Gumps' score predictions from TideFans.com

in the last 28 games, only 2 offenses have scored more than 14 points on Alabama: 28 pts by 2010 Auburn (Cam Newton) and 24 pts by 2010 LSU (Jefferson/Randle/Ridley)

only 5 of them predict us to score more than 14 this year. meanwhile, all of them but one expect them to put more than 14 on our D, and a lot of them think they will put up a lot more than 14 on our D...


52-3 Bama
42-17 Bama (their last 10 will be on the 2nd and 3rd string)
42-14 Bama
38-9 Bama
38-10 Bama
38-13 Bama
38-13 Bama
35-14 Bama
35-13 Bama
34-6 Bama
34-10 Bama
34-13 Bama
34-13 Bama
34-13 Bama
32-10 Bama
31-3 Bama
31-3 Bama
31-6 Bama
31-6 Bama
31-9 Bama
31-10 Bama
30-6 Bama
28-10 Bama
28-10 Bama
28-10 Bama
28-13 Bama
28-14 Bama
28-17 Bama
27-0 Bama
27-6 Bama
27-9 Bama
27-10 Bama
27-10 Bama
27-10 Bama
27-13 Bama
27-13 Bama
27-13 Bama
26-10 Bama
24-3 Bama
24-6 Bama
24-7 Bama
24-10 Bama
24-10 Bama
24-10 Bama
23-7 Bama
23-9 Bama
23-10 Bama
23-13 Bama
23-16 Bama
21-10 Bama
21-13 Bama
21-17 Bama
23-19 Bama
20-14 Bama
19-7 Bama
18-12 Bama
17-10 Bama
16-7 Bama
16-13 Bama
12-10 Bama

some of their comments:


Last year we struggled to put points on board.. and this year, we're putting up points fast, so I don't see us going to head to head battle with LSU.

Their defense will probably be the best we've seen so far this year, which may slow us down for a series or two, but I don't think our play book has been opened fully. Anybody else notice the formation we lined up in on the Kenny Bell TD? Don't remember seeing that all year.

I think we beat them by 17...minimum.

I think we maul them - seriously. It is the risk of a letdown the next week [vs aTm] that concerns me more.

I think you will see a rerun of the BCS title game (mostly).

That's what I'm thinking except we have more tds than field goals this time

I think this is a repeat of the NC. I think we'll have more trouble with Texas A&M.

We are better at everything than they are and as rested as them as well. I look for total domination from the ones wearing Crimson

We should dominate them like all the other teams we have played. Nothing new to see here folks.

We're better than them in all phases, just like we were last year.

I think this game against LSU could propel AJ McCarron into the head of the Heisman Trophy debate.

LSU is not that good this year not anywhere near the team of LY. Offense is awful except for a couple of RB's. They just have not seen anything like Bama. I know they want pay back but if will to win was all it took MSU would have done much better. CNS has our boys ready & we have too much talent for them. Bama 42, Ex Honey Badgers 14 They get one cheap touchdown late in the 4th.

I think the biggest factor in the game is how weak their QB Mettenberger is. No one really wants to say it, but he's one of the worst starting QB's in the SEC, and especially if he gets rattled early or has to move out of the pocket. Kind of reminds me of that tall goofy big arm QB that Arky had a few years ago (name escapes me). Make him move even a little out of his comfort zone, and he's toast. I look for our LB's and DB's to have a record night with INT's. If we stack the box, netralize their run game, and play man to man and make him try to beat us, we'll have a field day.

In the Saban era, LSU has been the one team that could line up and run the ball on our defense for 150+ yards on us. If they do that this Saturday, then they are in this game for the duration.

If they can run the ball, we'll have a ballgame. If we even do half as well as Florida did in tying them up, our QB is way too good for us not to win the game. And if we can run the ball, the corks in the good stuff come out early.

Amen to that

And, btw, ROLL TIDE! It's GREAT to be a Bama fan these days.
It's like reliving the 70s and getting to show kids, nieces, nephews, etc, what it was like!

 

You have a lot of spare time...

