$hit about hit the fan in BR

Discussion in 'The Tiger's Den' started by Rouxleaux, Nov 9, 2014.

  1. lsu-i-like

    lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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    So if we fumbled the ball five times a game and win at an 80% clip, y'all wouldn't want ball security shored up?
     
  2. @TheBayouBlogger

    @TheBayouBlogger Veteran Member

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    Haha, I'll believe all that when I see it.

    I have a hard time imagining Miles uprooting his family when he has kids in high school and middle school.

    I wasn't a fan of Jimbo as the OC, but obviously he's made progress since then.

    The pantry is bare? Is that a joke?

    Influential people have supposedly been conspiring against Miles for his entire tenure.
     
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  3. Mezmorizor

    Mezmorizor Founding Member

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    That's a completely different scenario though. High turnover rate is always a bad thing. An effective offense can easily appear anemic when you only look at total yards or points scored.

    I'll be rounding to the nearest whole number throughout this whole example outside of one obvious exception.
    LSU TOP ranks*:
    2013: 48
    2012: 39
    2011: 21
    2010: 53
    2009: 108 (**)
    2008: 63
    2007: 8
    2006: 49
    2005: 20

    Median: 48
    Mean(***): 45

    Now let's look at LSU's Total offense ranks for the same time period
    2013: 40
    2012: 84
    2011: 70
    2010: 83
    2009: 107
    2008: 57
    2007: 24
    2006: 10
    2005: 58

    Median: 57.5
    Mean: 59

    And now the graph for both:
    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1NRvBQQcjWJZITG6QBGUiQ_4id94npZlPuJKTJOnROOk/edit?usp=sharing

    As you can see, there's a fairly strong correlation between winning and TOP, but there's little to no correlation between total O and winning. I'm not going to say that the offense can't be improved, but total O appears to be a bad way to measure LSU's offense.

    * I omitted this season, but finishing in the top 10 is likely.
    ** Does anyone know what was up with that year? I know it was a down year, but damn.
    *** Almost included a mean without the obvious outliers, but it appeared to be unnecessary once I graphed the data. For those curious, it was 42 and omitted 2007 and 2009

    Edit: I'm also currently working on doing the same for a few more metrics, so if you see stuff moving in the spreadsheet, that's why.

    Edit 2: Added Scoring offense and YPG rank. Interesting results. I kind of ended up rambling a lot on here, but whatever.
     
    Last edited: Nov 13, 2014
  4. lsu-i-like

    lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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    2009 was jj's first year with the reigns, I guess.

    I like it; a full measure of offensive effectiveness would probably consist of a ratio of multiple metrics. Awful passing should be a metric, but probably not strictly yards. Completion percentage is probably good to look at.
     
  5. Mezmorizor

    Mezmorizor Founding Member

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    I guess.

    Also, sorry about that post. It came way more antagonistic than I intended. All I really wanted to say was that the effectiveness of a football team is a very complicated thing to measure, and the obvious metrics aren't necessarily representative of reality. Definitely agree with you on the offensive metric, but that's a big endeavor that will ultimately make someone a millionaire. Sadly, that person will not be me :(

    Also, updated the spreadsheet with comp % to TOP and comp % to wins. Going to add trend lines real fast.
     
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  6. @TheBayouBlogger

    @TheBayouBlogger Veteran Member

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    True, but if you're behind, you're more likely to throw the ball.
     
  7. mctiger

    mctiger RIP, and thanks for the music Staff Member

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    And is doing better than any of them before him, too.
     
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  8. lsu-i-like

    lsu-i-like Playoff advocate

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    Ain't no thang, we're a bunch of scrappy doos in here.

    If it has to be someone, why not you? There might be a cat-bird seat in Vegas with your name on it. I had a rating system a while back I put a lot of energy into, but unfortunately I had to start paying bills.
     
  9. J Smoove

    J Smoove Veteran Member

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    OMG Kal!!! Is J Lee the only former QB that u like.
     
  10. Kal-El012

    Kal-El012 Founding Member

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    Nah, not just Lee. But I am partial to drop back passers with more brains than foot speed.
     
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