Is the Budget deficit almost closed?

http://www.cbpp.org/files/1-9-13bud2.pdf

I stumbled across this article a few days ago and found it particularly interesting. In essence the author says that our budget deficit woes have been stabilized as of early 2011 and if congress and the President can find another 1.4 trillion in budgetary savings over the next decade we will essentially have balanced the budget. The author points to the fact that while no grand bargain has been reached, the culmination of all the smaller bargains has us imminently close to a balanced budget. I realize this will not fit well with the narrative that many in congress are attempting to purport but it is what it is.

 

Assuming no new spending? Right?

 

As I read it our debt would stabilze as a % of GDP only. That means the debt would continue to grow in absolute terms. Also as the authors noted the CBO estimates can and likely would change in their next estimate.
This is fools' gold and our politicians of both parties would take advantage of it to continue to spend and waste our money.

 

did you read the report, Pride?

can you name any proposed new spending?

 

our debt stabilized as a percent of GDP last year according to the report. The authors do note that the CBO estimates are likely to change but those are likely to change in a favorable way. the most important factor in reducing our budget deficit is economic growth and, albeit very slowly, the economy has grown steadily since early 2010. As unemployment drops and more people pay taxes, deficits shrink also. The article was very clear that politicians need to find another 1.2 trillion in budgetary savings in order to achieve a balanced budget. Since Obama blew his wad like a dumb ass on the tax hike negotiations, these savings will likely come from cuts in defense and medicare/medicaid. In fairness, a balanced budget will likely not happen this year or next year but more so because of the time it takes to wind down a war than anything political.

it's not politically sexy for the republicans for this to be true, especially since if it is true then that will make two democrat presidents who have achieved a balanced budget with a republican wild spender sandwiched in between. this will make it considerably harder for republicans to make the argument that they are the fiscal conservatives. I do not discount your last statement that politicians of both parties will scramble to take credit for this.

 

Well I guess we will see next year. As the thread about athiests has noted give us some evidence.

 

Yes I read it.


You realize this is a projection of no new programs and no new spending.

You think we are just going to let shit ride until 2022?

Really? Can you honestly say that in 10 years nothing will come up? No new president with a legacy to leave?


There is always something we "have" to pay for.


I'm not holding my breath.

 

First the article does not say we will balance the budget. I know you mean balance debt as a percentage of GDP but being as though that ratio is near historic highs, is that really something to strive for? Secondly, as you touched on, the baselines were blown out of the water with the fiscal cliff deal. We probably added at least a couple trillion or more over ten years compared to current baseline. Finally, the cbo projects deficit to GDP to be down to .4% by 2018. That would mean a deficit under $100 billion in just five years. They are projecting increased revenue and decreased spending. It's just not realistic. Ill happily make any wager you want that we will not have a sub $100 billion deficit in 2018. Those ate the types of projections this report is written on.

 

To further support my post, see the link below for cbo budget forecast from 2009.

http://www.cbo.gov/sites/default/files/cbofiles/ftpdocs/99xx/doc9957/01-07-outlook.pdf

 

Yeah, the deal adds 4 trillion over ten years.