And I'm not really surprised, they can be confident all they want. They are the #1 team and deservedly so. They haven't struggled against anyone the last 2 years except us in BDS last year and now they know the formula to beating us.

 

Barf.

 

they also had an interesting thread last week titled "What Team poses the biggest threat to Alabama?" and the OP said he thinks it will be K State and he posted a link to an ESPN poll on "Which team would cause Alabama the most trouble in the national title game?" (ESPN didn't have LSU as a choice, they only had Florida, K-State, Oklahoma, and Oregon)

well, of the replies to the thread, like 14 of them said that Alabama is their own biggest threat, that nobody could beat them but themselves. but coming in 2nd was LSU was like 10 of them writing stuff such as:


In my opinion the only team in America that has a chance to beat us is LSU simply because they can match up with us physically and the game's in Baton Rouge. You can talk about their lackluster offense etc. but you better believe our toughest game of the season will be played on November 3, 2012. I think Florida, Oregon and especially Kansas State are outstanding teams but I believe we would simply wear them down over the course of four quarters. Should we indeed get to the BCS Title game I think Oregon would be the toughest opponent because we wouldn't have time to do situational substitution on defense and we really kind of thrive on that.

LSU. They're big and physical like us. They will be extremely motivated at home. Their fan base will be even crazier than normal. I still believe we beat them, but this game causes me the most angst.

Their defense is the only defense (IMO) that has the ability to shut down our offense. If it wasn't for their defense they would have racked up three losses already. They keep the game so low scoring the offense doesn't have to do much of anything.

LSU is still a strong team and poses the biggest threat.

I approve this message. I agree that offensively LSU is not as good as last year due in part to injuries and a drop off at QB, but their defense and special teams can still win games for them. If anything LSU plays us more conservatively than any other team, looking for us to make a mistake that they can turn into points. Miles understands that he cannot get into a track meet with Alabama and is content to let his defense and special teams setup his offense with a short field. Miles may be a strange duck, but he is a patient strange duck. That's what always has me concerned.

never discount lsu...


the retort that killed the talk about LSU in the thread was this one:

I'd agree with you if LSU had a decent QB. Mettinberger can't throw well enough if we take away the run game...LSU's only managed one TD against Alabama in the last two games. And with a much better QB than what they've got now.

Actually, it's zero TDs in two games. They've made 3 FGs in 120 minutes of play against Bama.

 

They look better this year than last, and we look worse. I will be rooting with all my might, but I don't feel great about this one.

 

Good, exactly where their heads need to be, so far up their own asses they will never see what hit em. Punch em in the mouth and they will fold up like all wanna be bullies do.

 

But Chavis knows that formula now as well ... and you can bet the defensive genius is at work preparing for all those TE passes, etc.

Their game is more dependent on McCarron this year, with a tight passing game. Yeldon is pretty good, Lacy ... not so much. There D is of course stellar.

I really think our runs need to be targeted at the ends. I just don't see us having tons of success going right up the middle, because their ends clamp inward, causing a big pile up in the middle which allows their LB's time to get in position to stop the play.

Without a doubt, our D is going to have to get in the backfield and put pressure on McCarron. I was watching College Football earlier today, and they were showing the massive pockets that the Bama O-line creates for McCarron. A little pressure changes all that, as well as McCarron's confidence and performance.

 

Yeah, exactly one less than their gay asses.

 

I'm not worried about our defense. Keep in mind they've attempted 9 field goals and scored 1 TD in the last 2 games against us. That's a lot of time on our side of the field. Our offense needs to control the clock a little more and throw on their man coverage (they will be stacking the box).

I'm not sure how effective Ware, Hilliard and Hill will be since they are bruisers going against bruisers. Ford is gonna be the difference maker again (if our O-line can block for him). Anything can happen if we can get pressure on their QB. Should be another great defensive shootout.

 

There are lots of keys to the game. One of the biggest is the offense staying on the field by getting some first downs and some points. If it is 3 and out all night long, the D will eventually wear down like it did at FU.