I know the answer to this question but saw this in the Advocate this morning and thought it was intresting. LSU’s 2004 recruiting class was poised to be ranked No. 1 nationally, until the Tigers received a letter of intent from Jacob Hester. “I’m the reason we weren’t No. 1,” said Hester, rated only a two-star recruit among LSU’s constellation of four- and five-star blue-chippers. “I signed and we went to No. 2. http://www.2theadvocate.com/sports/lsu/featured/11679501.html I think you could make a case for Hester to be the MVP on potentially the NC Team nd he came in as a 2 star
It is actually pretty accurate and there is no way they can predict the future. They dont know how coaches will use the players or how the players will work to improve themselves. As good as Hester is I doubt they thought hew was going to be a featured tailback. Not in reference to your post, but I dont understand people that bitch about star ratings. Please, you go out and try to do better.
I don't know the case with Hester, but I suspect it's like a lot of kids out there. Two names I've heard the last few weeks are Dallas Thompson and Nick Becton. Both kids aren't not what we recruiting guys would call household names and a lot of that reason is because there just isn't a lot of film out there on these two projected OLmen. I've seen that happen many times where you'll see a kid as a 2-3* player come in and make an impact on the team. Is it the star system failing? I see it more of a situation where the HS coach could have done more to get his players name out there.
This is a good question, and I have no problem revisiting it. The interesting thing to me is that this is the type of question that can be easily researched by stataticians. With all the worthless research out there, it seems to me like some stats major would do a study on it, and tell us. There are 2 major things you could look for in the research. It would take some effort, but you could take the names of every pro-player who was in college and figure out his star rating. This would tell you the percentages of each star category making it to the NFL, (you would have to decide if you wanted your research to test the possiblility of playing in the NFL, and how long, or just making there at all). The other possibility would be to research the success of college teams based on their star rating average for the prior 5 years. This would be much easier to research. There is certainly some correlation between being ranked in the top ten, and having a top ten recruiting class. How strong a correlation is what you would be checking for. IMO the star rating is fairly accurate. Look at USC, last 5 rating classes by rivals were 2,1,1,3,16. Now look at their final AP rankings: 4,1,1,2,4. Of course if you took the average star rating of the bottom 50 programs, it would show that they rarely if ever finish in the top 25. It really comes down to your definition of accuracy. I think they are accurate in telling us if a team will finish ranked, but not really that accurate if you want to know exactly where these teams will finish in the rankings. The thing I care about is getting the best players possible to come to LSU. I have no idea how a few people who work for a ranking service can accurately rank all the numerous players out there. But I do know that certain players stand out, and those are the ones who ususually continue to stand out in college. We just need to continue to get these guys, and send them to the NFL, and our program will continue to be successful. GEAUX TIGERS!!!!!!!!!
I am not opposed to the rating system becuase we have to have some way for scouts to "rank" players ability to have an impact at the next level. There have been and will continue to be a lot post on our upcoming recruiting class and whether or not it is any good. The reason for the post was because Hester was on local TV with those comments as well as in the paper. His comments sheds light on the fact we should have more faith in our recruiters that they have offered the right kids for our system than the talking heads at rivals/scouts...
Good post. That is precisely why I have always said you cannot take a recruit's star ranking as an indication of his ability to contribute to a team. Of course, it is always good to pick up 4 and 5-star prospects, but those 3 and 2-stars athletes can surprise you. The only clear indication of a recruit's talent is determined on the gridiron.
As Corso would say, not so fast my friend... Neither one of which is a true measurement of talent. Impossible, as star ratings only go back to 2002. Recruiting rankings only measure how good individual players will be. They do not figure coaching ability, strength of schedule, or recruiting for position of need. Plus, 5 recruiting classes make up a team. The stand-out players are not usually hard to pick out. Any coaching staff can identify these guys. Getting them is important, but is based mostly on the recruits' location. However, there are only a few of those each year. It's much more important that our coaching staff have the ability to pick out the recruits that don't stand-out but will develop into great players. The recruiting services attempt to measure this, but ultimately you just have to look at the coaching staff's history & hope they are right more than they're wrong.
This is an excellent idea, with a couple of modifications. Don't bother looking at present players in the NFL, just look at the draft for the last four years. It would be very interesing to see the high school star rankings of the draftees and the distrubution tree of stars compared to round taken in the draft. Heck, I would like to see the first round of the 2007 draft and their associated high school stars...
Sel # Player Position School Star Recruit Recruited As Team 1 JaMarcus Russell QB Louisiana State 4 Star QB Oakland Raiders 2 Calvin Johnson WR Georgia Tech 4 Star WR Detroit Lions 3 Joe Thomas OT Wisconsin 4 Star OL Cleveland Browns 4 Gaines Adams DE Clemson 3 Star TE Tampa Bay Buccaneers 5 Levi Brown OT Penn State 4 Star DT Arizona Cardinals 6 LaRon Landry SS Louisiana State 4 Star ATH Washington Redskins 7 Adrian Peterson RB Oklahoma 5 Star RB Minnesota Vikings 8 Jamaal Anderson DE Arkansas 2 Star WR Atlanta Falcons 9 Ted Ginn Jr. WR Ohio State 5 Star DB Miami Dolphins 10 Amobi Okoye DT Louisville 2 Star OL Houston Texans 11 Patrick Willis ILB Mississippi 3 Star LB San Francisco 49ers 12 Marshawn Lynch RB California 4 Star RB Buffalo Bills 13 Adam Carriker NT Nebraska 3 Star DE St. Louis Rams 14 Darrelle Revis CB Pittsburgh 3 Star DB New York Jets 15 Lawrence Timmons LB Florida State 4 Star LB Pittsburgh Steelers 16 Justin Harrell DT Tennessee 4 Star DT Green Bay Packers 17 Jarvis Moss DE Florida 5 Star DE Denver Broncos 18 Leon Hall CB Michigan 4 Star DB Cincinnati Bengals 19 Michael Griffin SS Texas 4 Star DB Tennessee Titans 20 Aaron Ross CB Texas 4 Star DB New York Giants 21 Reggie Nelson FS Florida 4 Star DB Jacksonville Jaguars 22 Brady Quinn QB Notre Dame 4 Star QB Cleveland Browns 23 Dwayne Bowe WR Louisiana State 4 Star WR Kansas City Chiefs 24 Brandon Meriweather DB Miami (Fla.) 3 Star DB New England Patriots 25 Jonathan Beason OLB Miami (Fla.) 4 Star LB Carolina Panthers 26 Anthony Spencer OLB Purdue 3 Star DE Dallas Cowboys 27 Robert Meachem WR Tennessee 5 Star WR New Orleans Saints 28 Joe Staley OT Central Michigan 2 Star TE San Francisco 49ers 29 Ben Grubbs G Auburn 3 Star DE Baltimore Ravens 30 Craig Davis WR Louisiana State 4 Star WR San Diego Chargers 31 Greg Olsen TE Miami (Fla.) 5 Star TE Chicago Bears 32 Anthony Gonzalez WR Ohio State 4 Star DB Indianapolis Colts
