les miles

We are 8-8 the last two years in the SEC. That's not good however you spin it. Not for a team with LSU's recruiting. Either the recruiting services are way off, or the coaching staff isn't getting the job done.

This will be a critical year. I predict anything more than 4 losses and he's gone IMO. Less than 4 losses he will be fine. If he gets 4 losses?? It depends who the losses are to.

 

We need some clarification about "he will be gone". That can mean (a) he is outright fired following this season pending some outcome or (b) he will be on life support while LSU puts out a lot of feelers, and his contract isn't renewed unless a dramatic turnaround happens. I'm curious how many are in each camp.

Personally, I think it would take .500 or lower for outright firing to occur. If we go yet another season dropping 3 to Ole Miss, Florida and Bama, Les is well on his way to (b). Add another loss to Arky and the heat gets turned up even further. If LSU wins 2 of those 4 games but not more, there's a big gray area.

 

This, this, this, a thousand times. I get so sick of hearing the 8-8 stat. That's an indication of a single bad year, 2008.

 

I'm going to go out on a limb here, and realizing that I may be subjected to ridicule for using this approach, try to analyze the situation logically.

The question before us is: How well should LSU do in battling for national championships, conference championships, and division championships? What is the expected won-lost record over a ten year period?

Although it is possible to dream up a scenario, I think most will agree that LSU will not be in the national championship game without winning the SEC. And, they definitely will not compete in the SECC without winning the division. So, let’s analyze how often LSU should win the division championship over a ten-year period.

Let me start by stating that I mean no disrespect to other teams in the SEC. With the exception of Florida and Alabama, I am deliberately low-balling what is expected of them to give LSU as good a shot as possible.

Is there anybody here who would not expect Arkansas and Ol’ Miss to win the division at least once in a ten-year period? (If history is any indication, this is the norm.) Is there anybody here that does not believe that Auburn can win the division twice in ten years? (Again, history would dictate that this is very likely.) This leaves six years. Is there anybody on this board that would not be happy if LSU split those six years with Alabama? Therefore, statistically, LSU should be expected to win three SEC Western Division championships in any ten-year period.

On to the SEC championship… would anybody gripe if LSU won 50% of the games in which it played for the SEC championship? That means LSU “should” win three SEC championships every 20 years.

National Championship… again, anybody gripe if LSU wins half of the National championship games in which it plays? That means ONE national championship every fifteen years.

Check Miles’ record since he’s been here and compare to what could reasonably be expected…

Now, let’s look at what would be expected won-lost records over a ten-year period.

Anybody unhappy if we win 90% of the games combined against those two schools? (Again, look at history.) Would anybody be unhappy if we won 80% of the games that we played against Ole Miss and Auburn? What about if we won 50% of the games against Alabama and Florida? We play Tennessee and Georgia a total of 8 or nine times in a ten-year period. How about if we win 2/3 of those contests? Of the remaining East Division teams… would anybody be upset if we won 80% of those games?

Out of conference games… we play 40 OOC games in a ten-year period. Assuming that we play someone the caliber of a North Carolina in at least one of those games and the rest are cupcakes… anybody think the sky is falling if we win 70% of the major competition games and win 100% of everything else?

Over a ten-year period, I would expect LSU to lose 25 games. For the sake of discussion, I am assuming that 7-5 and 12-0 seasons are very unlikely. Seasons with 8-4 to 11-1 are all distinct possibilities. If we assume a normal distribution, we can expect over a ten year period

8-4
9-3
9-3
9-3
9-3
10-2
10-2
10-2
10-2
11-1

Since Miles has been here, we’ve had three 10-2 season, one 9-3 season and one 8-4 season. In other words, just about what you would expect. We think of 9-3 as a mediocre year. But, it is really a low-average year. Miles should have lost 12 ½ games, he’s lost 13 (and this with two years of inexperienced quarterbacks). Again, about what you would expect.

If you agree with my assumptions, it seems to me that you have to agree with the conclusions. If you disagree with my conclusions, please tell me with which assumption(s) you disagree.

 

Not that the answer to this question is a new epiphany, but Les will be gone when

A. He gets bought out
B. He has a horrible year (and the definition of horrible is much worse than 9-4 or 8-5, think of DiNardo's last year.)
C. He is directly responsible for a far reaching scandal that implicates numerous players and coaches, and ultimately ends with LSU receiving heavy sanctions

Other than that, The negatigers will have to keep burning incense and praying to the football gods for his removal.

 

Notice that the OP has only one post. He's a troll that came here to stir up $h!t. Now he's sitting back laughing at all the responses he got.

Don't feed the trolls!

 

Exactly. There isn’t an exact formula to decide Mile’s fate. The one given I can think of is if the team continues to digress it could spell his ultimate fate. If the team improves, and that doesn’t necessarily mean a better overall record or an SECCG appearance, Miles will continue to be supported by the administration. Especially if the improvement means wins over at least 2 of the 4 teams that have been slipping past us over the past 2 seasons. Should LSU go as bad as 8-4, but beats 2 out of Bama, Ark, Ole Miss, and UF, especially if it is Bama and Ole Miss, Miles will be fine.

So many want to put together a formula for what would get Miles out of town. Well, why don’t we try and support him and figure out just how we can keep him. I know he isn’t perfect, but nobody is. I know he has made mistakes, but all coaches do. Miles has shown the capability of learning from his mistakes, admitting his mistakes, and correcting his mistakes. I have said this before, we all admit the 2 headed monster for defensive coordinators of 2008 was a mistake, well Miles made a solid hire in Chavez and the rest of the defensive coaching staff and the improvements showed last season. Miles has acknowledged that the offense had issues over the past 2 seasons and he has made some very solid hires to correct those. The talent level isn’t a question, we know we have the talent to compete with anyone. The question is has Miles made the corrections to fix the problems. Well, based on his track record I would say that he has done everything possible to make the proper corrections in order to fix the problems. Whether it be by design or because of coaches and players moving on, Miles has made every effort to put the best people in place in order to restore the level of play we have come to expect out of the Tigers.

All said, as pointed out earlier, I don’t think Miles seat gets any hotter unless we have a colossal meltdown. Rather, in a yr or 2 we will be wishing that he was given more support by the administration and the fans, because he will leave on his own, and part of the reason will be our own fault.

 

Miles ain't going nowhere voluntarily until he decides to retire. Nobody is leaving a coaching job that pays that much on their own no matter how hot the seat is, and I don't see any college teams beating down his door offering him something better. Miles will be the coach here until the AD decides he isn't.

That said, no more troll feedings for me. :thumb: