Hoops Post-Mortem (Part 1 of 2): Season ending Grade

I APOLOGIZE IN ADVANCE FOR THIS POST'S LENGTH. ONLY B-BALL FANS AND THOSE THAT WANT AN IN-DEPTH BREAKDOWN OF THE SEASON SHOULD READ....

Ok, a very painful season is over, and as a die-hard “objective” basketball fan, I have to weigh in with a final review. Throughout the season, the debate has raged. Is this team bad, is this coach bad, is there any reason for optimism? Well, we knew one thing, this team was young—objectively ranking within the 20 youngest teams of all of Div 1 basketball. Young, but how talented are we? Malcolm White, an Ole Miss transfer, was supposed to provide punch on the front court. Talented freshmen like Ralston Turner, Matt Derenbecker and Andre Stringer, who were legitimately Rivals top 100 kinds of recruits were supposed to provide optimism. Youth is certainly a factor, but as the saying goes, late in the season, “they ain’t young no more.”

After this season, I’m as disappointed as most of our fans. We won one more SEC game, but lost 20 games (again). I think Trent summed it up after the Auburn loss, frankly as he should have. This was an embarrassment of a season. Keeping it in perspective, though, I think anyone who is a true basketball pundit would appreciate that miracles do not happen overnight, and rebuilding efforts DO take time. First, let’s find the right baseline—LSU was picked by most basketball experts to finish fifth in the SEC West, just above Auburn—we were a bad 10 minutes against Auburn from doing that. In fact, Athlon Sports had this to say about the Tigers, pre-season: “With so much uncertainty in the backcourt and the shortage of height and bulk inside, the Tigers may have to rely on athleticism and more of an up-tempo game than they have in the Johnson’s first two seasons… The good news is that LSU has reloaded well and appears to be equipped to do that. The bad news: The Tigers can’t afford another spate of injuries if they want to avoid a repeat of last season.” Poetic, it seems? Second, let’s just realize that Trent Johnson is a good coach… he has proven that by getting COY in three different leagues, and sometimes good coaches have bad seasons. I think any fan that has actually played sports and understands the game, you realize that good coaches can have bad seasons, despite his coaching—he can have injuries (Warren, Turner), bad luck (MSU shot in Game 1), bad players, etc. Third, let’s acknowledge, whether we like it or not, this job of HC at LSU in 2008 WAS a rebuilding job (in many ways that go beyond the court, i.e., APR, image), and Trent is in his second year of rebuilding effort. Folks may debate that he should have set the world on fire with his recruiting earlier, but if you really go back to when Trent (a Pac-10 coach) was hired, he had to build recruiting momentum from a standstill in 2008 and 2009, when frankly there just weren’t great local recruits. The folks that want Trent’s head should be mindful of the improvement paths of both Trent (at Nevada and Stanford) but also the early building years of Dale Brown, Coach K at Duke, Billy D at Florida, Steve Fisher at SDSU, Kevin Stallings early at Vandy, Gary Williams at Maryland, and the list goes on and on. These coaches all saw at least 2 seasons of subpar records, before finding more consistent records—it takes time to establish a system and players that you recruit into it.

On a macro level, the success of the coach is in what kind of program he runs, results on the court, but also most importantly recruiting. Before we judge Trent a failure, let’s also realize his rebuilding effort was largely a matter of the cards he was dealt… let’s just be objective about LSU hoops recruiting of the recent time frame (*CTJ recruits):

2005-6 Class: Voogd, Rolle, Farrer, C. Johnson
2006-7 Class: Mason (TR), Martin (TR)
2007-8 Class: Randolph, M. Thornton (JC), Spencer, Green, Q. Thornton (JC)
2008-9 Class: Graham, Harris, Warren, C. Bass*
2009-10 Class: White (TR)*, Ludwig*, Dotson*
2010-11 Class: Stringer*, Derenbecker*, Turner*, Courtney*, Hamilton (TR)*
2011-12 Class: O’Bryant*, Isaac*, ?

If you really study this chart, you see that your success in 2009-11 is actually somewhat predetermined by your recruiting success in 2005-8! In Brady’s 2005-2008 years, there was an odd combination of players that weren’t going to be at LSU very long (transfers/one and dones/defectors) or recruits that might not have been SEC caliber players. You also look at what Trent has and is bringing in and you objectively have to say, these are more consistently good recruits, who are likely to be at LSU 3-4 years. Now, he probably has some work to do in 2011—but if he is able to sign a pretty talented JUCO guard, you’d probably say 2011-12 was a good class—and much better than say, Brady’s 2006-7 class.

