I have a theory about when the oil starts to run out. When this happens china will sign a NATO style agreement with Iran. China is the top buyer of Iranian oil today. With the world scrambling for the last of the 300$ a barrel oil it would be concievable that china will do what it has to to secure a source. Iran will sell all it's oil to china and only china in turn for an allience. When this happens they will be free to cause havoc in the middle east while not having to worry about the USA because interference could cause an American Chinese war. America would probably be bankrupt with 300$ oil anyway. This is when israel will be at the most risk. Iran could do what they want as long as china has veto power at the un and china protecting their source of oil.
I think the nuclear "genie" cannot be kept away from the Arabs forever. Pakistan already has nuclear weapons and Iran is well on it's way. It's just a matter of time until that happens. Israeli/US policy regarding nuclear states will certainly be different than non-nuclear states. Time is on the Arab's side. Israel's conduct regarding the Palestinians is a sore spot that will not go away and more people in the world have begun to see the US as an imperial power and not the beacon of freedom to the world we were during the Cold War. Distrust of the US government is increasing as populations become more sophisticated/connected through the internet. (For example 90% of Germans don't believe the US gov't regarding 9/11. What do you think the percentages are among the Muslim populations in the Middle East? The Iraq invasion about WMD's that weren't there also hurt US credibility....we've been on quite a roll the last 10 years or so, eh?) 'Real-Politik Ditto': Nearly 90% of Germans don't believe official 9/11 fairy tale... Anyway, with all the unrest in the Middle East and the Anti-American/Israeli sentiment I just can't imagine things settle down into some sort of Pax Americana over the region. No way..... The Iranians aren't going to back down forever....hell they just sent a couple of ships through the Suez for the first time in 30 years. Regarding the use of nukes...I disagree with those that say Israel will not use nukes. I think the Israeli's would not hesitate to use small nukes in a tactical strike on Iran.
Israel sure does have some good looking women in their Army. check this out.. israeli army girls - Google Search
I was in Israel once...just the usual tourist stuff but the women were top notch....much better than London, for example. But the capital of Slovakia takes the cake, from my personal experience. Every third girl looks like a supermodel....they're all over the place. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that a friend of mine drove a motorcycle all over europe one summer. He said Slovakia is chumpsville compared to Riga(Latvia, I think).
I guess we will have to bail them out and fight their war as well. Our friend yet we arm their enemy. Yah that makes sense... Let them handle their own business. Yet another money drain.
This is pure speculation but I get the idea that Obama is might just sell Israel out so bad that the Israelis decide to go it alone.
They've always backed down. They couldn't beat Iraq in a 10-year war. There is no scenario in which Iran fights a modern war with Israel or the US and wins. It's why they are underwriting guerillas and terrorists in Lebanon and Gaza. They are all about posturing. High risk, low payoff.
Basically, I agree with you....I don't think Iran is looking to go toe-to-toe with Israel either. But they seem to be getting pushed into a corner and eventually will have to fight or submit to US/Israeli dominance. I imagine they will stall for time in the hopes of getting a nuclear deterrent but who knows.... One thing I am quite sure of.....at some point there is going to be a conflict and if the Israelis come to the same conclusion it seems to me they would rather have the conflict now, rather than later.
