Hoops Post-Mortem (Part 2 of 2): What’s coming and What to hope for.

If you buy part 1 of 2, of my Hoops Post-Mortem, the interesting question for supportive (but critical) LSU hoops fans, is what can we expect from next year? If you assume that Trent is a capable coach, and we owe him a few more years under his contract, Trent is obviously going to be around. And, deep down I do believe he should be—frankly, b/c I think he deep down knew (and Alleva knew) that LSU could struggle this year. That’s simply part of having a team, which had little carry over of leaders and tested players.

That said, I’ve heard Trent be referred to as the “anti-Miles”. It’s an interesting comparison. Here you have a well-respected, decorated basketball coach, who was perhaps given a hall pass on his coaching ability b/c of being established in the Pac-10 and having a SECC in his first year, but who has not really had a great record over the last 3 years, versus the stumblin’, bumblin’ mad hatter who has long-been criticized for his football acumen, but has “quietly” racked up winning season after winning season. Now, the “irony” of the analogy stops there, b/c Miles also had Saban precede him with a NC and a well-stocked fridge of players, and a ton of recruiting momentum. The opposite can be said about Trent’s situation.

The second well-debated point is, well what can change in a year? Afterall, we’re just adding O’Bryant, Hamilton and Isaac right? Well, first let’s start with our own players. I think that folks really underestimate the value of actual playing time on the court and maturation of players within a program. Sure, Eddie Ludwig is not going to become Larry Bird overnight, but in a day and age of “mid major college ball” and the need for well developed 3-4 year men playing ball against 18 year old kids, I don’t think you can overestimate the value of another year for kids.

Case in point, take a look at some of the 4 year scoring averages of some very esteemed LSU players:

Ronald Dupree: Yr 1: 4.9; Yr 2: 17.3; Yr 3: 16.2; Yr 4: 15.8
Darrell Mitchell: Yr 1: 7.0; Yr 2: 11.9; Yr 3: 13.1; Yr 4: 16.8
Ricky Blanton: Yr 1: 3.5; Yr 2: 6.3; Yr 3: 17.0; Yr 4: 20.3
Maurice Carter: Yr 1: 6.6; Yr 2: 9.8; Yr 3: 14.4; Yr 4: 17.3
Anthony Wilson: Yr 1: 2.6; Yr 2: 1.5; Yr 3: 9.6; Yr 4: 16.6
Collis Temple III: Yr 1: 4.0; Yr 2: 14.3; Yr 3: 13.4; Yr 4: 10.8

We cannot always assume from one freshman season that these kids can’t contribute. Let’s not write off people like Aaron Dotson or Eddie Ludwig, or Matt Derenbecker off of a season where they average 6 or 7 points a game. In the case of Aaron, Eddie and Garrett Green, all of them improved in their season statistics this year. I can certainly see Andre Stringer, for example, develop very much in the mold of Darrell Mitchell. Could Ludwig become someone like Ricky Blanton? Probably a stretch, but look at what Anthony Wilson did—he didn’t become a real offensive factor until late in his career. I think we should be optimistic when you have Turner (12 ppg), Stringer (11 ppg) and Derenbecker (7 ppg) establishing decent first year stats.

Second, I think that any really good team has to have balance on the court, both inside and outside presences are the key to having an effective team on both offense and defense. We cannot underestimate the yin and yang of having post-men who command attention, who then can toss the ball back out to three point shooters. Will Johnny O’Bryant and Justin Hamilton add that balance to the team? I hope so—but on size alone, you’d have to say, it forces teams to be worried about LSU’s front line. Will Malcolm White, Storm Warren or Garrett Green, as seniors become more consistent? There’s certainly reason to be hopeful.

Now, does this translate next year to a NCAA bid? Hard to predict obviously, but certainly one’s expectations should be higher. And, that’s where each player’s commitment to offseason work, and the coaching staff’s ability to install and build on what they installed this year, becomes key. I would certainly think that an eighteen win season and NIT, to a 20+ win season and NCAA bid, are what we are shooting for.

But, I think that after a season like we’ve had, it would be neglectful if Trent and Alleva didn’t more closely examine what the staff is getting out of their program. Like Miles in his few “off years”, Trent owes it to the fans to be critical of himself and the program. Here are some candid thoughts I have about improving this offseason.

Injuries/Player Development. I would be asking questions of Juan Pablo Reggiardo. Afterall, hasn’t LSU suffered very unfortunate blows b/c of injuries? Not only have the Tigers suffered in-season injuries, but they’ve also seemed to neglect offseason development. When you’ve got players like Matt Derenbecker and Andre Stringer that HAVE to develop in the offseason (stronger/quicker)and folks that have to stay healthy (Warren, White, Green), I would be looking more closely at beefing up LSU’s hoop conditioning and strength development program. That starts with Juan Pablo and then the players.