For folks that think firing a coach trying to rebuild a program is a good recipe for turn-around should think again. LSU has a 5 year contract with Trent, and in his three years, he’s won LSU a SEC championship, fixed the LSU APR issues, and at least brought some level of stability back to the program. The fourth reason to keep Trent is simply, LSU made a promise to him, to see if the Trent experiment would work in 5 years. Let’s see if it does.

But, now let’s be real and let’s be fair. This season was not supposed to be a 11-20 season. I always say judge the season, when the season is over. And well, it certainly was not anything to write home about. There were a few bright spots for a young team, a close loss against Memphis, Wichita St and Miss St (game 1), some competitive games against the SEC’s elite, and pretty bad losses against Nicholls State, North Texas, Rice, and then some pretty big blow-outs in the SEC. If I’m fair, with this team, I am looking for maybe 4-5 more wins from—NSU, North Texas, Auburn (Game 2), Coastal Carolina (FWIW both NTexas and CCU were-bubble NCAA teams, who either won their conference or conference tourney), Rice, maybe another home win, like South Carolina. You obviously don’t win them all, but these games were certainly winnable games.

So, what happened? I think we underestimated the pieces of the puzzle for sure, that is, we just sort of expected Freshmen to be perfect, and M. White to be a low post savior. You can’t complain when Turner is an All-SEC freshman. Stringer started off hot, but struggled down the stretch. Matt D got going slower than expected (due to admittedly some player focus issues at the beginning of the season). These things are on balance were probably right in the norm of freshmen—some flash brilliance, some struggle—but unfortunate on a team relying in large part on them. But, White struggling with foul trouble, free throws and consistency, and Warren’s and Turner’s injuries really hurt. Dotson was better, but probably not 100% mentally (dealing with mom’s cancer). There were times the team played uninspired, searching for a leader. Sometimes with so many “good, solid” players, there’s a tendency for role players to become that, waiting for someone to lead. I think while Trent touted “balance” at the beginning of the year, I think we suffered some from lack of aggression, leadership and courage. On the one hand you could say that’s inexperience, or is it simply the players not being leaders? You could start to see Warren assert himself down the stretch, Turner as well has shown it. Unfortunately, both of these guys were hurt. Derenbecker? Well, he was a counter puncher this year, but he needs to devote himself to improving in the offseason and getting physically ready for SEC ball. Dotson needed to step up but at times vanished. Stringer actually played as to be expected for his game. Primarily a shooting PG in high school, he did that here and early on, he hit his shots. When he started to get guarded, he started to miss. But, I saw improvement in his game as the season went on. While we saw some glimpses of promise from folks like Bass, Green and Ludwig, there was also a lot of inconsistency. Long story short, no one really stepped up and was consistent, or led by example. Player chemistry was likely good, b/c they kept their spirits up but focus wasn’t quite what it needed to be, and you see now what a leader like Tas’ or Garrett Temple, can do for a team. On a team with no seniors, you can only be hopeful that someone will do so next year. Grade to Players: C (handicapped by injury).

What about Trent? Well, lighting a fire under your players is probably, if not a team leader’s job, the responsibility of the coach/coaching staff. I think Trent struggled this year between knowing he had a young team and trying to keep them upbeat and happy, and being a hard-ass that sometimes you need to be. No doubt Trent is a no-nonsense coach, but what I wouldn’t have paid to see these practices. Were they hard enough, were they appropriately managed? On a pure coaching front, I thought Trent tried to adapt, but I think (and this will be examined in my next installment about what’s to come) often when a “fundamental” coach relies on fundamentals, he lacks creativity. Sure, Trent went to a zone midseason, which maybe won us a game or two, but he became predictable. He talked about LSU running more at the beginning of the season, but then, he drifted away from that into more of a lower-scoring zone at times team. To Athlon’s point, the team seemed to fare better when they could play more up tempo and quicker (see games against Memphis and Wichita St)—but was that change due to Turner’s injury or the shooter’s cold spell? LSU’s exposure against presses, inability to at times find a solution for basic hard nosed man, show some unpreparedness in addition to simple player execution--man beating man on rebounds, shots, hustle, etc. Now, only having watched the games this year on the tube, it’s hard for me to pin it on coaching more than simply execution. But, they go hand in hand. There were certainly times when the team showed good offensive plays (weave and cut, or high low plays, screens for shooters), but just couldn’t hit shots. That hopefully will correct itself as players get better and more confident. But, I felt there was something lacking on the coaching side, some fire, some coherent game plan or creativity. Grade for coaching: C-.

All in all, I’m not sure I’m saying anything revolutionary here. Bad season leads to bad grades. But, often we cannot see the building blocks forming in a season and an offseason. On the baseline, we can’t lose sight of the fact that Trent is in year 2 of rebuilding and he’s got a young team that can only get better. Add a few more players in the rights spots, add a lot of maturity and fire, and things can turn around. But, I do think fans have a right to say, Trent, although getting another year or two under his contract, should examine his team and staff and make things right. Next installment, what’s to come.

