I'm not suprised at all. Using the numbers: AR overall, the score should be LSU 33-14 AR last 4 games, ... LSU 36-17 LSU, first 8 games, .... LSU 30-20, very conservative, given our stats have gotten even better. So ... the score probabilities for LSU are between 30-36, AR score prob., is between 14-20. PUtting them at the center, the most likely score is 33-17, which is a 16 point spread, and that doesn't include any hypothetical 3 point home advantage.
Can you explain your formula again? I remember reading it but can't put 2 & 2 together here in reading this post.
Very surprised by that many points in the spread, but very comforting. This game is always a war, and we've lost 4 straight. Still doesn't completely ease my stomach because everyone is talking like it's a foregone conclusion that we win the next two. This team needs to take this game seriously and the next. Eyes on this week, 2 more and we're in but let's take down ARKY on Friday and move towards the 'Dogs. We're so close; Now is the time to focus.:geauxtige
it's mostly simple power ratings which is about 8 or 9 difference. 3 or 4 for home field advantage and trends a pt or 2. adds up to about 13. prolly sticks around 13 most of the week. the line is not an actual prediction of the final score.
Arkansas is the real deal. I hope we beat them by 50, because we sure owe them one. But I'll take a one point win this Friday and look at Gawga after that.
Formula .... It's all based on how a team performs compared to how they were expected to perform. Go to LSU, and each opponent. Go to points for and points agains for each opponent. Take the game score. SO .. if opponent X normally scores 14 points, and allows 14 points, and the game score was LSU 21, opponent 7, then LSU scored 150% [21/14=150%] of what the opponent normally allows, and LSU held the opponent to 50% [7/14=50%] of what the opponent normally scores. Do this for ALL of LSU's completed games, and come up with an average Offense% and Defense %. Go to next opponent, AR ... what are their Points For and Against. [38,21] Mulitply the 21*offense %. ... this is what LSU should score. Multiply the 38*defense % ... this is what AR should score. For LSU, the offense % through the TN game, was 140%, the defense % was 57%. Using LSU numbers ....[AR 21]*140% = 30, [AR 38]*57%= 21 ... score LSU 30-21. Now do the same process for AR. AR entire season, come out at 148% offense, 92% defense, multiplied by LSU's numbers before this last game [36 points for, 10 points against], comes out 92%*36 points, LSU should score 33 points, 148% * 10, = 14 points, .... LSU 33-14 AR's last 4 games, comes out O - 171%, D - 102%; .. 171%*[10] = 17 points; 102%*[36] = 36 points. .... LSU wins, 36-17 SO ..... Using LSU's percentages, AR's season percentages, and AR's Last 4 games percentages: you get .... AR season - LSU wins, 33-14 AR L4Game - LSU wins 36-17 LSU's -TN - LSU wins 30-21 LSU range, 30-36 [this is conservative, because our stats are actually better since the Bama game, and I stopped compiling after that game] AR range, 14-21. Take the center ....... Game prediction .... LSU 33, AR 17. Clear as mud??? :hihi:
"This game is always a war, and we've lost 4 straight" Well technically no we lost 3 of 4 LSU won in OT in Baton ROuge 2 years ago because their kick was horrible
Thanks for clarifying that for him before I did. I was there that night (it's my profile pic) and it was my kids first game in Tiger Stadium. Man we struggled to win that one and I was so glad we pulled off a win for the kiddos to see!
Apologies, memory slipped me on this one. Thought I remembered us losing to them in Jefferson's 2nd season.
I didn't know that ... :insane: ... Jirk said TR was gonna truck us and Bama would win by 20 ... Maybe he's got the "acorns" to call it Bama by 3 TDs again ... this time in the Dome ... Maybe he'll do a special Turkey Day call for us and pick the Hawgs too
