With the wave of change rolling through the middle east will the new goverments be secular and coexist with isreal or will they all gang up to destroy her. With Iran going nuclear soon will the next Isrealy war be nuclear?
I think it can go either way, its really unsettled. It depends on who ends up in control. I can see how the change could make the 'Street' less angry and more interested in making their own country better. I can also see how it can go the other way. For instance, for all the talk of Iranian dissatisfaction I get the feeling the government mostly has the support of the people. So a couple more countries like that; who knows. If these revolutions don't get hyjacked and really keep focused on making the people's life better, I think that helps Isreal in the long run. But generally speaking, instability is not desirable for Isreal.
two things.... one: this. it depends on which faction gains control. if i new govts are secular and democratic then they will hopefully be interested in doing things like developing jobs and easing poverty, not war. if the islamists gain control, its death to israel, the west, and kiss goodbye to rights for women. two: fixed. i dont think iran has the support of the majority of people. their govt, like many islamic governments, controls through fear. the oppression through violence, especially against women, is so ingrained that imo, most people are afraid to speak out at all. after all, this is a government that is so radically harsh, that women receive lashes - 50 to 80 - just for wearing nail polish. or for showing the bangs of their hair. the oppression is not just through the "elected" government (which is there through rigged elections) but through the religious police. the ayatollah is a religious leader for life and his pronouncements and laws take precedence over that of the president or any elected body. even if the elected body and president make a law, if the ayatollah says the opposite, the opposite is what rules the land as his laws are supreme. the religious fanatics are NOT gonna give up that power so any revolution is fighting against both a government and a religious institution. a religious institution that has had years to brainwash a couple of generations on what constitutes being a "good" muslim.
Isreal , in a joint venture with south Africa , tested an atomic fusion bomb in the Indian ocean. Isreal will not admit or deny being a nuclear power. A scientist is in prison now for spilling the beans to the London times. The latest estimates are that isreal has more than 300 bombs. They have also developed a bomb with a cobolt temper that is very dirty. The US has decided not to field these wepons because the fallout is so bad. One of these will poison a hundred mile radius for a thousand years. Bikini island , where the US tested dozens of hydrogen bombs ( see mike device) can be inhabited for a short time only 40 years removed from the tests. The devices that isreal has will poison the middle east killing Everyone and Noone will be able to go there again. If isreal gets attacked and knows they have lost you can bet your ass that noone will live in the middle east again for thousands of years. I don't think these Muslim fool realize that if isreal falls they will destroy the Muslim world and kill hundreds of millions. We can't say anything bad about it because we invented the theroy of MAD.
It's not likely. The special weapons are best used for deterrence. Ahmanutjob's inflammatory rhetoric is for internal consumption. Iran seeks nuclear capability to keep up with the Jones in their part of the world. India, Pakistan, and Israel all are nuclear armed. As Okie notes, the population is young and restless and Iran is in a poor position to start a shooting war with anybody, much less Israel and they know it. Sanctions still cripple them, they have no logistics, they can't get parts, etc. etc. Iran's game right now is to foment proxy wars through Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. That is what is coming. Hezbollah has 20,000 rockets now including big SCUD's and they will be used at some point. Israel will be forced to respond with withering air strikes and a possible second invasion on Lebanon, which doesn't hurt Iraq, and they get to set back and condemn Israel. Any new revolutionary Arab governments are not going to be in any shape to fight a war with Israel anytime soon. Egypt's army is not equipped or trained for serious combat as demonstrated in Desert Storm, they are a security force and they want no part of another losing war with Israel. Syria is the wild card and they arm Hezbollah along with a more serious army than Egypt. They desperately want the Golan Heights back and until they get it they will always be a threat to Israel. They are probably concerned with internal unrest, too, but any popular movement that takes over in Syria will never drop their legitimate claims to the Golan. I don't buy this legless rumor. Cobalt bomb is a theoretical physics conceptual weapon and no country is known to have ever tried to construct one. It makes no strategic or tactical sense. It ain't that bad. The IAEA's Bikini Advisory Group preliminary findings issued in 1996 contain the following statements with regard to background radiation on Bikini: "It is safe to walk on all of the islands...The Advisory Group reaffirmed: although the residual radioactivity on islands in Bikini Atoll is still higher than on other atolls in the Marshall islands, it is not hazardous to health at the levels measured. Indeed, there are many places in the world where people have been living for generations with higher levels of radioactivity from natural sources - such as the geological surroundings and the sun - than there is now on Bikini Atoll...By all internationally agreed scientific and medical criteria...the air, the land surface, the lagoon water and the drinking water are all safe. There is no radiological risk in visiting the lagoon or the islands. The nuclear weapon tests have left practically no cesium in marine life. The cesium deposited in the lagoon was dispersed in the ocean long ago." I'm calling this a far-fetched myth. It is known that Israel had about a dozen nuclear weapons in the 1973 war, slung under fast fighter-bombers in ready bunkers. It has been said that Arab adversaries were quietly informed that if Israel was in danger of collapse, then there would be mushroom clouds over Mecca and Medina. I think this is still the only deterrent that Israel needs. And I think you forget how serious the Israelis take the legacy of the Holocaust. They are not likely to engage in any sort of genocide.
Anyone who believes that the Arab and Muslim populations in the Middle East are going to come together in quasi-democratic institutions, knit flowers in their hair and make nice with Israel is fooling themselves. Israel is in a bind and they basically have two choices. Either they have war relatively soon (1-3 years) while they have the upper hand or they wait until the balance of power shifts more to the Muslim countries and eventually are forced to recognize a Palastinian state. The Israelis are not going to sit back and watch Iran become a nuclear power....there is a conflict coming, it is just a question of when and because of what trigger and whether or not the US is overtly involved.
This is the same Israel that bitch slapped something like 12 countries in 6 days. I think they will be ok.
What makes you imagine that there is any sort of "balance of power" shift imminent? These arab countries undergoing revolts are not going to be in any shape for war with Israel any time soon, probably never. The US won't be involved in any Israeli pre-emptive strike. And that strike would have to be a nuclear one, because Iran's facilities are buried too deeply for conventional bunker-busting munitions. I don't think Israel is going to use nuclear weapons preemptively. Nobody wants to. Iran will fight Israel hiding behind the skirts of Hezbollah and Hamas.
I got the info about the cobolt bombs and isreal having upwards of 300 total tatical and statigic nukes from wikipedia