 

Love your insight, as always. Fans do tend to get impatient seeing results like this, and I'm certainly no exception. Having said that, a 3rd straight year of finishing dead last in the SEC or near the bottom is not going to be acceptable, rebuilding or not. That would be understandable for an ACC bottom-feeder, but not in this league, and especially not in this division. I don't doubt LSU will be better in 2011-12, the question is how much.

 

My outlook is not as positive as yours. Unless O'Bryant and Hamilton are world beaters and Trent signs a top notch jc point guard I don't see next year being a whole lot better. I mean how much will Stringer, Derenbecker and Turner be improved when I honestly was'nt impressed with any of them, they all had their moments but they were few and far between. I have pretty much written of Ludwig and Dotson as I don't think they will ever be major factors in this program and all this falls on the shoulders of TJ because he recruited these guys.
I hope I am wrong because I am as big a LSU bb fan as anyone but thats just my two cents.

 

fans are unreasonable if they are disappointed about the season and concerned about the program. i expected this and i have no idea how you could expect otherwise. you can never hang your hat on incoming freshmen---sometimes they can be depended on to lead the team and consistently score, but almost never. even if white proved to be a dependable 15-10 post player, who was going to score? dotson and bass were useless last year. once spencer was gone the chance of a decent season were gone.

i expect next season to be decent with an outside chance of ncaa tourn (10%). with so many rising sophs, there will be substantial improvement from most/all of them. what the team will have for once in a very long time is experienced depth. the teams over the last 20 years have typically had one shooter and if more there was little post. now there will be three shooters, two experienced backcourt backups, four serviceable post players, and ludwig (who i love), courtney and two incoming fr guards.

if ctj can recruit to keep post players on the roster when lsu loses 3 after next season, the team will be very good in two seasons.

under ctj, this should be the baseline, and when he can get a ringer in, the team will compete nationally.

 

I don't care what the reasons are short of being given the death penalty by the NCAA. Losing 41 games in two seasons is totally unacceptable. Whats the story on Jalen Courtney? Was he redshirted, hurt or wasn't good enough to play on this team? If he isn't good enough to play on "this" team - I'm just sayin. I agree all the players should be better next year but White & Green will never be a feared presence down low & Hamilton was a single digit player at Iowa St. At least that will give us 15 fouls to play with down low. I don't know about Derendecker & Turner, both players had flashes of greatness but had more bad games than good.. Ludwig is slow & can't jump & will always be a spot player sub. Stringer is in over his head I think. The two recruits coming in are a cut above what we have now I think & will help a lot. Trent still needs to get a point guard that can penetrate, dish & score. Whats the story on Andrew Del Piero (the 7ft 2in walk on)? has anyone ever seen him in practice, will he ever play? Trent has some decisions to make. Another losing season ain't gonna cut it.. what say you? Hey, I'm pulling for TJ & the Tigers to be great next year, I just think he's gotta recruit lots better real soon (like yesterday). Cut some players, make some room, do whats gotta be done..

 

I have no worries...20+ wins next season. I'll come back a glout this time next year.

 

We'll be waiting, but I don't think anyone will be holding their breath.:rolleye33:

 

"You must spread some reputation around ..."

Thanks for this. I haven't gotten to read through it yet but I'll return with my thoughts and reactions when I do. I just want so badly for our hoops team to be good again so I love talking about it.

Even when we struggle, there needs to be a pervasive culture of interest from the fan base. I hate when people just shrug and say "bah, we're terrible, who cares?" Because then it will never get better. The fan base is equally to blame for the direction of the program, IMO. Indifference and apathy is just as crippling to the attendance as the poor play. The two go hand in hand. Players need a good crowd to feed off of, and vice versa.

Meanwhile, I'm sure half the student body is updating their facebook status with "GO DUKE! ACC CHAMPS!" comments right now.

 

Four years is enough....

Sort of off topic, for this thread, but perhaps there's some relevance there.

Arkansas fires young, "up and comer" coach John Pelphry.

Arkansas fires Pelphrey after 4 seasons - College Basketball - Rivals.com

You've got some similar dynamics going on here, first Arkansas is MORE of a bball school than LSU. Second, as much as folks say it should be "easy" to win with the resources of LSU, John Pelphry never reached the success that Trent did, despite more resources. I think failing to get into the NCAAs despite reasonably talented teams (teams that would upset UTexas and then lose to bad teams) and losing the interest of fans, led to writing on the wall.

Four years was enough, despite a 7 year contract. It'll be an interesting year for Trent next year, no doubt.

 

See part 2... and discuss.