Coaching Staff Shake up. I sort of reserved judgment on the impact of Keith Richard’s departure, and Nance’s joining, but I’d guess that to some extent, our coaching staff was downgraded this past year. This is troublesome from two fronts. First, while Nance is likely very experienced, I’m not sure he’s the strategy guy that you hope to get in an experienced benchmate who isn’t counted on for recruiting. Likewise, I wonder if the combination of Donny G, Brent Scott and Nick Robinson isn’t (a) too close to the Trent coaching tree and (b) not adding coaching and recruiting diversity to the staff that you’d like to see. Frankly, you still see a lot of reliance on Trent for recruiting, and while Donny G and Brent do a good amount of recruiting, I’m not sure they’re best suited for that. I’d like to see a new assistant coach that perhaps (a) was an offensive minded bright mind (particularly to add new wrinkles in the offense, including an effective fast break offense), (b) with strong ties to the south, and (c) who can recruit, recruit, recruit. You wonder about former LSU alums who could add something—Randy Livingston has been a popular name with some rumored interest in the job. What about Ron Dupree (coming off a NBA journeyman’s career), Darrell Mitchell out of Europe, Ricky Blanton? A Louisiana hoops guy and LSU alum might serve the staff a little bit better on multiple fronts.

Recruiting is not over… if you go back to part 1, and review my recruiting history chart, I actually am hardest on Trent for that chart---i.e., is LSU signing 3-4 players every year who improve on the last year’s talent, landing some of the best players in LA and the south? With Dennis Harris’s departure, what Trent does with an additional 2011 schollie, will be very key. As reported on our recruiting threads, signing a Dylan Talley out of the JUCO ranks would be HUGE signing for Trent to go along with Hamilton, O’Bryant, and Isaac in 2011. Not only would Talley get an immediate chance to compete, but LSU would have multiple guard options for the next few years, without disrupting a very important 2012 recruiting class. If Ricardo Gathers signs next year with the Tigers and starts a chain reaction, another talent upgrade, you think about someone like Malcolm White giving way to Ricardo Gathers. Wow. Trent has to continue to get pieces in place for the long haul, especially in a time when LA talent is finally catching up to where it used to be.

Lastly, I think we need to start sooner with the hoops “publicity”. LSU can no more concede that hoops is an afterthought. For example, why not do a “Midnight Madness” event at LSU again? Why not schedule a tougher SOS? As we see with this year’s low 5 SEC births, Tennessee gets in based upon a tougher SOS, while Alabama (despite a “good” season, Mr. Grant) is left out again. LSU will have to start taking on tougher opponents to gain credibility and confidence. It’s hard to put LSU on the hoops map, short of winning and winning big, but it’s the little things that we need to do earlier in the season to start winning back fans and respect.

All in all, I’m left a little down, but still optimistic about the direction of LSU basketball. I hope everyone will watch the McD AA game on March 30, where Johnny O’Bryant will play. There are reasons to be excited still about LSU basketball, but I’ll be anxiously awaiting for some interesting off-season news to give me more to chew on.

 

When comparing scoring averages of past and current players, I'd like to also see a minutes comparison. I don't remember relying on guys like Dupree, Mitchell, and Temple as freshmen.

 

That is key...but nothing takes the place of experience. These guys got lots of it as freshman and I know from years past that only helps in seasons to come.

OP...I do think you touched on an issue with coaching and I'll take it further. When we compare football and basketball coaching systems, while basketball can be more hands on for the head coach, he is the head coach and needs to surround himself with quality assistants. The discipline of this team...hell even something as simple as a decent full court press break...was lacking. It's the fundamentals that were in disarray this season. One can only hope it gets fixed because this team was frustrating to watch at times. All of that doesn't fall solely on the shoulders of the HC. Your assts should at least know enough to work with guys as a group and see some progress during the season. The HC is responsible for the overall direction but the assts have to work on the finer points. And it was evident that was a deficiency this season.

 

I believe the basketball scenario can be summed up by the old adage - You've got to have the thoroughbreds to run the race. This certainly applies to both the men and women's basketball programs. The talent level in both programs has slipped significantly therefore the programs have regressed. In your comparison between Miles and Johnson, the obvious answer is talent. Les Miles may not be the greatest Xs & Os guy, but he and his staff bring in top tier talent. LSU is going to win a lot of games simply because the Tigers have better talent than most teams they face. Not the same for Johnson and basketball. I believe Johnson is a good coach but the talent level is not good in my opinion. I've been told by a couple of different sources that Johsnon doesn't deal with Collis Temple. To me that's biting the hand that feeds you. I know some coaches don't want to deal with the whole AAU scene, understandably so, but I believe CT has always had good and honorable intentions when it comes to LSU. Also, when you consider the basketball talent level in the state of Louisiana hasn't been good since Katrina I'm willing to give Johnson a bit of a pass. No slight against the young men, but when your two top players come out of Class 1A Metaire Park - Country Day Cajuns then you have to really do some heavy duty recruiting. That's why I believe Trent needs to reexamine his coaching staff. He's got to find a dynamic recruiter that can go out, shake the trees and bring in players that raise the talent level of the program. In a similar state is the women's program. Pokey Chatman may not have been the best tactician but she brought in the greatest talent in school history and that's why they had great success. Van Chancellor is a highly regarded coach but hasn't been able to bring in the same kind of talent and the program has declined, so much so, they've missed the NCAA Tourney for the first time since 1998.
On another note, I'm tired of people using the "football school" excuse. Florida is a football school and won back-to-back hoops titles and is a #2 seed in the tourney. Ohio State is a football school and is a #1 seed. Also, if both basketball programs continue to decline I don't have much confidence that Joe Alleva will find the answers. You would hope a guy that's been at Duke would be able to have the connections to find great basketball people. However, that scenario is a bit premature at this point.

