schools are pursuing them, PLUS add the coaching. But, from a recruiting standpoint, Trent is approaching it correctly, get in tight with the right AAU teams in Dallas, Houston, LA, Mississippi, and Atlanta. Sprinkle in the occasional recruit on the West Coast or Midwest. I think again, 2012 will be telling. To me, if the class is 3-4 signees, 2 of them are from LA (Gathers a top 50 recruit, and J. Felix or one of the N.O. SGs a top 100 type of guy), and then, what? A top 50 player from Texas or the West coast would be ideal. I don't necessarily see Trent just going the Calipari route, so we should be hoping for near local top 50 kids that want to play together at LSU. That's enough to be right there competing with the likes of ACC and Big East.
Looks like Trent wasn't too happy with the scrimmages. Alot of little nicks and injuries again, it seems. Which at some level, Trent seems to be indirectly callin' folks out.... We'll see how the kids respond. Johnson Previews Friday's Basketball Scrimmage - LSUsports.net - The Official Web Site of LSU Tigers Athletics
This article goes a little deeper and has a few player quotes... TigerRag - Youthful Tigers still a work in progress
