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LSU can beat Bama with the pass

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by tirk, Jan 8, 2012.

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tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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By KC Joyner

The Tigers will have opportunities to attack Alabama's D through the air

LSU Tigers should attack Alabama Crimson Tide in the passing game - CFB - ESPN

We all know that Les Miles is the kind of coach who has a seemingly endless supply of trickeration plays, and once went for it on fourth down five times in a single contest.

As gutsy as Miles has been in the past, the true test of his risk-taking prowess could occur in the LSU Tigers' upcoming BCS title game matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide.

Alabama's defense is so good that it currently leads the NCAA in scoring defense, passing defense, rushing defense and total defense. It would seem that facing a defense of that caliber would cause Miles to do like he did in the first contest between these two teams and scale back his riverboat gambler mentality.

After reviewing the game tapes and crunching some numbers, however, it becomes clear that there is a risk-taking path Miles can take in this game: throwing vertical passes against the Alabama secondary.

This may come as a surprising game-plan suggestion, seeing as how the LSU offense is mostly defined for its power running game, but the justification for using this tactic stems from how the Crimson Tide coverage group performed in its contests against the Penn State Nittany Lions, Arkansas Razorbacks, Florida Gators (when starting quarterback John Brantley was under center) and LSU.

Check out Alabama's vertical pass defense numbers from those games:

Bama's pass D
How Alabama's defense fared in games against Penn State, Arkansas, Florida and LSU this season.

Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Medium (11-19 yards) 8 12 109 0 0 0 0 9.1
Deep (20-29 yards) 4 13 102 1 2 1 15 8.4
Bomb (30+ yards) 2 6 99 1 2 0 0 16.5
Vertical (11+ yards) 14 31 310 2 4 1 15 10.2
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 6 19 201 2 4 1 15 10.8
A 10.2 vertical YPA would be a solid mark for an NFL team, but this is what the Crimson Tide posted against a slate of collegiate competition and included one mediocre passing offense in Penn State.

It should also be noted that Alabama allowed a nearly 50 percent completion/defensive penalty rate, so these teams were able to connect on a high percentage of their vertical passes in addition to posting a double-digit vertical YPA.

Now consider how LSU's offense fared on vertical passes in its games against the Oregon Ducks, Mississippi State Bulldogs, Kentucky Wildcats, Georgia Bulldogs, Florida, Arkansas and Alabama (all defenses that ranked in the top 40 in the FBS in passer rating allowed):

LSU's passing O
How the Tigers' passing offense fared in games against Oregon, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Georgia, Florida, Arkansas and Alabama this season.

Route Depth Comp Att Yds TD Int Pen Pen Yds YPA
Medium (11-19 yards) 16 25 309 2 0 0 0 12.4
Deep (20-29 yards) 4 15 110 1 2 0 0 7.3
Bomb (30+ yards) 5 12 210 1 0 0 0 17.5
Vertical (11+ yards) 25 52 629 4 2 0 0 12.1
Stretch Vertical (20+ yards) 9 27 320 2 2 0 0 11.9
A 12.1 vertical YPA against this caliber of competition suggests that LSU should be capable of equaling the vertical YPA totals those other teams gained against Alabama's defense.

The issue for the Tigers will be finding a way to take those chances without making any errors. This is very important because Miles' teams are 79-16 whenever they have a turnover margin equal to or better than the opponent (59-8 at LSU), but that mark falls to 24-22 when his teams are on the negative side of that statistic.

This could be a big problem for LSU in that Alabama was able to make those teams pay for the solid vertical YPA mark by being elite ballhawks. They racked up six near interceptions in addition to the four interceptions noted above. Add the two together and it means the Tide had a chance at picking off nearly one out of every five vertical passes thrown against them in these games.

As worrisome as that might be, Miles might be able to take solace in the fact that Jordan Jefferson has made a ton of progress in the area of bad decisions (which is defined as when a quarterback makes a mental mistake with the ball that leads either to a turnover or a near turnover). As noted in a recent Insider article, Jefferson's decision-making has taken a huge step in the right direction this year.

The Tigers could also benefit from the passing counter-punch opportunities that can occur when using the option running game. LSU was successful at running option/read-based plays against Alabama in the first game, and given the Crimson Tide's struggles in stopping that type of offense in a late-season matchup against FCS opponent Georgia Southern (302 rushing yards versus Alabama), it is likely they will use a lot more of that offense in this contest.