 

Great recap and analysis. Living in the Houston area, it can be difficult to keep up with the bball team when they're struggling. My optimism might be clouded by the fact that I only saw a few games this year but I really think they can turn it around in a hurry.

Youth and injuries stunted the team's development. With everyone a year older and the big-time recruits/transfers coming in, I expect that they should be an exciting team to watch next year and make the tourney somewhere between a #6-10 seed.

I was expecting bigger things out of White & Green and saw a few flashes but not the consistency. The frontcourt was overall a weakness this year but should be a major strength next year. They can even suffer an injury or transfer now and not have it cripple the team. Seems like they may even need to red-shirt someone if still possible.

 

I agree. While basketball will likely never be as big in the south as football, I think the "football school" excuse has been very overplayed. It will be more difficult to establish a top program in La. at this point in time for practical reasons discussed here, but not setting your sights as high as possible b/c LSU is "just a football school" is a lazy copout.

 

TGer'nLHornLand

You are easily the most thorough poster on this board. Here's to you being right :thumb:.

 

I agree with alot of this. At the same time, I think "talent" is somewhat of a subjective word in basketball. Afterall, Brady I believe was touted as having the Number 1 recruiting class the year he landed Bass, Minor, etc. and it was a class that vastly underperformed, for a Number 1 class. How many "uber-talented" kids are on San Diego State's team, or BYU's team, or Pittsburgh's team. So, I think that moreso in basketball than football, programs that find reasonably good athletes/players and develop them and keep them in school can find success. But, again, folks have to be patient. For the points made in my first post-mortem thread, we agree on one thing, Trent did not get the benefit of what Miles got--no LSU franchise in basketball, no bevy of LA talent to choose from. When Eddie Ludwig is in your top 2 or 3 players in the state, you can agree that LA talent is down. And, as an aside, I don't know what's going on with LSU women's hoops, but frankly, I didn't see Van as not having good recruiting classes--many of his classes are ranked high, in the top 10. Sometimes, that talent doesn't pan out, or the chemistry isn't right.

The thing for me is, are Trent's staff properly evaluating the right things to get players in here to make LSU successful sooner rather than later? For example, I think that Trent underestimated how much more athletic the SEC is than the Pac10. Sure, you want to bring in skilled players who can pass, shoot and rebound, but at the same time, you have to bring in kids with the lateral quickness, hops to keep up with the quickness in the SEC. It's a tough call for example, when we take Matt Derenbecker over Markel Brown, for example. I'm not necessarily saying Matt won't develop into a better player (and he was higher "ranked") but Markel Brown was also very good and athletically there right away. I also agree with you that Trent needs to look at his staff and say, do I have an assistant that really can "seal the deal." While I think recruits generally like the primary recruiters on the staff, Donny G and Brent Scott, are these guys able to seal the deal, get guys in here, like a Butch Pierre could for Brady? Not sure about that just yet--you'd think they're alright since they did ok with the 2010 class, but can they keep that going? Just as important, are these guys actually developing these guys? With as inconsistent as our bigs played this year, for example, how much of that falls on Scott? I do see Donny G as a bright guy, but is he bringing the firepower on the recruiting trail? All questions Trent needs to be examining.

As for the Collis Temple thing, I'm not sure what to make of this. I've read of this "rift" in a few places, but it's mostly board chatter. I think that Collis certainly is an outspoken LSU insider, much like Dale Brown, or others. I just think that Trent is a guy that is very sure of himself and believes he knows what kind of player he needs. Collis may be touting local kids that Trent doesn't like as much as OOS kids. Or, Trent may realize that the better players coming up in the next few years are in N.O. and not Baton Rouge and frankly, LSU does not want to alienate New Orleans like it did in Brady's era. Again, I'm not in the know to understand their relatioship, but I think if both men want LSU to succeed, they'll work together.

 

Yes, here here :yelwink2:

I just do hope that the optimism isn't blind fath! I do think LSU has to be better next year because of the improved front line and a year of experience for the guards. How much better, and how do they gel as a team, are obviously the big questions. Man, if they can land another experienced guard, that would help! Dylan Talley, if you want to help bring back the Magic and be potentially the next Marcus Thornton, here, be a Tiger....

MT, by the way, dropped 45 in Sac's recent win. As much as we can talk about "talent", I have said it before and I'll say it again, a go to scorer, who has no fear, can make a team better all around. We need to find someone on next year's team that can be that guy. I do believe we have the potential with a few guys, bit Trent and staff just need to find a way to unlock it.

 

After the Wichita St. game I thought Turner would develop into that player. It never really happened this year, but next year...