It seems that there is a potential opening in relations with Iran. I commend President Obama for taking the chance that the Iranian president is making an offer that he can and will act on. It is in everyone's interest that the president take the chance that it real. However we must be very careful to guard against the potential that Rahanni cannot or will not follow up and act on his offer. We need to remember that the Iranian Republican Guard has been our active opponent in Iraq, Syria and Lebanon for over 30 years. They aided the Iraqi insurgents by supplying arms and providing a refuge in Iran. They built the bombs that killed hundreds of our troops. They are right now supplying arms to Assad in mass and have been Hezbollah's support in Lebanon. Iran and The Gulf Arab states (Saudi Arabia et al ) are mortal enemies so we need to be careful in our actions. That is balanced with the way they helped us in Afghanistan to topple the Taliban and in the early phases of the second Iraqi War. They have been active allies in some very trying times. The point of all of this is while it is a huge risk I think it is worthwhile as I hope the president has the strength and foresight to manage it. If he does then he will deserve all the congratulations and honors he will reap. If he fails he will be open to criticism not for trying but the way he handles it.
BTW I hold to my low opinion of his actions in and how he has phucked up Libya, Syria and other foreign policy efforts.
Yeh until it proves they've sucked up long enough to carry out their hopes of obtaining nukes. Iran can not be trusted and until they totally end their pluntonium enrichment program they can fuck off. Don't trust'em sorry.
This is what scares me about the president. http://www.nydailynews.com/news/politics/obama-close-reaching-nuclear-deal-iran-article-1.1469908 Is he that confident of his ability to talk to people? Has he forgotten that the Ayatollahs and Revolutionary guard have as much or more power than Rahanni does? I know this will set Red and NC off but this is the equivalent of W saying of Putin "I can look into his eyes and see his soul". It falls into his "Red Line" comment about Syria by putting himself out on a limb that can easily be sawed off. It is so premature that it can do more harm than good by setting expectations that may not be able to be met. He may have sealed Rahanni's fate in Iran if the Ayatollahs and R Guard are opposed. I hold to my first comment that he needed to try and deserves acknowledgement....but please let him do a better job and not phuck it up. This requires serious effort not grandstanding.
Rahanni is nothing more than a figure head for the Iranian people, he has no real power. Everyone knows the real ruler of Iran is the Ayatollah, which holds the title of Supreme Ruler of Iran. His word is final, no ifs ands or butts about it. Piss him off and you'll disappear.
Let's put this in perspective: it's one telephone conversation and a good first step. There is a long way to go in resetting relations with Iran although it does appear that this newly elected President is more of a moderate than his predecessor who was just bat shit crazy. Rouhani also acknowledged the Holocaust in his recent UN General Assembly speech. Could it all be a bluff? Sure, we're talking about the Iranians here. Should we all be hopeful that's it not a bluff? Sure. We know there is a growing majority in Iran who are tired of economic sanctions and saber rattling and I am personally hopeful that this new guy is the manifestation of that sentiment but I'll reserve my judgements for now. He's off to a good start; I'll give him that.
The Iranians may be radical but they are not stupid. Even Ahmanutjob was all bluster. Iran is in serious trouble and the nuclear weapon program is boiling down to a national pride thing. They really can't afford it, nuclear weapons are expensive. They also have no allies and are not looking to go to war. But Israel scares the shit out of them, having already pre-empted the nuclear reactors in Syria and Iraq. Moderate Iranians will eventual prevail and their best bet right now is to find a way to get out from under the poison issue of nukes without sacrificing national pride. We just want the silly bastards to stop making trouble and go back to selling us cheap oil. The Iranians desire Israel to not attack them. The USA can help with that. We want the money and munitions going to Hezbollah and Hamas to stop. Iran can help with that. Neither side wants a war. For us, its too expensive and gains us nothing we need. For them, they would be ruined. They have seen what happened in Afghanistan on one side and Iraq on the other side. The point was made. The mullahs hold on power is shakier than ever. Millions of Iranians have gone to college in American and Europe. The sanctions and the international criticism are not popular with the masses. Their economy has been affected and there have been mass protests. They clamp down on dissent and we all know what that generates--rebels. They had a revolution 30 years ago and another one is entirely probably. The Arab Spring did not go unnoticed among the Persians. The Iranian military is a joke. The Iranian army lost a war and a million men versus friggin' Iraq the last time they fought. Their air force and navy cannot control their own airspace or territorial waters. The Syrian civil war adversely affects Iran. Syria is their only true ally and their primary conduit to Hezbollah and Hamas. There is a tremendous amount of bluffing going on in Iran, just as Saddam did.They have capabilities on paper that would be extremely difficult if not impossible to replicate in wartime. They don't have all that many missiles for one thing, they are all subject to countermeasures, but most of all . . . the missile patrol boats and onshore launch sites are all extremely vulnerable to US airpower. The Iranian Air Force cannot control the airspace in the Gulf, not even over their own territory. The Persian Gulf is an American lake in terms of naval power. Any war that Iran fights against Israel, they will lose. Any war that Iran fights against the US, they will lose in spectacular fashion. Any nuclear war that Iran found itself in with Israel or the US would result in the ruination of Iran. They know this. Nuclear weapons really gain them nothing but prestige . . . only nobody respects them. Most of their rhetoric has been designed for internal consumption. Only by using the threats of war with the US or Israel could the Iranians use national pride to keep its rapidly antagonistic anti-government groups focused outwardly instead of inwardly. But now they are motivated to find an exit strategy. More motivated than us. If Obama diplomacy can get WMD's out of Syria and end Iran's nuclear ambitions by using the carrot and the stick, it will be a good thing for all concerned. Even the Russians want the Iranians defanged sharing a border with them.
I always thought for the most part Iranians were very democratic, peace loving, westernized people. Kind of like America are being run by a bunch of radical blowhard right wingers, who are actually the minority.
It's not quite that simple, but you are correct. There is a lot of internal dissent in Iran from very educated and Westernized citizens. But like most of the Middle East, the huge impoverished, out-of-work, and often illiterate muslim lower classes cling to 14th century values and the ayatollahs and jihadists exploit this.