The option is known for its ground-game prowess, but, as Bear Bryant himself pointed out in his autobiography, a well-run option attack can also provide one-on-one coverage opportunities in the passing game.

Given the vertical numbers listed above, a few of those chances might be all LSU needs to put up a couple of big plays that could make all of the difference in deciding the outcome of this contest.

All Miles needs to do is decide if he wants to be crazy enough to take the chance.
Click to expand...

tirk, Jan 8, 2012

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Darth Dark Lord of the SEC

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I know CLM said he is sticking to his bread and butter (meaning run) but I believe we will see more passing in this one. He was very conservative in tuscaloser but he will open it up in the dome. jmo

Darth, Jan 8, 2012

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tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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Darth said: ↑

I know CLM said he is sticking to his bread and butter (meaning run) but I believe we will see more passing in this one. He was very conservative in tuscaloser but he will open it up in the dome. jmo
Click to expand...

i dont think there is any doubt. it will likely look a lot like denver. a little read option and more passes vertically.

if it can beat pitt, I think little nickys over aggressive d will pay as well.

tirk, Jan 8, 2012

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GregLSU LSUFANS.com

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And more Hilliard power running mixed with some Ford finesse should tire out those LBers and DBs making passing more efficient.

GregLSU, Jan 8, 2012

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tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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TigersTailgating said: ↑

And more Hilliard power running mixed with some Ford finesse should tire out those LBers and DBs making passing more efficient.
Click to expand...

as big as ford is its clear he prefers to bust it to the outside.

hilliard? no so much.

I sure hope he will soften up the middle and open up everything else.

If JJ can be half-assed effective with no major mistakes, then there should be openings.

tirk, Jan 8, 2012

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Wildcard Veteran Member

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Hilliard wasn't a factor on Nov. 5 and Jefferson came in cold off the bench. Now they are both main players.

I'd love to see an up tempo offense that really takes some big shots downfield and gets Bama's defense on their heels. Get up quick, keep the lead and make Bama play from behind so Mccarron has to throw it a lot. He's forced to pass enough, our secondary will get their fare share of INT's.

Wildcard, Jan 8, 2012

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tirk im the lyrical jessie james

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Ref scouting report for LSU-Alabama

January, 7, 2012

Will Tyrann Mathieu and LSU fare as well against Alabama the second time around?
This isn't exactly the best time to be bugging the men in black and white for opinions. A normally quiet group has found itself in the midst of some very high-profile feuds. First, Pac-12 officiating consultant (and Fox Sports analyst) Mike Pereira called out ESPN analyst Jon Gruden; then, we had the rarest of all officiating occurrences, when ACC coordinator Doug Rhodes publicly questioned the Pac-12 crew in the Sugar Bowl for overturning a would-be Virginia Tech Hokies TD.

Luckily, here at the Zebra Report, we started asking officials for BCS team scouting reports before all Hades broke loose. All season long we've sought the insight of the only people actually allowed on the field with the teams, and the refs' takes have been pretty spot-on. Last week they gave an inside look at the first four BCS bowls.

Now it's time to go to the whistle well one more time for an on-the-field look at the national title contenders. As always, the refs asked for anonymity. You certainly can't blame them. If we've learned anything over the last week, it's that officials are best when they go unnoticed.

LSU Tigers
Offense
SEC umpire: "From where I line up, right square in the middle of the defense, I have a real appreciation of two aspects of every offense. First is team speed. How fast are they coming at me? Second is the overall push at the line of scrimmage. I've seen LSU in person a couple of times this year and they just overwhelm defenses up front.

"That's how they get away with having what amounts to interchangeable skill people, using all those different running backs and two quarterbacks. That line doesn't give a damn who is lining up behind them. They are coached up and know that if they take care of business, everything else will take care of itself.

"Any of the guys in that first November game will tell you, and it was obvious on film, that the first couple of series the Bama defensive line, even as great as they are, kind of looked at each other like, 'Wow, this is different.' And when you are on the road with LSU for a nonconference game, the reaction is more like, 'Well, hell, this isn't fair.'"

