Iowa Polling

Getting close:

Iowa Republican Presidential Caucus Preference

Bachmann 21%
Paul 14%
Romney 18%
Undecided 10%

 

Bachman will blow it. She's awful and the voters will realize it before any voting begins. The best thing she could do is disappear and certainly never put herself in a position where she has to speak extemporaneously.

 

Romney isn't doing that bad for a mormon who didn't campaign in Iowa.

 

we're a long way away, like 7 months away. Iowa GOP caucus isn't until Feb 2012. and the Iowa-only opinion polls have differed widely over the last 7 months. for example, Paul finished with 14% in that poll, but he's only finished over 9% in two of the other ten Iowa polls since Jan (normally he hovers been 3% and 9%). On the other hand, Romney finishes between 16% and 28% in every Iowa poll this year, usually above 20%. Palin is always between 11% and 15% this year. Bachmann has only come on strong very recently, but Gingrich and Cain both had some very strong runs not too long ago


also keep in mind that last election, this is how the Iowa GOP caucus turned out:

Mike Huckabee 34.4%
Mitt Romney 25.2%
Fred Thompson 13.4%
John McCain 13.1%
Ron Paul 10.0%
Rudy Giuliani 3.5%
Duncan Hunter 0.4%
Alan Keyes 0.1%

while the final nationwide results were:

John McCain 46.5% -- won 31 states
Mitt Romney 22.1% -- won 11 states
Mike Huckabee 20.8% -- won 8 states
others 10.6% -- won 0 states


in the 2011 nationwide polls, this is how the hopefuls have been doing this year:

--Romney is a clear step above everyone else: he finishes between 14% and 35% in every poll, usually over 20% (last three: 22, 20, 18%)

--Bachman: in 26 polls since Jan, she's only hit double digits 6 times, including her last four straight (her last three: 13, 12, 11%)

--Cain: in 19 polls since Jan, he's hit double digits 9 times, including a recent run (now over) of seven straight polls over 10%

--Gingrich: in 30 polls since Jan, he's hit double digits 15 times, including 3 times over 20%

--Palin: in 23 polls since Jan, she been in the double digits 18 times, including 2 times over 20%

--Paul: in 29 polls since Jan, he's hit double digts 12 times (his last three: 7, 7, 7%)

--Perry has just been added to four polls in June/July, and this is how he did in his last three: 14, 14, 13%

--Giuliani: his last four results are: 16, 12, 11, 10% (all during June/July)

--Pawlenty: he hovers between 2% and 9%

--Santorum, Huntsman, Johnson, etc -- 3% and below