Defense
SEC downfield official: "They just swarm, swarm, swarm. It's really interesting because a lot of times when you're in the middle of it it feels like they are just winging it, like there's not a plan. But there certainly is one. When [defensive coordinator] John Chavis was at Tennessee, his defenses were the same way. He lets the athletes be athletes. He would rather they over-pursue and correct than get so preoccupied with details that they can't play. It makes it look chaotic even when it isn't, especially in the red zone where there's so many people crammed into a small space. To me, that's a huge advantage because the Alabama quarterback [AJ McCarron] is the Crimson Tide's weakest link.

"I still think Tyrann Mathieu, as good as he is, can be taken out of the game mentally. His discipline has gotten worse as the season has gone on. We've had to increase our warnings to him to cool off, especially early in the game. He'll be so hyped up in New Orleans that it might not take but just a little smack talk, or even maybe a little too much success, to set him off in the early going."

Special teams
SEC umpire: "For all the talk about the field goals in the first game or even LSU's return game, their punter [Brad Wing] is the biggest difference-maker on either team. There are times on the field where you can almost literally feel the field tilt, and that 72-yarder he had in the first Bama game was a backbreaker. With the exception of big offense plays, there's no better way to alter the emotional mood on the field than special teams. When that kid takes the field to punt, you can feel everyone already backing up, like they're conceding."

Alabama Crimson Tide

AJ McCarron is considered to be the one weak link on Alabama's offense.
Offense
SEC referee: "We all know how good Trent Richardson is. But the key is McCarron. He's a great kid, super-polite during a game, and I think [Nick Saban] and his staff has done the right thing by kind of keeping him out of the spotlight all year. But in a team that has hardly any weaknesses, he's it.

"I wouldn't be surprised at all if he doesn't throw the ball downfield, I mean really downfield, until the second quarter or even the second half. You saw in that Tennessee game they brought him along slowly, let Richardson do all the work, and then opened up the second half with a couple of deep passes. Once he completed those and his confidence showed up, he was a different player.

"On the field you can really feel it when a defense gains confidence and starts moving in closer and closer to the line of scrimmage as the game goes on. If Bama's D can keep it close, then you can think of it as one big 30-minute play-action pass. If they get that defense to inch up the whole game and then find one deep shot for McCarron, it might really open everything up. In other words, they could use Julio Jones to come back.

"Whatever McCarron is going to do, he needs to do it from midfield. Once Alabama crosses the 20-yard line it'll be nearly impossible to get any big gains through the air against LSU."

Defense
SEC linesman: "They are every bit as good as LSU on defense, but being on the field with them is a totally different feel. It's so much more conventional. It looks and feels like an NFL defense, as opposed to that Wild West personality that LSU's defense has.

"They are so good at suckering an offense. They give you a look that appears like it has lanes in it and then it just closes up once the play starts. On the field it's a beautiful thing to watch -- for me, at least. For a quarterback it's a nightmare.

"The most surprising part to me is they don't create a ton of turnovers [Editor's note: Alabama ranks 90th nationally in turnovers gained]. They need to find a couple on Monday night. Even one might end up being the difference. It was the first time, wasn't it?"

Special teams
SEC umpire: "Remember what I said about emotion on special teams? It's as much about confidence as anything else. A lot of times I can tell just by the way a kicking unit walks onto the field whether or not they're going to make a field goal. We all know what happened in the first game, with four Alabama misses. And we've seen the pressure on these kickers in the other bowls. That kid from Alabama was watching those games too. It likely won't take much -- just one early miss -- to wreck his psyche."
Click to expand...

tirk, Jan 8, 2012

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LSUTyga73 Football Connoisseur

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Interesting Parallel...A highly controversial QB known more for running than passing just torched the #1 rated defense in the NFL yesterday. We play the #1 rated D and we have a highly controversial running QB too...

LSUTyga73, Jan 9, 2012

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StaceyO Football Turns Me On

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Can tonight just get here already? So much hype...so much analysis...I'm just ready for game action.

StaceyO, Jan 9, 2012

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northernvatiger Founding Member

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LSUTyga73 said: ↑

Interesting Parallel...A highly controversial QB known more for running than passing just torched the #1 rated defense in the NFL yesterday. We play the #1 rated D and we have a highly controversial running QB too...
Click to expand...

Hmmm... Very interesting.

:geauxtige

northernvatiger, Jan 9, 2012

#10

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